{"id":212596,"date":"2026-04-10T09:53:40","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T09:53:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=212596"},"modified":"2026-04-15T08:29:47","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T08:29:47","slug":"cpi-expected-to-jump-above-3-for-first-time-since-may-2024-april-9-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/cpi-expected-to-jump-above-3-for-first-time-since-may-2024-april-9-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"CPI Expected to Jump Above 3% For First Time Since May 2024: April 9, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>On Thursday, the March US Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled for release on Friday was expected to jump above 3% for the first time since May 2024, as the surge in gasoline costs sparked by the Middle East conflict spreads across the economy. The median estimate for the headline statistic was 3.3%, but the range of potential outcomes was particularly wide, as the peak expectation of the 44 forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll was at an elevated 4%. Meanwhile, the Interactive Brokers prediction market anticipated a number north of 3% with a 96% degree of confidence, while odds for a figure that fails to exceed 3.5% was at 92%. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"731\" height=\"919\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-20.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - US Consumer Price Index yearly\" class=\"wp-image-212597 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-20.png 731w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-20-700x880.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-20-300x377.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 731px) 100vw, 731px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 731px; aspect-ratio: 731\/919;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Core CPI Expected Around 2.6%, 2.7%<\/strong><\/em><em><strong><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The core CPI, which excludes food and energy due to their volatile characteristics, was expected on Thursday to land around 2.6% or 2.7% as part of the Friday data release. The Interactive Brokers prediction market priced a number that would not exceed 2.7% at 82%. Looking over and under, odds of a statistic coming in higher than 2.4% was at 95% while a figure below 3.1%, or failing to come in above 3%, was going for 95%.&nbsp; <\/em><em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"764\" height=\"916\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-21.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - US Core CPI\" class=\"wp-image-212598 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-21.png 764w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-21-700x839.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-21-300x360.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 764px) 100vw, 764px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 764px; aspect-ratio: 764\/916;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>German Flash Estimate Came in at 124.47<\/strong><\/em><em><strong><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Turning to Germany, Friday\u2019s revision to the flash March CPI was expected on Thursday to arrive near the 124.47 originally reported, as the indicator has a subdued deviation rate, meaning that it typically arrives close to estimates and its preliminary reading. The Interactive Brokers prediction market priced a result above 124 at 86%, while one at or below 124.5 was at 88%. The \u201cYes\u201d at 123.5 and the \u201cNo\u201d at 125 were going for $0.91 and $0.95, against the backdrop. The effects of rounding could be critical here ladies and gentlemen.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"113\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-22-1100x113.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - Will Germany's CPI exceed 124 in March 2026?\" class=\"wp-image-212599 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-22-1100x113.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-22-700x72.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-22-300x31.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-22-768x79.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-22-1536x157.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-22.png 1974w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/113;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"716\" height=\"919\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-23.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - Consumer Price Index of Germany\" class=\"wp-image-212600 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-23.png 716w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-23-700x898.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-23-300x385.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 716px) 100vw, 716px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 716px; aspect-ratio: 716\/919;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>Canadian Unemployment Is Historically Volatile <\/strong><\/em><em><strong><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The Canadian unemployment rate is historically volatile and can deliver significant surprises. Friday\u2019s March figure was expected to rise from 6.7% to 6.8%, according to the Reuters monthly poll of 15 forecasters. However, the minimum and maximum values stand at 6.6% and 6.9%, indicating the possibility for a sizeable miss on projections. The 6.6% threshold in the Interactive Brokers prediction market, meanwhile, priced the \u201cYes\u201d at $0.59 and the \u201cNo\u201d at $0.39 as of Thursday. <\/em><em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"119\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-24-1100x119.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - Will Canada's Unemployment rate exceed 6.6% in March 2026?\" class=\"wp-image-212601 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-24-1100x119.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-24-700x76.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-24-300x32.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-24-768x83.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-24-1536x166.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/04\/image-24.png 1971w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/119;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of April 9, 2026. Time until market closing is also as of April 9, 2026.<\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/en\/home.php\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Disclaimer:<br>Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Turning to Germany, Friday\u2019s revision to the flash March CPI was expected on Thursday to arrive near the 124.47 originally reported, as the indicator has a subdued deviation rate, meaning that it typically arrives close to estimates and its preliminary reading.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":212602,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3164,148,7],"tags":[3396,2162],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":["post-212596","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-forecast-contracts","tag-forecast-trader","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>CPI Expected to Jump Above 3% For First Time Since May 2024: April 9, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" 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