{"id":212194,"date":"2026-03-20T13:08:01","date_gmt":"2026-03-20T17:08:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/whats-the-strike-price-of-a-trump-put\/"},"modified":"2026-03-23T10:00:29","modified_gmt":"2026-03-23T10:00:29","slug":"whats-the-strike-price-of-a-trump-put","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/whats-the-strike-price-of-a-trump-put\/","title":{"rendered":"What\u2019s the Strike Price of a \u201cTrump Put\u201d?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Regular readers should be quite familiar with our ongoing assertion that the stock market reaction to the events in the Persian Gulf is rather subdued, all things considered.&nbsp; In the span of just three weeks, we have seen oil prices spike, other commodities plunge, and interest rates surge as rate cut assumptions have been turned upside down.&nbsp; Nonetheless, in the month of March, US stock indices are down by less than 5%.&nbsp; Their relatively sanguine response might be motivated by a belief either in the \u201cTACO Trade\u201d or a related \u201cTrump Put.\u201d&nbsp; If so, what\u2019s that put\u2019s strike?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Note that US stocks have performed relatively well since the Iran conflict began on Saturday, February 28<sup>th<\/sup>, even as we have seen seismic changes in a wide range of factors that traditionally should have greater influences on stock prices than we have seen so far.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-94.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-212184 lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Past performance is not indicative of future returns.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The idea of a \u201cTrump Put\u201d is akin to that of the longtime \u201cFed Put\u201d, where investors assume that the central bank will adopt policies that attempt to stem or reverse adverse market conditions.\u00a0 As we noted in a prior article, I believe that I was present for the birth of the Fed Put.\u00a0 I was a newly minted junior trader at Salomon Brothers during the Crash of 1987, and while Black Monday was bad, things were even worse the next morning.\u00a0 Trading had all but ground to a halt and the system appeared to be on the verge of a meltdown.\u00a0 After a series of tense meetings in an adjacent conference room, we were told to try to clear up any imbalances in stocks we traded.\u00a0 Other firms were given the same orders, and stocks turned around.\u00a0 I learned later that Alan Greenspan\u2019s Fed had arranged to backstop those firms\u2019 purchases.\u00a0 (Much more in this linked piece.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Because the Fed Put was born in a stock market crisis, stock traders have tended to assume that it is a stock market phenomenon.\u00a0 We have asserted numerous times that it\u2019s an incorrect assumption.\u00a0 The Fed has an explicit duty to maintain the health and stability of the overall financial system, since failing to do so would threaten their dual mandate of stable prices and maximum sustainable employment.\u00a0 If a crisis in the stock market risks metastasizing into a generally systemic problem, as was the case in 1987, then the Fed would and should feel compelled to act.\u00a0 Contrast the difference in the Fed\u2019s response to stock selloffs in 2020 and 2022.\u00a0 The former drop was part of a global economic crisis caused by Covid; the latter fall had few dire consequences outside equity markets and was arguably abetted by Fed that continued to hike rates in order to fight inflation even as stocks fell sharply.\u00a0 It is quite fair to argue that the strike price of the Fed Put cannot be measured in terms of SPX or other stock measures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Investors, however, have a range of positive experiences from which to base their relative complacency.\u00a0 For starters, dip buying has tended to be a profitable activity, particularly in the post-Covid era.\u00a0 Except for the aforementioned 2022 period, stocks have tended to snap back quickly, reinforcing the notion that \u201cbuying the dip\u201d rewards those who do it.\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy-crisis-pulls-stocks-5-below-january-high-path-quick-recovery-remains-2026-03-20\/\">A Reuters article published today<\/a> noted that SPX was higher a month after 42 of the last 59 drawdowns of 5%.\u00a0 Heck, with SPX just 5% from its all-time high, it is quite clear that dip buying has been quite successful over the years \u2013 as long as the buyers have sufficiently deep pockets and long time horizons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Most notably, investors remember what happened 11 months ago in the aftermath of the \u201cLiberation Day\u201d tariff announcement.\u00a0 Stocks plunged but soon recovered all their losses \u2013 and then quite a bit more \u2013 after the President reversed course on the most egregious parts of that decision.\u00a0 Investors understandably freaked out when a market-friendly President and administration members initially seemed unconcerned about markets\u2019 highly negative reaction.\u00a0 It was only after the President referred to \u201cyippy\u201d bond markets that both stocks and bonds found their footing.\u00a0 While that led many to utilize the acronym \u201cTACO\u201d, for \u201cTrump Always Chickens Out\u201d, I think it is more useful for traders to think of that as the \u201cTrump Put.\u201d\u00a0 He recognized that markets were giving him a huge vote of \u201cno confidence\u201d, so he changed policy in response.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since then, traders seem to have expected a return of the \u201cTrump Put.\u201d&nbsp; But keep in mind that the mythical put was exercised only when SPX had fallen about 20% from its high.&nbsp; If that is the current strike price, we are likely in for a long, rocky ride.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Remember, we are now down only about one quarter of that 20% drop.&nbsp; Furthermore, bearing in mind that \u201cthis time it\u2019s different\u201d is perhaps the most dangerous phrase in investing, this time does seem different.&nbsp; While both events, \u201cLiberation Day\u201d, and the current Iran situation, were triggered by the President\u2019s actions, the former was much more easily reversed.&nbsp; It was an administrative order that had not yet been fully implemented.&nbsp; The current situation is not so easily reversed.&nbsp; For starters, even amidst a wave of military successes, the loser in a military conflict has some say in when it ends.&nbsp; Surrender occurs when the loser gives up, and it is not clear that Iran is yet ready to do that.&nbsp; Also, some of the damage to energy facilities will <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bing.com\/ck\/a?!