{"id":212690,"date":"2026-04-15T12:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-04-15T16:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/another-day-another-rally-reason-not-required\/"},"modified":"2026-04-20T09:01:24","modified_gmt":"2026-04-20T09:01:24","slug":"another-day-another-rally-reason-not-required","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/ibkr-market-insights\/another-day-another-rally-reason-not-required\/","title":{"rendered":"Another Day, Another Rally.\u00a0 Reason Not Required?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

This morning, I was asked why stocks resumed their rally after pre-market futures had traded in a generally sideways manner.\u00a0 My answer, perhaps a bit flippant, was \u201cat this point, do we really need a reason?\u201d\u00a0 This is the beauty of a momentum-driven rally.\u00a0 As we\u2019ve noted before, when momentum rules, fundamentals are optional.\u00a0 Price action, not the underlying justification for those prices, is all that\u2019s important.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Once again, stocks are basically expressing their view that the war in the Persian Gulf is all but over.  Indeed, the ceasefire appears to be holding, but at the risk of minimizing the human costs, the market reaction to the war was never really about the shooting; it was about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.  Stock, bond, and commodity markets reacted to the economic impact of the closure, not the hostilities themselves.  If ships aren\u2019t moving through the Strait, then neither is oil, gas, fertilizer, helium, or anything else, creating a supply shortage that results in higher prices. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we pointed out most recently yesterday, oil futures are about $30 higher and 10-year Treasury yields are about 35 basis points higher than they were when the missiles started flying.\u00a0 In theory, those should negatively impact stock valuations.\u00a0 But again, when momentum rules, it is implicit that valuation is taking a backseat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Perhaps the motivation for the advance is coming from the President\u2019s comments in an interview with Fox Business<\/a> that aired this morning, where he stated that the war is “very close to over\u201d because \u201cI think they [the Iranians] want to make a deal very badly,\u201d and that the “stock market is going to boom, it’s already booming.”  The market didn\u2019t initially react after the interview aired, which in some ways is unsurprising.  The stock market is already booming, and the reason is because equity investors have already been effectively pricing in an imminent end to the hostilities, if not the hope that they\u2019ve already ended.  As for the idea that Iran is eager to make a deal, we have heard this before:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: X<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Admittedly, the author of the above post is highly partisan, but the post itself is factual.  We have received repeated assurances that a deal is imminent, yet the two sides are at best stalemated with the blockade remaining in place<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Frankly, the market\u2019s response to reports of an imminent deal is quite similar to traders\u2019 motivations to buy dips and chase rallies.  If something is working, why shouldn\u2019t people keep doing it?  If stocks rally on a report that a deal is imminent, why wouldn\u2019t that continue?  At this point, it\u2019s not necessary to get a deal, only to receive continued reassurance that one is just around the corner.  In fact, could it be the case that we should prefer the notion that talks are continuing to an actual treaty, since the latter would complete the second part of \u201cbuy the rumor, sell the news?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Right now, it\u2019s not about whether there is actual progress in the peace talks, it\u2019s about whether we can reasonably hope that there might be progress in the peace talks.  Vibes are more powerful than reality.  And that\u2019s reason enough for the rally to proceed apace, at least for now.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This morning, I was asked why stocks resumed their rally after pre-market futures had traded in a generally sideways manner.\u00a0 My answer, perhaps a bit flippant, was \u201cat this point, do we really need a reason?\u201d\u00a0 This is the beauty of a momentum-driven rally.\u00a0 As we\u2019ve noted before, when momentum rules, fundamentals are optional.\u00a0 Price action, not the underlying justification for those prices, is all that\u2019s important.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":206131,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[145,146,147,8,12,148,7],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[149],"class_list":{"0":"post-212690","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAnother Day, Another Rally.\u00a0 Reason Not Required?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This morning, I was asked why stocks resumed their rally after pre-market futures had traded in a generally sideways manner. 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