{"id":210897,"date":"2026-01-23T09:46:51","date_gmt":"2026-01-23T09:46:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=210897"},"modified":"2026-01-23T15:29:10","modified_gmt":"2026-01-23T15:29:10","slug":"greenland-part-of-us-contract-rises-to-61-record-before-retreating-jan-22-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/greenland-part-of-us-contract-rises-to-61-record-before-retreating-jan-22-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Greenland Part of US Contract Rises To 61% Record Before Retreating: Jan. 22, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turbulent developments in Davos involving tariff threats against certain European countries sent the odds of any portion of Greenland becoming part of the US in some capacity up to a record of 61%. But then, a framework set by President Trump and NATO Chief Mark Rutte, whose details remain fluid and uncertain, sparked volatility in this contract on Thursday, as investors grappled with the sovereignty implications of a greater American presence in the self-governed Danish territory. A common question is whether the White House will be satisfied controlling parts of the world\u2019s largest island without it formally belonging to Washington. The probability sank to 44%<\/a> following the spike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Forecast<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Japan CPI \u201cYes\u201d Is Undervalued<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Japan\u2019s Consumer Price Index (CPI) \u201cYes\u201d<\/a> contract for the benchmark to produce unchanged result 113.2 was priced at $0.46 on Wednesday.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Forecast<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bank of Japan Expected to Keep Rates Steady<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Participants on Wednesday were nearly 100%<\/a> sure that the Bank of Japan will not change its interest rate at its Thursday meeting.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Forecast<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UMich 56 \u201cNo\u201d Is Undervalued<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The University of Michigan\u2019s (UMich) Consumer Sentiment revisions have been historically modest, and an upgrade of 2.1 has rarely occurred. Indeed, a final reading of 56 on Thursday was extremely unlikely as of Wednesday. The \u201cNo\u201d contract with a threshold of 56 was priced at $0.74<\/a> on the day before the print\u2019s release.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Forecast<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Singaporean CPI \u201cYes\u201d Is Undervalued<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Wednesday, the Singapore CPI was expected to come in at 1.2%, while the range of the 17 forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll sport a minimum of 0.9% and a maximum of 1.3%. On Wednesday, the \u201cYes\u201d contract for a threshold of 1%<\/a> was priced at $0.70.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Forecast<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 22, 2026. Contract time until market close is also as of Jan. 22, 2026.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Disclaimer:<\/strong>
Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Turbulent developments in Davos involving tariff threats against certain European countries sent the odds of any portion of Greenland becoming part of the US in some capacity up to a record of 61%. But then, a framework set by President Trump and NATO Chief Mark Rutte, whose details remain fluid and uncertain, sparked volatility in this contract on Thursday, as investors grappled with the sovereignty implications of a greater American presence in the self-governed Danish territory. A common question is whether the White House will be satisfied controlling parts of the world\u2019s largest island without it formally belonging to Washington. The probability sank to 44% following the spike.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":210903,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3164,148,7],"tags":[3396,2162],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":["post-210897","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-forecast-contracts","tag-forecast-trader","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nGreenland Part of US Contract Rises To 61% Record Before Retreating: Jan. 22, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/210897\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Greenland Part of US Contract Rises To 61% Record Before Retreating: Jan. 22, 2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Turbulent developments in Davos involving tariff threats against certain European countries sent the odds of any portion of Greenland becoming part of the US in some capacity up to a record of 61%. 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