{"id":212787,"date":"2026-04-24T06:19:10","date_gmt":"2026-04-24T06:19:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=212787"},"modified":"2026-04-24T10:43:01","modified_gmt":"2026-04-24T10:43:01","slug":"hong-kong-singapore-japan-cpis-and-the-ibkr-predictive-market-april-22-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/hong-kong-singapore-japan-cpis-and-the-ibkr-predictive-market-april-22-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan CPIs and the IBKR Predictive Market: April 22, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Hong Kong\u2019s Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been somewhat volatile in recent months with its year-over-year (y\/y) February result climbing from 1.1% in January to 1.7%, a result, in large part, of differences in the Chinese New Year dates during this year and in 2025. This February CPI ascent was driven, in large part, by the inflationary impact of the holiday occurring that month and a low base comparison because the festival resulting price pressures happened in January of last year.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Even without the inflationary influences of the Chinese New Year, the March CPI as of Wednesday was unlikely to ease significantly from the 1.7% print. On Wednesday, the IBKR prediction market contract with a \u201cYes\u201d answer that asked if the CPI would exceed a threshold 1.2% was priced at $0.80, which would pay $1 if correct. A deceleration to that degree, in my opinion, is unlikely. Consider the following:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Of eight analysts surveyed by Reuters, the median forecast as of Wednesday was 1.8% and the minimum anticipated result was only 1.4%, significantly above the 1.2% contract threshold.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The February CPI was immune from soaring oil and gas costs that started last month as a result of the US-Iran war.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The prediction market also had contracts with \u201cYes\u201d answers for thresholds of 1.7% and 2.2% that were priced at $0.28 and $0.03.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"109\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/A-1-1100x109.png\" alt=\"IBKR predictive market contract regarding Hong Kong CPI\" class=\"wp-image-212798 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/A-1-1100x109.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/A-1-700x69.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/A-1-300x30.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/A-1-768x76.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/A-1.png 1322w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/109;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"645\" height=\"778\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-43.png\" alt=\"Pricing of IBKR predictive market contracts regarding Hong Kong CPI\" class=\"wp-image-212790 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-43.png 645w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-43-300x362.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 645px) 100vw, 645px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 645px; aspect-ratio: 645\/778;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Singapore \u201cYeses\u201d Also Attractive<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Also, as of Wednesday, the Singapore CPI was expected to arrive near 1.8% after coming in at 1.3% in February, according to the median estimate of 19 forecasters surveyed by Reuters. The IBKR prediction market contract asking if the CPI will come in north of 1.5% had a \u201cYes\u201d answer priced at only $0.27. With higher energy prices, the lowest and highest estimate among the 19 analysts polled by Reuters was 1.3% and 2.1%. A reading above 1.5%, in my view, was highly likely due to higher energy costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"106\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-44-1100x106.png\" alt=\"IBKR predictive market contracts regarding Singapore CPI\" class=\"wp-image-212791 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-44-1100x106.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-44-700x68.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-44-300x29.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-44-768x74.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-44.png 1315w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/106;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"641\" height=\"640\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-45.png\" alt=\"IBKR predictive market contracts regarding Singapore CPI\" class=\"wp-image-212792 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-45.png 641w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-45-300x300.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 641px) 100vw, 641px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 641px; aspect-ratio: 641\/640;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Japan CPI Likely Accelerated as Well<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Japan\u2019s March CPI, likewise, was poised to increase due to higher energy costs. In February, the gauge fell from 112.9 in January to 112.1. Even if higher energy costs were offset by declines in the prices of other categories, it looked highly probable on Wednesday that the gauge would exceed the 112 threshold found in the Interactive Brokers prediction market contract that with a \u201cYes\u201d answer that was priced at only $0.75. The prediction market also had contracts with \u201cYes\u201d answers that had thresholds of 112.8 and 113.6 and were both priced at $0.03.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"100\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-46-1100x100.png\" alt=\"IBKR predictive market contracts regarding Japan CPI\" class=\"wp-image-212793 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-46-1100x100.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-46-700x63.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-46-300x27.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-46-768x70.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-46-1536x139.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-46.png 1656w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/100;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"635\" height=\"688\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-47.png\" alt=\"IBKR predictive market contracts regarding Japan CPI\" class=\"wp-image-212794 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-47.png 635w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-47-300x325.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 635px) 100vw, 635px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 635px; aspect-ratio: 635\/688;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 22, 2026. Time until contraction expiration was also as of the morning of April 22, 2026.<\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, click <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/en\/home.php\">here<\/a><em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Disclaimer:<br>Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hong Kong\u2019s Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been somewhat volatile in recent months with its year-over-year (y\/y) February result climbing from 1.1% in January to 1.7%, a result, in large part, of differences in the Chinese New Year dates during this year and in 2025. This February CPI ascent was driven, in large part, by the inflationary impact of the holiday occurring that month and a low base comparison because the festival resulting price pressures happened in January of last year.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":212785,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3164,148,7],"tags":[3396,2162],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":["post-212787","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-forecast-contracts","tag-forecast-trader","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan CPIs and the IBKR Predictive Market: April 22, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/212787\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan CPIs and the IBKR Predictive Market: April 22, 2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Hong Kong\u2019s Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been somewhat volatile in recent months with its year-over-year (y\/y) February result climbing from 1.1% in January to 1.7%, a result, in large part, of differences in the Chinese New Year dates during this year and in 2025. This February CPI ascent was driven, in large part, by the inflationary impact of the holiday occurring that month and a low base comparison because the festival resulting price pressures happened in January of last year.\u00a0\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/hong-kong-singapore-japan-cpis-and-the-ibkr-predictive-market-april-22-2026\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus EU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-04-24T06:19:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-04-24T10:43:01+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/cpi-featured-img-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jose Torres\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jose Torres\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"Article\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/hong-kong-singapore-japan-cpis-and-the-ibkr-predictive-market-april-22-2026\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/hong-kong-singapore-japan-cpis-and-the-ibkr-predictive-market-april-22-2026\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Jose Torres\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/92c2be3b6162d92fb996417221509b6e\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"headline\": \"Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan CPIs and the IBKR Predictive Market: April 22, 2026\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2026-04-24T06:19:10+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2026-04-24T10:43:01+00:00\",\n\t            \"mainEntityOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/hong-kong-singapore-japan-cpis-and-the-ibkr-predictive-market-april-22-2026\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"wordCount\": 532,\n\t            \"commentCount\": 0,\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/hong-kong-singapore-japan-cpis-and-the-ibkr-predictive-market-april-22-2026\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/3\\\/2026\\\/04\\\/cpi-featured-img-1.jpg\",\n\t            \"keywords\": [\n\t                \"forecast contracts\",\n\t                \"Forecast Trader\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"articleSection\": [\n\t                \"IBKR Prediction Markets\",\n\t                \"Text Articles\",\n\t                \"Traders' Insight\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"CommentAction\",\n\t                    \"name\": \"Comment\",\n\t                    \"target\": [\n\t                        \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/hong-kong-singapore-japan-cpis-and-the-ibkr-predictive-market-april-22-2026\\\/#respond\"\n\t                    ]\n\t                }\n\t            ]\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/hong-kong-singapore-japan-cpis-and-the-ibkr-predictive-market-april-22-2026\\\/\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/hong-kong-singapore-japan-cpis-and-the-ibkr-predictive-market-april-22-2026\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan CPIs and the IBKR Predictive Market: April 22, 2026 - 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