{"id":212016,"date":"2026-03-12T12:30:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T16:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/whats-the-opposite-of-a-taco\/"},"modified":"2026-03-13T09:37:42","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T09:37:42","slug":"whats-the-opposite-of-a-taco","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/whats-the-opposite-of-a-taco\/","title":{"rendered":"What\u2019s the Opposite of a Taco?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Stocks were already selling off modestly before two significant statements about the Iran conflict hit the newswires and accelerated the declines.  Neither President Trump\u2019s nor the new Ayatollah\u2019s comments could be viewed as market friendly, but while the latter was an angry threat to prolong and expand the conflict, it was pretty much what one might expect him to say.  The President\u2019s comments, on the other hand, challenged investors\u2019 perceptions about a speedy end to hostilities and a fundamental tenet of US equities\u2019 placid response to the crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At 9:15 EDT, the following was posted on Truth Social<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Shortly thereafter, word reached global media from Iran\u2019s state TV of the Ayatollah\u2019s first message since assuming office.  He said that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed as a \u201ctool of pressure<\/a>\u201d, and that Iran would continue to attack the Persian Gulf and open unspecified \u201cother fronts\u201d<\/a> if the war continues.  In the aftermath of both, crude futures rose by nearly 10%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Neither of these can be considered favorable news by any means, but the latter is more of a reflection of the status quo.  The theocracy in Iran remains defiant and unlikely to surrender in the short-term despite sustaining obvious catastrophic damage.  The details are left to the imagination \u2013 including the Ayatollah\u2019s condition, since he was neither seen nor heard \u2013 but it is an indication that their position remains firm for now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Truth Social statement, however, does challenge a fundamental perception that is rooted in equity investors\u2019 psyches.  Major equity indices\u2019 relatively tepid responses have been predicated upon investors assuming a quick, relatively painless end to the actions.  That assumption is reasonably rooted in precedent.  Other US forays, such as the one in Venezuela, came to a rapid conclusion with virtually no lasting impact on stocks.  The most significant market reaction to this administration\u2019s policies came after the \u201cLiberation Day\u201d tariff announcement, and the initial tariffs were quickly amended after stocks flirted with a bear market. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The response to last April\u2019s selloff led to two related concepts \u2013 the \u201cTACO trade\u201d and the \u201cTrump Put\u201d.  Both refer to the President\u2019s well-stated preference for solid stock market returns and his willingness to amend policies if markets appear to be voting against them.   The Truth Social statement offered no reason to believe that the President had \u201cchickened out\u201d, as the TACO acronym implies, nor did it sound as though a change to a more market-friendly policy footing regarding the war was imminent. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bear in mind, if we use the \u201cLiberation Day\u201d response as a precedent for the \u201cTrump Put\u201d, the \u201cstrike price\u201d of that put was roughly -20% for SPX. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

For perspective, US stocks have barely budged in response to a series of events that have been considered a major \u201cblack swan\u201d for years.\u00a0 As I type this, the S&P 500 (SPX) is only down about 2.2% and above Monday morning\u2019s intraday low of 6636.04.\u00a0 The same can be said for the Nasdaq 100 (NDX), though it is down by a slightly greater 3.5% margin.\u00a0 If you consider these to be major negative reactions to important global events \u2013 bearing in mind that crude oil is about 66% higher in that time frame (!) \u2013 then cash in your mattress might be a better investment vehicle for you.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Just because investors have considered themselves relatively impervious to risk does not imply its absence.  Stocks\u2019 generally blas\u00e9 response so far is not a reason for investors to let their guard down. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

One key pillar supporting stocks\u2019 valuations has been steadily eroding as oil prices remain elevated.  As I typed this, we learned that Fed Funds futures, according to CME FedWatch<\/a>, were no longer fully pricing in a rate cut for the entirety of 2026.  Current pricing now implies a 92% chance for a cut by December.  Just six weeks ago, on February 5th<\/sup>, those traders were fully pricing in a rate cut by the June meeting, with a 14% probability for an additional cut, while two rate cuts plus a 42% probability for a third were priced in for December.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The changing perception about the potential for rate cuts is understandable, notwithstanding yesterday\u2019s decent CPI report<\/a>.  A sustained rise in global energy prices will do nothing to ease FOMC members\u2019 concerns about inflation and inflationary expectations.  The committee tends to focus on core inflation, excluding food and energy, but they can\u2019t be completely oblivious to pressures stemming from those factors.  Nonetheless, stock traders still seem poised to pounce on opportunities to find tradeable rallies.  Just before noon EDT, as I was finishing this piece, SPX had tried to bounce off its lows before fading once again.  Despite everything, the prevailing sentiment still reflects a fair amount of FOMO. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

While I don\u2019t know what the opposite of a taco might be, it\u2019s clear that FOMO is a key ingredient in Wall Street\u2019s favorite TACO. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Stocks were already selling off modestly before two significant statements about the Iran conflict hit the newswires and accelerated the declines.\u00a0 Neither President Trump\u2019s nor the new Ayatollah\u2019s comments could be viewed as market friendly, but while the latter was an angry threat to prolong and expand the conflict, it was pretty much what one might expect him to say.\u00a0 The President\u2019s comments, on the other hand, challenged investors\u2019 perceptions about a speedy end to hostilities and a fundamental tenet of US equities\u2019 placid response to the crisis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":205955,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[145,146,147,8,12,148,7],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[149],"class_list":{"0":"post-212016","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhat\u2019s the Opposite of a Taco? 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Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/06\/iran-usa-featured-img.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/212016","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=212016"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/212016\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/205955"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=212016"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=212016"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=212016"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=212016"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}