&amp;&amp;p=82ab8ad662e0653d4399ab233b297a179ebcae67f9d2a7af245dc23da29d775dJmltdHM9MTc3Mzk2NDgwMA&amp;ptn=3&amp;ver=2&amp;hsh=4&amp;fclid=1e9ffdd7-b3c6-62a0-1d01-eb51b2506341&amp;u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuY25iYy5jb20vMjAyNi8wMy8xOS9pcmFuLWF0dGFjay1xYXRhci1sbmctY2FwYWNpdHkuaHRtbD9tc29ja2lkPTFlOWZmZGQ3YjNjNjYyYTAxZDAxZWI1MWIyNTA2MzQx&amp;ntb=1\">affect prices for some time<\/a>, even if the Strait of Hormuz was opened tomorrow.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It behooves all of us to root for a quick but lasting resolution to the current conflict.&nbsp; Stock investors clearly are, as major indices clearly reflect.&nbsp; But if you\u2019re banking on a Trump Put to support your thinking, please be careful about whether the strike is anywhere close to where you think it might be.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Regular readers should be quite familiar with our ongoing assertion that the stock market reaction to the events in the Persian Gulf is rather subdued, all things considered.  In the span of just three weeks, we have seen oil prices spike, other commodities plunge, and interest rates surge as rate cut assumptions have been turned upside down.  Nonetheless, in the month of March, US stock indices are down by less than 5%.  Their relatively sanguine response might be motivated by a belief either in the \u201cTACO Trade\u201d or a related \u201cTrump Put.\u201d  If so, what\u2019s that put\u2019s strike?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":212195,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[145,146,147,8,12,148,7],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[149],"class_list":{"0":"post-212194","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What\u2019s the Strike Price of a \u201cTrump Put\u201d?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/212194\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What\u2019s the Strike Price of a \u201cTrump Put\u201d?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Regular readers should be quite familiar with our ongoing assertion that the stock market reaction to the events in the Persian Gulf is rather subdued, all things considered. In the span of just three weeks, we have seen oil prices spike, other commodities plunge, and interest rates surge as rate cut assumptions have been turned upside down. Nonetheless, in the month of March, US stock indices are down by less than 5%. Their relatively sanguine response might be motivated by a belief either in the \u201cTACO Trade\u201d or a related \u201cTrump Put.\u201d If so, what\u2019s that put\u2019s strike?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/whats-the-strike-price-of-a-trump-put\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus EU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-03-20T17:08:01+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-03-23T10:00:29+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/economy-down-featured-img.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Steve Sosnick\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Steve Sosnick\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"Article\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/whats-the-strike-price-of-a-trump-put\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/whats-the-strike-price-of-a-trump-put\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Steve Sosnick\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/31988d9596575a63ddc53e92049a2549\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"headline\": \"What\u2019s the Strike Price of a \u201cTrump Put\u201d?\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2026-03-20T17:08:01+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2026-03-23T10:00:29+00:00\",\n\t            \"mainEntityOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/whats-the-strike-price-of-a-trump-put\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"wordCount\": 1003,\n\t            \"commentCount\": 0,\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/whats-the-strike-price-of-a-trump-put\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/3\\\/2026\\\/03\\\/economy-down-featured-img.jpg\",\n\t            \"articleSection\": [\n\t                \"IBKR Insights\",\n\t                \"Macro\",\n\t                \"North America\",\n\t                \"Region\",\n\t                \"Securities\",\n\t                \"Text Articles\",\n\t                \"Traders' Insight\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"CommentAction\",\n\t                    \"name\": \"Comment\",\n\t                    \"target\": [\n\t                        \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/whats-the-strike-price-of-a-trump-put\\\/#respond\"\n\t                    ]\n\t                }\n\t            ]\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/whats-the-strike-price-of-a-trump-put\\\/\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/whats-the-strike-price-of-a-trump-put\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"What\u2019s the Strike Price of a \u201cTrump Put\u201d? 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He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.\",\n\t            \"sameAs\": [\n\t                \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkr.com\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\\\/campus\\\/author\\\/steve-sosnick\\\/\"\n\t        }\n\t    ]\n\t}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"What\u2019s the Strike Price of a \u201cTrump Put\u201d?","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/212194\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"What\u2019s the Strike Price of a \u201cTrump Put\u201d?","og_description":"Regular readers should be quite familiar with our ongoing assertion that the stock market reaction to the events in the Persian Gulf is rather subdued, all things considered. In the span of just three weeks, we have seen oil prices spike, other commodities plunge, and interest rates surge as rate cut assumptions have been turned upside down. Nonetheless, in the month of March, US stock indices are down by less than 5%. 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He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/economy-down-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/212194","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=212194"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/212194\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/212195"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=212194"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=212194"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=212194"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=212194"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}