{"id":213158,"date":"2026-05-11T10:16:14","date_gmt":"2026-05-11T10:16:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=213158"},"modified":"2026-05-11T10:37:37","modified_gmt":"2026-05-11T10:37:37","slug":"umich-nos-predictive-contract-for-the-revised-final-in-2-weeks-may-8-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/umich-nos-predictive-contract-for-the-revised-final-in-2-weeks-may-8-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"UMich \u201cNos\u201d Predictive Contract For the Revised Final In 2 Weeks: May 8, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the US, the University of Michigan\u2019s preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index hit 48.5 on Friday, May 8, and the final revision will be published two weeks from that day. In consideration of the absolute median and average differences between the first and second versions historically being at 0.7 and 1, purchasing \u201cNos\u201d IBKR predictive market contracts with thresholds above the 48.5 offers attractive risk-reward opportunities, in my opinion. Top of mind is the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.ie\/predictionmarkets\/app\/#\/market-details?id=626425612%7C20260522%7C50%7CMay%202026%7Cexchange%3DFORECASTX\">\u201cNo\u201d<\/a> at 50, which would require a rare upgrade of 1.6 to lose money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"123\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-17-1100x123.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - Will the US Consumer Sentiment Index exceed 50 in May 2026?\" class=\"wp-image-213159 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-17-1100x123.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-17-700x78.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-17-300x34.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-17-768x86.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-17-1536x172.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-17.png 1575w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/123;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"590\" height=\"734\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-18.png\" alt=\"Forecast contracts - US Consumer Sentiment \" class=\"wp-image-213160 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-18.png 590w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-18-300x373.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 590px) 100vw, 590px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 590px; aspect-ratio: 590\/734;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1050\" height=\"763\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-19.png\" alt=\"Consumer Sentiment, Difference between Initial and Final, Line Chart 2015 - 2026. Source - University of Michigan, Interactive brokers. Note, Monthly Data are non-seasonally adjusted as of April 2026\" class=\"wp-image-213161 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-19.png 1050w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-19-700x509.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-19-300x218.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-19-768x558.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1050px) 100vw, 1050px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1050px; aspect-ratio: 1050\/763;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of <a>May 8, 2026.<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;<em>Time until market closing is also <\/em><em>as of the morning of May 8, 2026.<\/em><em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Learn more about ForecastEx <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.ie\/predictionmarkets\/app\/#\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the US, the University of Michigan\u2019s preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index hit 48.5 on Friday, May 8, and the final revision will be published two weeks from that day. In consideration of the absolute median and average differences between the first and second versions historically being at 0.7 and 1, purchasing \u201cNos\u201d IBKR predictive market contracts with thresholds above the 48.5 offers attractive risk-reward opportunities, in my opinion.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":213162,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3164,148,7],"tags":[3396,2162,2156],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":["post-213158","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-forecast-contracts","tag-forecast-trader","tag-forecastex","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>UMich \u201cNos\u201d Predictive Contract For the Revised Final In 2 Weeks: May 8, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/213158\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"UMich \u201cNos\u201d Predictive Contract For the Revised Final In 2 Weeks: May 8, 2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In the US, the University of Michigan\u2019s preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index hit 48.5 on Friday, May 8, and the final revision will be published two weeks from that day. 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