{"id":211238,"date":"2026-01-30T09:41:33","date_gmt":"2026-01-30T09:41:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=211238"},"modified":"2026-02-03T10:45:17","modified_gmt":"2026-02-03T10:45:17","slug":"wallers-dissent-yesterday-doubled-his-odds-to-18-before-retreating-jan-29-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/wallers-dissent-yesterday-doubled-his-odds-to-18-before-retreating-jan-29-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Waller\u2019s Dissent Yesterday Doubled His Odds to 18% Before Retreating: Jan. 29, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fed Governor Christopher Waller\u2019s decision to formally dissent Wednesday against the central bank\u2019s ruling to keep interest rates unchanged improved his odds of being nominated as chair. Indeed, his chances doubled from a low of 9% on Wednesday, Jan 28 to a high of 18% on Thursday, Jan. 29, before paring that advance and standing at around <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=802470036%7C20290121%7C3%7CJanuary%2020,%202029&amp;detail=contract_details\">12%<\/a> in the early afternoon. His likelihood of being chosen to the top spot sat in the basement on Saturday, Jan. 24, meanwhile, with his prospects at only 4%. Colleague Stephen Miran also disagreed with the hold verdict and favored a reduction of the same 25-basis point magnitude.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"677\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-74-1100x677.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - Will President Trump nominate Christopher Waller as Fed Chair?\" class=\"wp-image-211240 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-74-1100x677.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-74-700x431.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-74-300x185.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-74-768x472.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-74-1536x945.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-74.png 1590w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/677;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past Performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Eurozone Hasn\u2019t Exceeded 0.4% GDF Growth for 12 Quarters<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Eurozone\u2019s Gross Domestic Product result hasn\u2019t exceeded 0.4% for 13 consecutive quarters and none of the 40 forecasters in the Reuters monthly poll before the Friday, Jan. 30 release thought it would happen. Indeed, the median estimate was 0.2%, against the backdrop of a minimum and maximum of 0.1% and 0.4%. ForecastTrader offered contracts with a variety of thresholds, including <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=781673006%7C20260130%7C0.4%7CQ4%202025&amp;detail=contract_details\">0.4%.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"122\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-75-1100x122.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - Will the quarter-over-quarter growth rate of Eurozone GDP exceed 0.4% in Q4 2025?\" class=\"wp-image-211241 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-75-1100x122.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-75-700x78.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-75-300x33.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-75-768x85.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-75-1536x170.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-75.png 1579w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/122;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Eurozone Unemployment Near Fair Value Though<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Eurozone\u2019s unemployment rate was expected to remain unchanged at 6.3%, although a few of the surveyed economists penciled in a climb to 6.4%. The IBKR ForecastTrader on Thursday pointed to a 30% probability of an outcome arriving at <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=781672996%7C20260130%7C6.2%7CDecember%202025&amp;detail=contract_details\">6.2%<\/a> or under. A jump above <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=781672996%7C20260130%7C6.4%7CDecember%202025&amp;detail=contract_details\">6.4%<\/a> was relatively out of the cards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"126\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-76-1100x126.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract -Will Eurozone's Unemployment rate exceed 6.2% in December 2025?\" class=\"wp-image-211242 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-76-1100x126.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-76-700x80.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-76-300x34.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-76-768x88.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-76.png 1480w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/126;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"129\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-77-1100x129.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - Will Eurozone's Unemployment Rate exceed 6.4% in December 2025?\" class=\"wp-image-211243 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-77-1100x129.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-77-700x82.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-77-300x35.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-77-768x90.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-77.png 1403w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/129;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Higher Oil Prices Lead to Heavier Baltic Dry<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The recent increase in the Baltic Dry Index is unlikely to reverse drastically to 1,825 or under because oil prices are up 4% on Thursday, Jan. 29. The figure was poised to rise from this Thursday morning&#8217;s level of 2,016. The contract with a \u201cYes\u201d for a number above 1,825 expected for the Friday, Jan. 30 reading was prices at <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=806002105%7C20260130%7C1825%7CJanuary%2030,%202026&amp;detail=contract_details\">$0.88.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"115\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-78-1100x115.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - Will the Baltic Dry Index exceed 1,825 by January 30,2026?\" class=\"wp-image-211244 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-78-1100x115.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-78-700x73.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-78-300x31.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-78-768x80.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-78-1536x160.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-78.png 1570w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/115;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>SORA Is Volatile<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Singapore Overnight Rate Average (SORA) for Friday was expected to come in at or under 1.3% with a <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=725452876%7C20260129%7C1.3%7CJanuary%2030,%202026&amp;detail=contract_details\">64%<\/a> degree of certainty, although the benchmark has been highly volatile lately.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 29, 2026.<\/em>&nbsp;<em>Time until market close was also as of the morning of Jan. 29, 2026.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/en\/learn.php\">here<\/a><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Disclaimer:<br>Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fed Governor Christopher Waller\u2019s decision to formally dissent Wednesday against the central bank\u2019s ruling to keep interest rates unchanged improved his odds of being nominated as chair. Indeed, his chances doubled from a low of 9% on Wednesday, Jan 28 to a high of 18% on Thursday, Jan. 29, before paring that advance and standing at around 12% in the early afternoon. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":211239,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3164,148,7],"tags":[2162,2156],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":["post-211238","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-forecast-trader","tag-forecastex","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Waller\u2019s Dissent Yesterday Doubled His Odds to 18% Before Retreating: Jan. 29, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/211238\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Waller\u2019s Dissent Yesterday Doubled His Odds to 18% Before Retreating: Jan. 29, 2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Fed Governor Christopher Waller\u2019s decision to formally dissent Wednesday against the central bank\u2019s ruling to keep interest rates unchanged improved his odds of being nominated as chair. 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