{"id":212977,"date":"2026-04-30T09:21:53","date_gmt":"2026-04-30T09:21:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=212977"},"modified":"2026-05-01T08:26:27","modified_gmt":"2026-05-01T08:26:27","slug":"yeses-and-nos-on-eu-cpi-gdp-april-29-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/yeses-and-nos-on-eu-cpi-gdp-april-29-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00a0\u201cYeses\u201d and \u201cNos\u201d on EU CPI, GDP: April 29, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thursday\u2019s eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) was expected to reflect a rise from 2.6% to 2.9%, in light of significant energy cost pressures that have lifted the critical gauge. On Wednesday immediately prior to the release, a beat to the upside looked more likely than a downside miss, in my opinion, and the consensus agreed as the maximum projected value was at 3.5% across the 41 forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters survey. However, in the Interactive Brokers prediction market, the \u201cYeses\u201d at 2.7% and 2.8% on Wednesday were significantly undervalued at $0.69 and $0.29, in my view. An in-line result at 2.9%, or a figure arriving ahead of expectations, would deliver $1.00 back to investors throughout both contracts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"244\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-73-1100x244.png\" alt=\"IBKR predictive contract regarding Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices\" class=\"wp-image-212978 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-73-1100x244.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-73-700x155.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-73-300x66.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-73-768x170.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-73.png 1395w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/244;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"788\" height=\"1033\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-74.png\" alt=\"Prices of IBKR predictive contracts regarding Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices\" class=\"wp-image-212979 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-74.png 788w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-74-700x918.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-74-300x393.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-74-768x1007.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 788px) 100vw, 788px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 788px; aspect-ratio: 788\/1033;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>EU GDP Still Expanding Nonetheless<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Also as of Wednesday, the eurozone\u2019s economic growth was expected to expand at a similar rate of 0.2% or 0.3% in the first quarter as the fourth and the Interactive Brokers prediction market priced a result ahead of 0.1% at 81% while a number that failed to exceed 0.4% carried a likelihood of 79%. The 42 forecasters in the monthly Reuters survey were at a median of 0.2% on Wednesday amidst minimum and maximum projections of 0.1% and 0.3%. The \u201cNo,\u201d priced at 0.4% on Wednesday, appeared undervalued, in my opinion, since a statistic of 0.5% was highly unlikely considering the continent\u2019s slow activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"945\" height=\"168\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-75.png\" alt=\"IBKR predictive contract regarding Eurozone GDP\" class=\"wp-image-212980 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-75.png 945w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-75-700x124.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-75-300x53.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-75-768x137.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 945px) 100vw, 945px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 945px; aspect-ratio: 945\/168;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"573\" height=\"550\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-76.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR predictive contracts regarding Eurozone GDP\" class=\"wp-image-212981 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-76.png 573w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-76-300x288.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 573px) 100vw, 573px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 573px; aspect-ratio: 573\/550;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>US PCE Inflation Expected Above 3.4%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thursday\u2019s US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) was expected to rise from 2.8% to above 3.4% with a 57% likelihood, according to the Interactive Brokers prediction market as of the Wednesday. A 3.4% result would be the highest figure since 3.4% in September 2023; however, the consensus estimate was at 3.5%, and that would be the loftiest statistic going back to May of 2023, almost 3 years ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"247\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-77-1100x247.png\" alt=\"IBKR predictive market contract asking is US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index will exceed 3.4% in March 2026\" class=\"wp-image-212982 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-77-1100x247.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-77-700x157.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-77-300x67.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-77-768x172.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-77.png 1403w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/247;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>US Economy and Labor Market Expected Strong However<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The weekly economic index and initial unemployment claims were expected to reflect robust conditions across the US landscape, however, with the Interactive Brokers prediction market on Wednesday projecting a number around 2.53% for the former indicator and roughly 212k for the latter, results that would remain near recent publications.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"193\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-78-1100x193.png\" alt=\"IBKR predictive market contract asking will the Weekly Economic Inex exceed 2.6 for the week of April 25, 2026?\" class=\"wp-image-212983 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-78-1100x193.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-78-700x123.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-78-300x53.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-78-768x135.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-78.png 1395w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/193;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Thursday\u2019s eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) was expected to reflect a rise from 2.6% to 2.9%, in light of significant energy cost pressures that have lifted the critical gauge.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":212984,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[152,3164,148,7],"tags":[3396,2162],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":{"0":"post-212977","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-europe-middle-east-africa","8":"category-forecast-trader","9":"category-text-articles","10":"category-traders-insight","11":"tag-forecast-contracts","12":"tag-forecast-trader","13":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.5) - 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