{"id":213290,"date":"2026-05-19T10:36:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-19T10:36:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=213290"},"modified":"2026-05-19T11:11:42","modified_gmt":"2026-05-19T11:11:42","slug":"forecasters-narrowly-expected-first-gas-price-decline-in-four-weeks-may-18-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecasters-narrowly-expected-first-gas-price-decline-in-four-weeks-may-18-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecasters Narrowly Expected First Gas Price Decline in Four Weeks: May 18, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Forecasters in the Interactive Brokers prediction market on Monday narrowly expected the first weekly decline in gasoline prices in the past four to hit the wires the following day. The previous print from last Tuesday was $4.50 per gallon. On Monday, the \u201cYes\u201d at that threshold for the Tuesday publication was priced at $0.47, signaling a 53% chance of lessening pain at the pump for the upcoming report. But investors projected the result to be remain in the vicinity, as the \u201cYeses\u201d at $4.45 and $4.55 were going for $0.90 and $0.07, implying a projected headline figure of $4.48, which would mark a marginal $0.02 decrease.<em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"689\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-28-1100x689.png\" alt=\"Forecast contract prices - US Gasoline Prices, Line Chart\" class=\"wp-image-213292 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-28-1100x689.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-28-700x438.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-28-300x188.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-28-768x481.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-28.png 1126w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/689;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em><strong>Canada Housing to Remain Weak <\/strong><\/em><em><strong><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The ongoing slump in the Canadian real estate sector is expected to continue, as the nation\u2019s New Housing Price Index has only reflected one increase in the past 13 months, in February. Forecasters on Monday were downbeat about the subsequent day\u2019s print for April, with the IBKR predictive market pricing just a 4% chance of a number above 0, even though 0 is the median estimate for the upcoming publication. Meanwhile, a beat at 0.1% or over would have returned $1.00 back on a $0.04 investment if it were to come in positive, and that trade on Monday looked like an undervalued, in my opinion. It was simply too cheap to be that close to consensus. Deeper in the minuses, furthermore, participants saw 49% and 86% odds of statistics north of -0.2% or -0.4%.&nbsp; <\/em><em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"685\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-29-1100x685.png\" alt=\"Forecast contract prices - Canada new housing price index\" class=\"wp-image-213293 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-29-1100x685.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-29-700x436.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-29-300x187.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-29-768x478.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-29.png 1126w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/685;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of <a>May 18, 2026.<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Learn more about ForecastEx <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.ie\/predictionmarkets\/en\/home.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Disclaimer:<br>Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Forecasters in the Interactive Brokers prediction market on Monday narrowly expected the first weekly decline in gasoline prices in the past four to hit the wires the following day. The previous print from last Tuesday was $4.50 per gallon. On Monday, the \u201cYes\u201d at that threshold for the Tuesday publication was priced at $0.47, signaling a 53% chance of lessening pain at the pump for the upcoming report. But investors projected the result to be remain in the vicinity, as the \u201cYeses\u201d at $4.45 and $4.55 were going for $0.90 and $0.07, implying a projected headline figure of $4.48, which would mark a marginal $0.02 decrease.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":213291,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3164,7],"tags":[3396,4356],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":{"0":"post-213290","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-traders-insight","9":"tag-forecast-contracts","10":"tag-fr","11":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forecasters Narrowly Expected First Gas Price Decline in Four Weeks: May 18, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/213290\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Forecasters Narrowly Expected First Gas Price Decline in Four Weeks: May 18, 2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Forecasters in the Interactive Brokers prediction market on Monday narrowly expected the first weekly decline in gasoline prices in the past four to hit the wires the following day. The previous print from last Tuesday was $4.50 per gallon. On Monday, the \u201cYes\u201d at that threshold for the Tuesday publication was priced at $0.47, signaling a 53% chance of lessening pain at the pump for the upcoming report. But investors projected the result to be remain in the vicinity, as the \u201cYeses\u201d at $4.45 and $4.55 were going for $0.90 and $0.07, implying a projected headline figure of $4.48, which would mark a marginal $0.02 decrease.\u00a0\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecasters-narrowly-expected-first-gas-price-decline-in-four-weeks-may-18-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus EU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-05-19T10:36:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-05-19T11:11:42+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/gas-pump-featured-img.