{"id":212305,"date":"2026-03-26T09:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-26T13:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/war-on-stances-have-market-on-the-defensive\/"},"modified":"2026-03-31T11:13:18","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T11:13:18","slug":"war-on-stances-have-market-on-the-defensive","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/war-on-stances-have-market-on-the-defensive\/","title":{"rendered":"War-on stances have market on the defensive"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Briefing.com Summary:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">*The equity futures market is on the defensive as the U.S. and Iran have retained a war-on footing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">*Oil prices are higher and Treasury yields are higher, which is leading to weaker stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">*Jobless claims are looking good for the economy, but not for a rate cut.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Stock market action is often classified as being either &#8220;risk-on&#8221; or &#8220;risk-off.&#8221; These days, it is thought of more as being either &#8220;war-on&#8221; or &#8220;war-off.&#8221; This morning, it is back to being &#8220;war-on,&#8221; which is feeding into some &#8220;risk-off&#8221; behavior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Currently, the S&amp;P 500 futures are down 57 points and are trading 0.9% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 265 points and are trading 1.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 365 points and are trading 0.8% below fair value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This negative orientation is flowing from several sources.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>President Trump asserted that Iran&#8217;s negotiators &#8220;better get serious soon, before it is too late.&#8221;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>There is an\u00a0<em>Axios<\/em>\u00a0report that the Pentagon is looking at options that will strike a &#8220;final blow&#8221; to Iran, including the possible deployment of ground troops.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A gaggle of Middle East countries, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, invoked their right to self-defense.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The carryover from yesterday when Iran&#8217;s foreign minister declared there are no negotiations with the U.S.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Following form from this compendium of &#8220;war-on&#8221; stances, oil prices have headed higher again. WTI crude futures are up 4.5% to $94.40\/bbl, and Brent crude futures are up 4.9% to $102.06\/bbl. In turn, Treasury yields are up, adhering to an inflation trade as opposed to safe-haven flows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 2-yr note yield is up five basis points to 3.93%, and the 10-yr note yield is up five basis points to 4.38%. Those moves come ahead of the $44 billion 7-yr note auction results at 1:00 p.m. ET. Prior auctions this week for 2-yr notes and 5-yr notes have been quite weak, presumably because of concerns that rates may still be headed higher due to the energy price shock and rising inflation expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Separately, the latest jobless claims report didn&#8217;t give the Fed any incentive to cut rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 21 rose by 5,000 to 210,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 210,000), while continuing jobless claims decreased by 32,000 to 1.819 million, which is the lowest level since May 25, 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The key takeaway from the report is that it is not indicative of a weak labor market, particularly with initial jobless claims\u2014a leading indicator\u2014continuing to run at historically low levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There isn&#8217;t any market-moving corporate news this morning. The market&#8217;s fixation is on the macro scene and the concern that there is still a &#8220;war on&#8221; footing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted March 26, 2026 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.briefing.com\/page-one\">War-on stances have market on the defensive<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>*The equity futures market is on the defensive as the U.S. and Iran have retained a war-on footing.<\/p>\n<p>*Oil prices are higher and Treasury yields are higher, which is leading to weaker stock prices.<\/p>\n<p>*Jobless claims are looking good for the economy, but not for a rate cut.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60,"featured_media":210505,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[146,147,8,12,148,7],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[412],"class_list":["post-212305","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-briefing-com"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>War-on stances have market on the defensive<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"*The equity futures market is on the defensive as the U.S. and Iran have retained a war-on footing.*Oil prices are higher and Treasury yields are...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/212305\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"War-on stances have market on the defensive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"*The equity futures market is on the defensive as the U.S. and Iran have retained a war-on footing.*Oil prices are higher and Treasury yields are higher, which is leading to weaker stock prices.*Jobless claims are looking good for the economy, but not for a rate cut.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/war-on-stances-have-market-on-the-defensive\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus EU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-03-26T13:30:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-03-31T11:13:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/war-featured-img.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Patrick J. 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