{"id":212158,"date":"2026-03-20T09:30:50","date_gmt":"2026-03-20T09:30:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=212158"},"modified":"2026-03-23T09:47:17","modified_gmt":"2026-03-23T09:47:17","slug":"gop-senate-lead-of-73-to-start-2026-is-down-to-just-54-today-march-19-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/gop-senate-lead-of-73-to-start-2026-is-down-to-just-54-today-march-19-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"GOP Senate Lead of 73% To Start 2026 Is Down to Just 54% Today: March 19, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The GOP\u2019s chances of maintaining a majority in the US Senate after the upcoming midterm elections have fallen from 73% as of the start of the year to 54% as of Thursday as American consumer sentiment remains in the tombs due to elevated inflation, restrictive interest rates, reduced job openings, the Iran war and a perception that tariffs are raising price pressures. President Trump\u2019s approval ratings have suffered as a result, and that has also weighed on the Republican Party\u2019s prospects in this year\u2019s midterm elections. However, it is typical to see the side in power lose seats in the congressional contests two years after its nominee for head of state wins at the ballots. Meanwhile, in the House of Representatives, the Democrats continue to maintain a sizeable advantage of 82%, which started the year at 75%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"575\" height=\"413\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-69.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - US Senate Majority open interest: 117.8k\" class=\"wp-image-212159 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-69.png 575w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-69-300x215.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 575px) 100vw, 575px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 575px; aspect-ratio: 575\/413;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"555\" height=\"414\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-70.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract -US House of Representatives Control , Open interest 1.0M\" class=\"wp-image-212160 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-70.png 555w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-70-300x224.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 555px) 100vw, 555px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 555px; aspect-ratio: 555\/414;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Hong Kong CPI Expected to Come In Around 1.3%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Friday\u2019s Hong Kong Consumer Price Index was expected to arrive around 1.3% with participants pricing a number above 1% at 93% on Thursday while considering a figure that fails to exceed 1.5% with an 82% degree of confidence. But the monthly Reuters poll of 7 forecasters carried a median estimate of 1.6% against the backdrop of minimum and maximum values of 1.4% and 1.7%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"164\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-71-1100x164.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - Will the year-over-year change in the Hong Kong Consumer Price Index exceed 1.5% in February 2026?\" class=\"wp-image-212161 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-71-1100x164.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-71-700x104.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-71-300x45.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-71-768x115.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-71-1536x229.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-71.png 1576w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/164;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"719\" height=\"679\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-72.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - Hong Kong Consumer Price Index \" class=\"wp-image-212162 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-72.png 719w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-72-700x661.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-72-300x283.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 719px) 100vw, 719px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 719px; aspect-ratio: 719\/679;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of March 19, 2026. Time until market closing was also as of the morning of March 19, 2026.<\/em>\u00a0 <em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/en\/learn.php\">here<\/a><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Disclaimer:<br>Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The GOP\u2019s chances of maintaining a majority in the US Senate after the upcoming midterm elections have fallen from 73% as of the start of the year to 54% as of Thursday as American consumer sentiment remains in the tombs due to elevated inflation, restrictive interest rates, reduced job openings, the Iran war and a perception that tariffs are raising price pressures.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":212163,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3164,148,7],"tags":[2162,2156],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":{"0":"post-212158","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-text-articles","9":"category-traders-insight","10":"tag-forecast-trader","11":"tag-forecastex","12":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>GOP Senate Lead of 73% To Start 2026 Is Down to Just 54% Today: March 19, 2026<\/title>\n<meta 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