{"id":211330,"date":"2026-02-04T08:33:32","date_gmt":"2026-02-04T08:33:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=211330"},"modified":"2026-02-05T11:51:12","modified_gmt":"2026-02-05T11:51:12","slug":"eu-cpi-was-expected-to-undershoot-ecbs-2-target-feb-3-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/eu-cpi-was-expected-to-undershoot-ecbs-2-target-feb-3-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"EU CPI Was Expected to Undershoot ECB\u2019s 2% Target: Feb. 3, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Wednesday\u2019s Eurozone Consumer Price Index was expected to be 1.7% on the night before the publication\u2019s release, which would be significantly below the European Central Bank\u2019s 2% target by a substantial margin, potentially opening the door to a resumption in the institution\u2019s cutting cycle. Many economists and investors believed that the easing process was over. But the range of possible outcomes for this specific report was particularly wide on Tuesday, Jan. 3, as the monthly Reuters poll of 45 forecasters was characterized by a minimum of 1.5% and a maximum of 2.1%. Still, this indicator rarely misses the median by more than 0.1% so it was expected to land between 1.6% and 1.8% in light of its historical tendencies. Against this backdrop, the \u201cNos\u201d answers contracts asking if the gauge would exceed 2% and 2.2% were priced at $0.72 and $0.95 on the eve of the publication\u2019s release<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"159\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/02\/image-2-1100x159.png\" alt=\"Forecast contract - Will the year over year change in the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices in the Eurozone exceed 2% in January 2026?\" class=\"wp-image-211331 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/02\/image-2-1100x159.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/02\/image-2-700x101.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/02\/image-2-300x43.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/02\/image-2-768x111.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/02\/image-2.png 1192w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/159;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"570\" height=\"597\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/02\/image-3.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices\" class=\"wp-image-211332 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/02\/image-3.png 570w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/02\/image-3-300x314.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 570px) 100vw, 570px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 570px; aspect-ratio: 570\/597;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Feb. 3, 2026. Time until market closing is also as of the morning of Feb. 3, 2026.<\/em>&nbsp;<em>Red circle around the thresholds was inserted by J. Torres to highlight \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/en\/learn.php\">here<\/a><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Disclaimer:<br>Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Wednesday\u2019s Eurozone Consumer Price Index was expected to be 1.7% on the night before the publication\u2019s release, which would be significantly below the European Central Bank\u2019s 2% target by a substantial margin, potentially opening the door to a resumption in the institution\u2019s cutting cycle. Many economists and investors believed that the easing process was over.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":211333,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3164,148,7],"tags":[3396,2162],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":["post-211330","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-forecast-contracts","tag-forecast-trader","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>EU CPI Was Expected to Undershoot ECB\u2019s 2% Target: Feb. 3, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/211330\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"EU CPI Was Expected to Undershoot ECB\u2019s 2% Target: Feb. 3, 2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Wednesday\u2019s Eurozone Consumer Price Index was expected to be 1.7% on the night before the publication\u2019s release, which would be significantly below the European Central Bank\u2019s 2% target by a substantial margin, potentially opening the door to a resumption in the institution\u2019s cutting cycle. 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