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jose Torres\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jose Torres\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"Article\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/forecasters-narrowly-expected-first-gas-price-decline-in-four-weeks-may-18-2026\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/forecasters-narrowly-expected-first-gas-price-decline-in-four-weeks-may-18-2026\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Jose Torres\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/92c2be3b6162d92fb996417221509b6e\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"headline\": \"Forecasters Narrowly Expected First Gas Price Decline in Four Weeks: May 18, 2026\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2026-05-19T10:36:00+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2026-05-19T11:11:42+00:00\",\n\t            \"mainEntityOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/forecasters-narrowly-expected-first-gas-price-decline-in-four-weeks-may-18-2026\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"wordCount\": 374,\n\t            \"commentCount\": 0,\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/forecasters-narrowly-expected-first-gas-price-decline-in-four-weeks-may-18-2026\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/3\\\/2026\\\/05\\\/gas-pump-featured-img.jpg\",\n\t            \"keywords\": [\n\t                \"forecast contracts\",\n\t                \"fr\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"articleSection\": [\n\t                \"IBKR ForecastTrader\",\n\t                \"Traders' Insight\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"CommentAction\",\n\t                    \"name\": \"Comment\",\n\t                    \"target\": [\n\t                        \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/forecasters-narrowly-expected-first-gas-price-decline-in-four-weeks-may-18-2026\\\/#respond\"\n\t                    ]\n\t                }\n\t            ]\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/forecasters-narrowly-expected-first-gas-price-decline-in-four-weeks-may-18-2026\\\/\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/forecasters-narrowly-expected-first-gas-price-decline-in-four-weeks-may-18-2026\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"Forecasters Narrowly Expected First Gas Price Decline in Four Weeks: May 18, 2026 - 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In this capacity, he is responsible for economic analysis, economic commentary and educational content focused on the economy. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Jos\u00e9 spent 6 years working as an economist in the United States government within the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). During his time with the U.S. government, Jos\u00e9 frequently led presentations covering economic conditions and forecasts for elected officials, political appointees and senior management. He also built economic models, consulted with private sector executives, contributed to the modernization of economic processes and gained recognition for predicting the inflationary episode of the 2020s. Jos\u00e9 has also been a professor of economics at the City University of New York and holds a master\u2019s degree in financial economics from West Texas A&amp;M University. His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\\\/campus\\\/author\\\/jose-torres\\\/\"\n\t        }\n\t    ]\n\t}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Forecasters Narrowly Expected First Gas Price Decline in Four Weeks: May 18, 2026","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/213290\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Forecasters Narrowly Expected First Gas Price Decline in Four Weeks: May 18, 2026","og_description":"Forecasters in the Interactive Brokers prediction market on Monday narrowly expected the first weekly decline in gasoline prices in the past four to hit the wires the following day. The previous print from last Tuesday was $4.50 per gallon. On Monday, the \u201cYes\u201d at that threshold for the Tuesday publication was priced at $0.47, signaling a 53% chance of lessening pain at the pump for the upcoming report. But investors projected the result to be remain in the vicinity, as the \u201cYeses\u201d at $4.45 and $4.55 were going for $0.90 and $0.07, implying a projected headline figure of $4.48, which would mark a marginal $0.02 decrease.\u00a0","og_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecasters-narrowly-expected-first-gas-price-decline-in-four-weeks-may-18-2026\/","og_site_name":"IBKR Campus EU","article_published_time":"2026-05-19T10:36:00+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-05-19T11:11:42+00:00","og_image":[{"width":1000,"height":563,"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/gas-pump-featured-img.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Jose Torres","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Jose Torres","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecasters-narrowly-expected-first-gas-price-decline-in-four-weeks-may-18-2026\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecasters-narrowly-expected-first-gas-price-decline-in-four-weeks-may-18-2026\/"},"author":{"name":"Jose Torres","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/#\/schema\/person\/92c2be3b6162d92fb996417221509b6e"},"headline":"Forecasters Narrowly Expected First Gas Price Decline in Four Weeks: May 18, 2026","datePublished":"2026-05-19T10:36:00+00:00","dateModified":"2026-05-19T11:11:42+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecasters-narrowly-expected-first-gas-price-decline-in-four-weeks-may-18-2026\/"},"wordCount":374,"commentCount":0,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecasters-narrowly-expected-first-gas-price-decline-in-four-weeks-may-18-2026\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/gas-pump-featured-img.jpg","keywords":["forecast contracts","fr"],"articleSection":["IBKR ForecastTrader","Traders' Insight"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecasters-narrowly-expected-first-gas-price-decline-in-four-weeks-may-18-2026\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecasters-narrowly-expected-first-gas-price-decline-in-four-weeks-may-18-2026\/","url":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecasters-narrowly-expected-first-gas-price-decline-in-four-weeks-may-18-2026\/","name":"Forecasters Narrowly Expected First Gas Price Decline in Four Weeks: May 18, 2026 - 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In this capacity, he is responsible for economic analysis, economic commentary and educational content focused on the economy. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Jos\u00e9 spent 6 years working as an economist in the United States government within the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). During his time with the U.S. government, Jos\u00e9 frequently led presentations covering economic conditions and forecasts for elected officials, political appointees and senior management. He also built economic models, consulted with private sector executives, contributed to the modernization of economic processes and gained recognition for predicting the inflationary episode of the 2020s. Jos\u00e9 has also been a professor of economics at the City University of New York and holds a master\u2019s degree in financial economics from West Texas A&amp;M University. His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.","url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/author\/jose-torres\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/gas-pump-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/213290","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/903"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=213290"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/213290\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/213291"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=213290"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=213290"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=213290"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=213290"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}