{"id":211979,"date":"2026-03-11T13:15:00","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T17:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/while-yawning-at-one-black-swan-another-looms\/"},"modified":"2026-03-12T11:45:51","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T11:45:51","slug":"while-yawning-at-one-black-swan-another-looms","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/while-yawning-at-one-black-swan-another-looms\/","title":{"rendered":"While Yawning at One Black Swan, Another Looms"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The situation in the Persian Gulf is undoubtedly the most important factor affecting global asset prices, even if the most interesting aspect of the story might be the lack of market reaction.\u00a0\u00a0 As we have discussed, closure of the Strait of Hormuz was always among risk managers\u2019 biggest fears, yet the consequences \u2013 at least so far \u2013 have been far less dire than feared.\u00a0 Even amidst the general lack of risk aversion related to those events, another set of concerns is spooking at least some investors \u2013 fears over private credit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although this is our first time discussing this topic at length, it has been coming up in conversation for some time. &nbsp;After two well-reported blowups occurred in October (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.kbb.com\/car-news\/a-big-auto-lender-went-bankrupt-heres-what-it-means\/\">Tricolor<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-10-09\/first-brands-how-jefferies-ubs-ended-up-exposed-to-its-collapse\">First Brands<\/a>), JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2025\/10\/16\/business\/jamie-dimon-us-economy-cockroaches\">famously commented<\/a>, \u201cI probably shouldn\u2019t say this, but when you see one cockroach, there are probably more\u2026 Everyone should be forewarned on this.\u201d &nbsp;Mohammed El-Erian, formerly CEO of PIMCO, <a href=\"https:\/\/uk.finance.yahoo.com\/news\/private-credit-great-divide-imminent-153338827.html\">called the suspension<\/a> of quarterly withdrawals from a Blue Owl (OWL) fund a \u201ccanary in the coal mine.\u201d &nbsp;&nbsp;Today, we see another round of selling in business development companies and other private credit sponsors after JPM <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/finance\/jpmorgan-marks-down-loan-portfolios-private-credit-groups-ft-reports-2026-03-11\/\">marked down the value<\/a> of certain loans held by private credit groups.&nbsp;&nbsp; At this point, there are plenty of investors avoiding, if not fleeing, the sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One could, of course, ask, why if Dimon warned about private credit cockroaches in October, is JPM only getting around to marking down exposure today?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Last week, I offered the following comments <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2026\/03\/06\/business\/private-credit-blue-owl-2008-nightcap\">to a CNN reporter<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u201cYou\u2019ve got an opaque set of loans, in many cases, backing an opaque set of companies,\u201d Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, told me. \u201cYou can come up with a scenario where it\u2019s unpleasant but relatively benign, but you can also come up with a scenario wherein a lot of mistakes are being papered over.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u201cThat doesn\u2019t mean we\u2019re set up for a private credit disaster that will unfold the same way the subprime mortgage disaster unfolded,\u201d he said. At the same time, \u201cthere are echoes\u201d of that earlier reckoning.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The reason why this matters is that the total amount of private credit is believed to be about $1.8 trillion.&nbsp; If even a modest proportion of those loans are either mis-marked, let alone severely impaired, that is a large hit to those who hold the loans and thus to those who lent money to those holders.&nbsp; This was the root of the problem in the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).&nbsp; Impaired loans related to subprime mortgages created problems throughout an interconnected financial system that metastasized in a highly unpleasant manner.&nbsp; As various people in the industry have related to me, there was a huge rush to deploy capital to a sector offering higher-than-normal returns and due diligence got skipped \u2013 both in the GFC and the private credit rush.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Remember, one person\u2019s liabilities are usually another\u2019s assets.&nbsp; If those liabilities get written down, then someone\u2019s assets are impaired.&nbsp; If they have liabilities backed by their assets, then someone else\u2019s assets are impaired.&nbsp; And so on, deflating the value of assets and liabilities throughout the system.&nbsp; This is why although inflation is bad, deflation is worse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Every new major financial innovation eventually gets a real-world test, and this is it for private credit.&nbsp; Yes, people have been lending money for thousands of years, but not in this specific manner.&nbsp; Ironically, the rush to tighten bank lending standards in the wake of the GFC led to the &nbsp;popularity of private credit to fill the void, first for leveraged buyout loans, then for a wide array of corporate lending.&nbsp; This pushed a huge segment of borrowing outside of a regulated environment.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At best, what we are seeing is a temporary, classic liquidity mismatch.&nbsp; These loans are long-term and illiquid in nature, and most of the funds that invest in them thus have gates that limit withdrawals. Most of the disgruntled investors are institutional, meaning they should have understood this feature and been prepared for this possibility. &nbsp;But investors have been storming those gates, forcing the funds either to disappoint those hoping to redeem their investments or to consider selling assets at steep discounts.&nbsp; (This raises the question about whether these funds should be allowed for retirement accounts as some sponsors have been lobbying.&nbsp; What will happen when retirees need to take minimum required distributions from 401(K) investments in illiquid funds of this type?)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unfortunately, financial history is littered with temporary liquidity mismatches that became major problems.&nbsp; The S&amp;L crisis of the \u201880s, let alone the bank runs in the \u201830s, started when short-term depositors overwhelmed banks and other institutions whose assets were primarily long-term in nature.&nbsp; We should all hope that this poorly-lit corner of the financial industry will benefit from some disinfecting sunshine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>6-Month Normalized Performance of Selected Publicly Traded Business Development Companies<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"690\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2026\/03\/image-42-1100x690.png\" alt=\"6-Month Normalized Performance of Selected Publicly Traded Business Development Companies\" class=\"wp-image-211981 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-42-1100x690.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-42-700x439.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-42-300x188.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-42-768x482.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/03\/image-42.png 1299w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/690;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em>, <em>past performance is not indicative of future returns.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The situation in the Persian Gulf is undoubtedly the most important factor affecting global asset prices, even if the most interesting aspect of the story might be the lack of market reaction.\u00a0\u00a0 As we have discussed, closure of the Strait of Hormuz was always among risk managers\u2019 biggest fears, yet the consequences \u2013 at least so far \u2013 have been far less dire than feared.\u00a0 Even amidst the general lack of risk aversion related to those events, another set of concerns is spooking at least some investors \u2013 fears over private credit.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":211980,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[145,146,147,8,12,148,7],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[149],"class_list":{"0":"post-211979","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - 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