{"id":212138,"date":"2026-03-19T10:24:38","date_gmt":"2026-03-19T10:24:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=212138"},"modified":"2026-03-23T09:21:02","modified_gmt":"2026-03-23T09:21:02","slug":"forecasters-expected-light-us-layoffs-ecb-pause-march-18-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecasters-expected-light-us-layoffs-ecb-pause-march-18-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecasters Expected Light US Layoffs, ECB Pause: March 18, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Forecasters in the Interactive Brokers prediction market on Wednesday expected US layoffs to remain contained in Thursday\u2019s initial unemployment claims report. Participants projected a number between 210k and 220k, generally speaking, as the \u201cYes\u201d on the former was priced at $0.68 while the \u201cNo\u201d on the latter was priced at $0.69. There was some activity at the lower and upper thresholds as well, with a 7% chance of a figure failing to exceed 200k as well as a 10% probability of a statistic arriving north of 230k. Meanwhile, this week\u2019s Reuters poll consisting of 33 economic prognosticators carried a median estimate of 215k alongside minimum and maximum values of 210k and 245k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"119\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-55-1100x119.png\" alt=\"Forecast contract - Will US initial Jobless Claims exceed 210,000 for the week ending March 14,2026?\" class=\"wp-image-212139 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-55-1100x119.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-55-700x75.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-55-300x32.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-55-768x83.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-55-1536x165.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-55.png 1578w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/119;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"715\" height=\"731\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-56.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contracts yes\/no - US Initial Jobless Claims.\" class=\"wp-image-212140 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-56.png 715w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-56-700x716.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-56-300x307.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 715px) 100vw, 715px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 715px; aspect-ratio: 715\/731;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>ECB Was Expect To Pause<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Also on Wednesday, the European Central Bank (ECB) was expected to leave rates unchanged during its meeting on the subsequent day with a 97% degree of confidence; however, the committee is growing wary of the spike in energy costs. Indeed, Euro fixed-income watchers are now pricing in approximately two 25-basis point hikes this year as the continent is increasingly vulnerable to surging oil prices since it\u2019s a major importer of crude.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"115\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-57-1100x115.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contracts - Will the ECB leave the rate unchanged in March 2026?\" class=\"wp-image-212141 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-57-1100x115.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-57-700x73.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-57-300x31.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-57-768x80.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-57-1536x160.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-57.png 1581w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/115;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of March 18, 2026.<\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video&nbsp;<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ceR-weGZSXc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><em><strong>here<\/strong><\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Disclaimer:<br>Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Forecasters in the Interactive Brokers prediction market on Wednesday expected US layoffs to remain contained in Thursday\u2019s initial unemployment claims report.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":212142,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3164,148,7],"tags":[3396,2162],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":{"0":"post-212138","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-text-articles","9":"category-traders-insight","10":"tag-forecast-contracts","11":"tag-forecast-trader","12":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - 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