{"id":211469,"date":"2026-02-11T09:55:56","date_gmt":"2026-02-11T09:55:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=211469"},"modified":"2026-02-11T14:10:44","modified_gmt":"2026-02-11T14:10:44","slug":"forecast-expectations-for-nonfarm-payrolls-unemployment-feb-10-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-expectations-for-nonfarm-payrolls-unemployment-feb-10-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast Expectations for Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment: Feb. 10, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Forecast expectations on Tuesdays for the following day\u2019s nonfarm payrolls print signaled a 55% probability of a figure north of 50k, but there was a wide range of possible outcomes when looking at estimates throughout Wall Street. The median estimate was 70k across the 75 economists in the monthly Reuters poll, which would be the strongest since September, although a few penciled in some surprises with the minimum and maximum values hovering at -10k and 135k. Meanwhile, participants in the IBKR prediction market priced out a 93% chance for a number above -50k.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"118\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/02\/image-16-1100x118.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - Will the increase in US Payroll Employment exceed 50,000 in January 2026?\" class=\"wp-image-211470 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/02\/image-16-1100x118.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/02\/image-16-700x75.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/02\/image-16-300x32.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/02\/image-16-768x82.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/02\/image-16-1536x165.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/02\/image-16.png 1578w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/118;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"892\" height=\"936\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/02\/image-17.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - US Payroll Employment.\" class=\"wp-image-211471 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/02\/image-17.png 892w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/02\/image-17-700x735.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/02\/image-17-300x315.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/02\/image-17-768x806.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 892px) 100vw, 892px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 892px; aspect-ratio: 892\/936;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Unemployment Is More Predictable<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The unemployment rate is more predictable because it has a subdued deviation history relative to its nonfarm payrolls counterpart which is released in the same publication. The IBKR prediction market on Tuesday generally expected a figure between 4.3% and 4.5% and similarly, the monthly Reuters poll of 74 forecasters carried a median of 4.4% amidst minimums and maximums at 4.3% and 4.5%. The probabilities in ForecastTrader of a number exceeding 4.2%, 4.3%, 4.4%, and 4.5% were at 93%, 69%, 34% and 15% Tuesday morning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"113\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/02\/image-18-1100x113.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract -  - Will the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4.4% in January 2026?\" class=\"wp-image-211473 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/02\/image-18-1100x113.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/02\/image-18-700x72.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/02\/image-18-300x31.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/02\/image-18-768x79.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/02\/image-18-1536x158.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/02\/image-18.png 1699w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/113;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"886\" height=\"1086\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/02\/image-19.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract -  US Unemployment Rate\" class=\"wp-image-211474 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/02\/image-19.png 886w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/02\/image-19-700x858.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/02\/image-19-300x368.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/02\/image-19-768x941.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 886px) 100vw, 886px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 886px; aspect-ratio: 886\/1086;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Feb. 10, 2026. Time until market close is also as of Feb. 10, 2026.<\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/en\/learn.php\">here<\/a><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Disclaimer:<br>Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Forecast expectations on Tuesdays for the following day\u2019s nonfarm payrolls print signaled a 55% probability of a figure north of 50k, but there was a wide range of possible outcomes when looking at estimates throughout Wall Street.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":211475,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3164,148,7],"tags":[3396,2162],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":{"0":"post-211469","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-text-articles","9":"category-traders-insight","10":"tag-forecast-contracts","11":"tag-forecast-trader","12":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - 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