{"id":213198,"date":"2026-05-13T09:22:32","date_gmt":"2026-05-13T09:22:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=213198"},"modified":"2026-06-12T08:46:28","modified_gmt":"2026-06-12T08:46:28","slug":"us-ppi-and-4-4-ibkr-predictive-market-threshold-may-12-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/us-ppi-and-4-4-ibkr-predictive-market-threshold-may-12-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"US PPI and 4.4% IBKR Predictive Market Threshold: May 12, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The IBKR prediction market on Tuesday depicted a 59% chance that the US Producer Price Index (PPI) would exceed 4.4% when released the following day. It was a low bar when analyzing the gauge\u2019s sensitivity to rising food and energy costs. Additionally, the monthly Reuter\u2019s poll of 21 forecasters stood at a median of 4.9%, or 50 basis points north of the 4.4% threshold. In my view, the $0.59 price for the \u201cYes\u201d at the 4.4% threshold was undervalued, even as the minimum projection in the survey was 4.2%. Consider the following:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The March print reflected the impact of higher oil prices, but since then, rising energy costs have further spread throughout the economy as demonstrated by Tuesday\u2019s hotter-than-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI). In a similar manner to the CPI, the spreading impact of higher energy costs throughout the economy had potential to push the Wednesday\u2019s PPI release considerably higher than 4.4%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The PPI is more levered to food and energy than the CPI and it is a relatively volatile indicator. The PPI, therefore, was poised to accelerate at a much faster pace than the CPI, which was 3.8% Tuesday morning. For context, March\u2019s CPI and PPI numbers were 3.3% and 4%.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Additionally, March\u2019s PPI results seemed subdued and were a colossal downside miss, as those loftier fuel charges potentially hadn\u2019t fully made it through supply chains, positioning Wednesday\u2019s print to possibly beat to the upside.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For investors seeking exposure to \u201cYes\u201d offerings with lower hurdles, the IBKR prediction market included contracts with thresholds of 4% and 4.2% that were priced at $0.86, $0.73 and were also undervalued, in my opinion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"819\" height=\"448\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-20.png\" alt=\"US Producer Price Index - Line Chart\" class=\"wp-image-213199 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-20.png 819w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-20-700x383.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-20-300x164.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-20-768x420.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 819px) 100vw, 819px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 819px; aspect-ratio: 819\/448;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"221\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-21.png\" alt=\"US Producer price index, prediction contracts\" class=\"wp-image-213200 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-21.png 975w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-21-700x159.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-21-300x68.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-21-768x174.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 975px) 100vw, 975px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 975px; aspect-ratio: 975\/221;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of <a>May 12, 2026.<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Learn more about ForecastEx <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.ie\/predictionmarkets\/en\/home.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Disclaimer:<br>Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The IBKR prediction market on Tuesday depicted a 59% chance that the US Producer Price Index (PPI) would exceed 4.4% when released the following day. It was a low bar when analyzing the gauge\u2019s sensitivity to rising food and energy costs. Additionally, the monthly Reuter\u2019s poll of 21 forecasters stood at a median of 4.9%, or 50 basis points north of the 4.4% threshold. In my view, the $0.59 price for the \u201cYes\u201d at the 4.4% threshold was undervalued, even as the minimum projection in the survey was 4.2%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":213201,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3164,148,7],"tags":[3396,2162],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":["post-213198","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-forecast-contracts","tag-forecast-trader","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>US PPI and 4.4% IBKR Predictive Market Threshold: May 12, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/213198\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US PPI and 4.4% IBKR Predictive Market Threshold: May 12, 2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The IBKR prediction market on Tuesday depicted a 59% chance that the US Producer Price Index (PPI) would exceed 4.4% when released the following day. It was a low bar when analyzing the gauge\u2019s sensitivity to rising food and energy costs. Additionally, the monthly Reuter\u2019s poll of 21 forecasters stood at a median of 4.9%, or 50 basis points north of the 4.4% threshold. In my view, the $0.59 price for the \u201cYes\u201d at the 4.4% threshold was undervalued, even as the minimum projection in the survey was 4.2%.