{"id":213436,"date":"2026-05-27T12:55:22","date_gmt":"2026-05-27T16:55:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/five-econ-contracts-expiring-tomorrow\/"},"modified":"2026-06-10T14:10:15","modified_gmt":"2026-06-10T14:10:15","slug":"five-econ-contracts-expiring-tomorrow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/prediction-market\/five-econ-contracts-expiring-tomorrow\/","title":{"rendered":"Wednesday\u2019s Expectations of Five Econ Contracts: May 27, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>It\u2019s rare to see gross domestic product (GDP) grow in a quarter when corporate profits decline, as the two indicators are strongly correlated. The first three months of the year expanded at a strong 2% annualized rate for GDP, according to a preliminary release, and against this backdrop, there were opportunities in the Interactive Brokers prediction market on Wednesday that, in my view, appeared undervalued. Corporate profits are likely to have been amplified during that time period and have a result well above 0 likely to have been reported on Thursday. Meanwhile, the \u201cYeses\u201d at -2% and 0% on Wednesday were priced at $0.53 and $0.36. They should have carried heavier prices, in my opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"925\" height=\"593\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-75.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - US Corporate Profits \" class=\"wp-image-213437 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-75.png 925w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-75-700x449.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-75-300x192.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-75-768x492.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 925px) 100vw, 925px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 925px; aspect-ratio: 925\/593;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-pce-expected-around-3-8\"><strong>PCE Expected Around 3.8%<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Thursday\u2019s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index was largely expected on Wednesday to be up 3.8% year over year. It\u2019s usually a well-telegraphed indicator since many of its inputs are available from inflation releases earlier in the month. In light of its historically subdued deviation rate, the \u201cYes\u201d at 3.8% was going for $0.24 on Wednesday while the \u201cYes\u201d at 3.6% and the \u201cNo\u201d at 4% were priced at $0.96 and $0.95. Meanwhile, the monthly Reuters poll of 39 forecasters offered some alternative perspectives, as the minimum and maximum projections were 3.7% and 4%, signaling that there was potentially more room for an upside beat rather than a downside miss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"923\" height=\"591\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-76.png\" alt=\"C Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index Line chart\" class=\"wp-image-213440 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-76.png 923w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-76-700x448.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-76-300x192.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-76-768x492.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 923px) 100vw, 923px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 923px; aspect-ratio: 923\/591;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-participants-expect-an-ongoing-reacceleration\"><strong>Participants Expect an Ongoing Reacceleration<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>On Wednesday, participants in the Interactive Brokers prediction market believed that the economy will continue reaccelerating. They priced a 68% chance that Thursday\u2019s Dallas Fed figure release of the gauge would exceed its year-to-date average of 2.6%. Meanwhile, there were 36% and 22% odds of a number ahead of 2.8% or 3%. In 20 observations this year, 2.8% has been beat five times while 2.99%, the highest level of the year, was printed last Thursday. Under, the 2.4% \u201cYes\u201d was at $0.81, a threshold that has been conquered in 15 consecutive weeks.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"925\" height=\"596\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-77.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - Weekly Economic index, line chart\" class=\"wp-image-213438 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-77.png 925w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-77-700x451.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-77-300x193.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-77-768x495.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 925px) 100vw, 925px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 925px; aspect-ratio: 925\/596;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-layoffs-expected-to-be-tempered\"><strong>Layoffs Expected to Be Tempered<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Also on Wednesday, layoffs were expected to be tempered in Thursday\u2019s unemployment claims report, as the ongoing economic expansion has been conducive to continued payroll expansions. The Interactive Brokers prediction market anticipated a number around 212k, closely mirroring the monthly Reuters poll of 39 forecasters. Indeed, the survey\u2019s median is 211k, although there were minimum and maximum projections of 200k and 216k. Against this backdrop, prediction market contracts ahead of the Thursday release priced the \u201cYeses\u201d at 200k and 210k at $0.87 and $0.60, while the \u201cNo\u201d at 220k was at $0.90, signaling a narrow range of potential outcomes, relatively speaking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"927\" height=\"587\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-78.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - US Initial Jobless Claims, Line chart\" class=\"wp-image-213439 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-78.png 927w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-78-700x443.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-78-300x190.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-78-768x486.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 927px) 100vw, 927px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 927px; aspect-ratio: 927\/587;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-new-home-sales-could-be-flat\"><strong>New Home Sales Could Be Flat<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>New home sales are expected to be flat when released tomorrow as heavy mortgage rates, lofty valuations and challenging affordability conditions weigh on construction activity. In March,  682k seasonally adjusted annualized units were sold; however, the April \u201cYeses\u201d across the 600k, 650k, 700k and 750k thresholds are priced at $0.86, $0.61, $0.38 and $0.10, indicating a likely outcome around 670k within the Interactive Brokers prediction market. Similarly, the Reuters poll of 42 forecasters carries a median of 665k, amidst minimum and maximum values of 600k and 710k. This indicator is difficult to project and sustains an elevated deviation rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"924\" height=\"590\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/05\/image-79.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - New Home Sales, line chart\" class=\"wp-image-213441 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-79.png 924w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-79-700x447.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-79-300x192.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-79-768x490.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 924px) 100vw, 924px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 924px; aspect-ratio: 924\/590;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of <a>May 27, 2026.<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Disclaimer:<br>Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It\u2019s rare to see gross domestic product (GDP) grow in a quarter when corporate profits decline, as the two indicators are strongly correlated. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":210699,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3164,146,147,8,12,148,7],"tags":[2139,3396,2162],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":{"0":"post-213436","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-prediction-market","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-corporate-earnings","15":"tag-forecast-contracts","16":"tag-forecast-trader","17":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast 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