{"id":212255,"date":"2026-03-24T14:02:25","date_gmt":"2026-03-24T14:02:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=212255"},"modified":"2026-03-26T09:45:28","modified_gmt":"2026-03-26T09:45:28","slug":"forecasters-price-us-recession-risk-at-38-by-year-end-march-23-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecasters-price-us-recession-risk-at-38-by-year-end-march-23-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecasters Price US Recession Risk at 38% By Year-End: March 23, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Forecasters on Monday priced the risk of a US recession by year-end at 38% as the Iran war has sparked nervousness regarding elevated energy costs that all else being equal, reduced capacity for households and corporates alike to spend and invest in other areas of the economy. There are also worries that the Federal Reserve will need to reverse from its easing cycle and begin to hike rates in order to keep inflationary pressures in check, and that has lifted slowdown angst as well. Additionally, firms may not be able to pass on higher fuel charges to stretched consumers, and that could have adverse impacts to margins and hiring, serving to cloud the outlook for overall transactions and capital expenditures. The \u201cYes\u201d would pay out $1.00 if there are two consecutive quarters of annualized declines in the final reads of US gross domestic product, which constitute a technical recession. The contract does not require an NBER declared recession for settlement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Forecast<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of March 23, 2026. Time until market closing is also as of the morning of March 23, 2026.<\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Disclaimer:
Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Forecasters on Monday priced the risk of a US recession by year-end at 38% as the Iran war has sparked nervousness regarding elevated energy costs that all else being equal, reduced capacity for households and corporates alike to spend and invest in other areas of the 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