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/us-ppi-and-4-4-ibkr-predictive-market-threshold-may-12-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus EU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-05-13T09:22:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-06-12T08:46:28+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/ppi-dollar-featured-img.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jose Torres\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jose Torres\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"Article\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/us-ppi-and-4-4-ibkr-predictive-market-threshold-may-12-2026\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/us-ppi-and-4-4-ibkr-predictive-market-threshold-may-12-2026\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Jose Torres\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/92c2be3b6162d92fb996417221509b6e\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"headline\": \"US PPI and 4.4% IBKR Predictive Market Threshold: May 12, 2026\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2026-05-13T09:22:32+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2026-06-12T08:46:28+00:00\",\n\t            \"mainEntityOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/us-ppi-and-4-4-ibkr-predictive-market-threshold-may-12-2026\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"wordCount\": 395,\n\t            \"commentCount\": 0,\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/us-ppi-and-4-4-ibkr-predictive-market-threshold-may-12-2026\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/3\\\/2026\\\/05\\\/ppi-dollar-featured-img.jpg\",\n\t            \"keywords\": [\n\t                \"forecast contracts\",\n\t                \"Forecast Trader\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"articleSection\": [\n\t                \"IBKR Prediction Markets\",\n\t                \"Text Articles\",\n\t                \"Traders' Insight\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"CommentAction\",\n\t                    \"name\": \"Comment\",\n\t                    \"target\": [\n\t                        \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/us-ppi-and-4-4-ibkr-predictive-market-threshold-may-12-2026\\\/#respond\"\n\t                    ]\n\t                }\n\t            ]\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/us-ppi-and-4-4-ibkr-predictive-market-threshold-may-12-2026\\\/\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/us-ppi-and-4-4-ibkr-predictive-market-threshold-may-12-2026\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"US PPI and 4.4% IBKR Predictive Market Threshold: May 12, 2026 - 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In this capacity, he is responsible for economic analysis, economic commentary and educational content focused on the economy. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Jos\u00e9 spent 6 years working as an economist in the United States government within the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). During his time with the U.S. government, Jos\u00e9 frequently led presentations covering economic conditions and forecasts for elected officials, political appointees and senior management. He also built economic models, consulted with private sector executives, contributed to the modernization of economic processes and gained recognition for predicting the inflationary episode of the 2020s. Jos\u00e9 has also been a professor of economics at the City University of New York and holds a master\u2019s degree in financial economics from West Texas A&amp;M University. His skillset includes the ability to communicate and analyze complex economic topics in English and in Spanish and throughout his career, he has been interviewed by media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, CNN, WSJ, AP, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, Business Insider, Seeking Alpha, PBS, FOX, Economic Times, Univision, Telemundo and others.\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\\\/campus\\\/author\\\/jose-torres\\\/\"\n\t        }\n\t    ]\n\t}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"US PPI and 4.4% IBKR Predictive Market Threshold: May 12, 2026","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/213198\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"US PPI and 4.4% IBKR Predictive Market Threshold: May 12, 2026","og_description":"The IBKR prediction market on Tuesday depicted a 59% chance that the US Producer Price Index (PPI) would exceed 4.4% when released the following day. It was a low bar when analyzing the gauge\u2019s sensitivity to rising food and energy costs. Additionally, the monthly Reuter\u2019s poll of 21 forecasters stood at a median of 4.9%, or 50 basis points north of the 4.4% threshold. 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In this capacity, he is responsible for economic analysis, economic commentary and educational content focused on the economy. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Jos\u00e9 spent 6 years working as an economist in the United States government within the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). During his time with the U.S. government, Jos\u00e9 frequently led presentations covering economic conditions and forecasts for elected officials, political appointees and senior management. He also built economic models, consulted with private sector executives, contributed to the modernization of economic processes and gained recognition for predicting the inflationary episode of the 2020s. Jos\u00e9 has also been a professor of economics at the City University of New York and holds a master\u2019s degree in financial economics from West Texas A&amp;M University. 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