{"id":211082,"date":"2026-01-28T10:10:59","date_gmt":"2026-01-28T10:10:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=211082"},"modified":"2026-01-28T22:28:57","modified_gmt":"2026-01-28T22:28:57","slug":"two-to-three-fed-cuts-expected-this-year-jan-27-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/two-to-three-fed-cuts-expected-this-year-jan-27-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Two To Three Fed Cuts Expected This Year: Jan. 27, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

On the eve of Wednesday\u2019s expected Fed decision to pause, the projected road ahead for additional accommodation is quite dovish. In 2026, prediction market participants believe that there are 21%<\/a> and 23% chances of exactly two or three rate cuts by year end. Meanwhile, there\u2019s an 11% likelihood of just one reduction and a 14% probability of four. Finally, when analyzing the odds as of Tuesday for deeper drops in the central bank\u2019s benchmark, prospects for precisely five<\/a> or six cuts are at only 5% and 3%.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"Forecast<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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\"Forecast<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Outlook For Dissenters Expect 1 or 2<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also on Tuesday, there was a 99% chance of a Fed pause but uncertainty related to voting members formally dissenting against the central bank\u2019s decision. Indeed, the probability of exactly one<\/a>, two or three officials disagreeing with the verdict were at 46%, 41% and 10%, with Governor Stephen Miran, who supports much deeper cuts, sustaining the outlook for continued objections at current and future meetings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Forecast<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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\"Forecast<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bank of Canada Also Expected to Pause<\/strong> Wednesday\u2019s Bank of Canada (BoC) decision was also expected to feature a pause with a 99% degree of certainty as monetary policy officials in Ottawa face similar conditions as their Washington counterparts. Indeed, persistent economic growth and above target inflation are keeping both institutions on hold as they wait for risks of declining employment trends or accelerating cost pressures to respond via looser or tighter polices.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Forecast<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

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\"Forecast<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 27, 2026. Tim in until market closing is also as of Jan. 27, 2026.<\/em> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Disclaimer:<\/strong>
Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On the eve of Wednesday\u2019s expected Fed decision to pause, the projected road ahead for additional accommodation is quite dovish. In 2026, prediction market participants believe that there are 21% and 23% chances of exactly two or three rate cuts by year end. Meanwhile, there\u2019s an 11% likelihood of just one reduction and a 14% probability of four. Finally, when analyzing the odds as of Tuesday for deeper drops in the central bank\u2019s benchmark, prospects for precisely five or six cuts are at only 5% and 3%.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":211089,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3164,148,7],"tags":[2162,2156],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":["post-211082","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-forecast-trader","tag-forecastex","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTwo To Three Fed Cuts Expected This Year: Jan. 27, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/211082\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Two To Three Fed Cuts Expected This Year: Jan. 27, 2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"On the eve of Wednesday\u2019s expected Fed decision to pause, the projected road ahead for additional accommodation is quite dovish. 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