{"id":213062,"date":"2026-05-05T08:40:31","date_gmt":"2026-05-05T08:40:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=213062"},"modified":"2026-05-06T13:44:51","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T13:44:51","slug":"us-new-home-sales-were-expected-to-recover-may-4-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/us-new-home-sales-were-expected-to-recover-may-4-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"US New Home Sales Were Expected to Recover: May 4, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Participants in the Interactive Brokers prediction market on Monday believed that new home sales improved as the first quarter progressed. January\u2019s 587k seasonally adjusted annualized units were the lowest in over three years, or since October 2022, but expectations on Monday signaled a recovery from those depths. The subsequent day\u2019s print was scheduled to feature both the February and March periods, as the data series was adversely impacted by the longest government shutdown in history a few months ago. For February, the Interactive Brokers platform had placed a 61% likelihood of a figure exceeding 575k as well as 85% odds of a result greater than 550k and a 51% probability of a statistic lower than 600k as of Monday. And for March, a 34% chance existed of a number north of 640k, alongside a 76% prospect of a print higher than 590k and a 96% possibility that the publication would not exceed 690k. Similarly, the 38 forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll carried a March median estimate as of Monday of 650k as well as minimum and maximum projections of 548k and 700k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"137\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-1100x137.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - Will Sales of new single-family homes exceed 575,000 in February 2026?\" class=\"wp-image-213063 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-1100x137.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-700x87.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-300x37.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-768x95.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-1536x191.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image.png 1755w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/137;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"130\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-1-1100x130.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - Will Sales of new single-family homes exceed 640,000 in March 2026?\" class=\"wp-image-213064 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-1-1100x130.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-1-700x83.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-1-300x35.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-1-768x91.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-1-1536x181.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-1.png 1761w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/130;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"1177\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-2.png\" alt=\"Forecast contracts - New  home sales.\" class=\"wp-image-213065 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-2.png 975w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-2-700x845.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-2-300x362.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-2-768x927.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 975px) 100vw, 975px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 975px; aspect-ratio: 975\/1177;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1027\" height=\"1173\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-3.png\" alt=\"Forecast contracts - New  home sales.\" class=\"wp-image-213066 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-3.png 1027w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-3-700x800.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-3-300x343.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/image-3-768x877.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1027px) 100vw, 1027px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1027px; aspect-ratio: 1027\/1173;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of <a>May 4, 2026.<\/a><\/em>&nbsp;<em>Time until market closing was also<\/em> <em>as of the morning of May 4, 2026.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Learn more about ForecastEx <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/en\/home.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>here<\/strong><\/a><em><strong><u>.<\/u><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Disclaimer:<br>Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Participants in the Interactive Brokers prediction market on Monday believed that new home sales improved as the first quarter progressed. January\u2019s 587k seasonally adjusted annualized units were the lowest in over three years, or since October 2022, but expectations on Monday signaled a recovery from those depths.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":213067,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3164,147,8,148,7],"tags":[3396,2162],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":["post-213062","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-north-america","category-region","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-forecast-contracts","tag-forecast-trader","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>US New Home Sales Were Expected to Recover: May 4, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/213062\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"US New Home Sales Were Expected to Recover: May 4, 2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Participants in the Interactive Brokers prediction market on Monday believed that new home sales improved as the first quarter progressed. January\u2019s 587k seasonally adjusted annualized units were the lowest in over three years, or since October 2022, but expectations on Monday signaled a recovery from those depths.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/us-new-home-sales-were-expected-to-recover-may-4-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus EU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-05-05T08:40:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-05-06T13:44:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/05\/home-sale-sign-featured-img-ForecastTrader.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jose Torres\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jose Torres\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"Article\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/us-new-home-sales-were-expected-to-recover-may-4-2026\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/us-new-home-sales-were-expected-to-recover-may-4-2026\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Jose Torres\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/92c2be3b6162d92fb996417221509b6e\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"headline\": \"US New Home Sales Were Expected to Recover: May 4, 2026\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2026-05-05T08:40:31+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2026-05-06T13:44:51+00:00\",\n\t            \"mainEntityOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/us-new-home-sales-were-expected-to-recover-may-4-2026\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"wordCount\": 316,\n\t            \"commentCount\": 0,\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/us-new-home-sales-were-expected-to-recover-may-4-2026\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/3\\\/2026\\\/05\\\/home-sale-sign-featured-img-ForecastTrader.jpg\",\n\t            \"keywords\": [\n\t                \"forecast contracts\",\n\t                \"Forecast Trader\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"articleSection\": [\n\t                \"IBKR Prediction Markets\",\n\t                \"North America\",\n\t                \"Region\",\n\t                \"Text Articles\",\n\t                \"Traders' Insight\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"CommentAction\",\n\t                    \"name\": \"Comment\",\n\t                    \"target\": [\n\t                        \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/us-new-home-sales-were-expected-to-recover-may-4-2026\\\/#respond\"\n\t                    ]\n\t                }\n\t            ]\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/us-new-home-sales-were-expected-to-recover-may-4-2026\\\/\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/us-new-home-sales-were-expected-to-recover-may-4-2026\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"US New Home Sales Were Expected to Recover: May 4, 2026 - 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