{"id":210857,"date":"2026-01-22T09:07:44","date_gmt":"2026-01-22T09:07:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=210857"},"modified":"2026-01-29T10:31:56","modified_gmt":"2026-01-29T10:31:56","slug":"opinions-and-expectations-for-econ-data-expiring-tomorrow-jan-21-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/opinions-and-expectations-for-econ-data-expiring-tomorrow-jan-21-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Opinions and Expectations for Econ Data Expiring Tomorrow: Jan. 21, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Wednesday, economists anticipated that the Thursday release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index for October would show a 2.7% increase. Of the various IBKR ForcastTrader contracts addressing this topic, the instrument with \u201cYes\u201d at 2.5% was priced at $0.89<\/a>. The well-telegraphed print, in light of the indices for consumers and producers serving as inputs and being released much earlier in the month, has an incredibly narrow path to arrive at a figure that low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Forecast<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hong Kong CPI Expected at 1.2%, But Its Historically Volatile<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even though none of the seven forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll envision a number of 1.5% or higher for the Thursday Hong Kong Consumer Price Index release (they\u2019re between 1.1% and 1.4%), this indicator has been historically volatile. As of Wednesday, of the various contracts focused on this release, \u201cYes\u201d<\/a> at 1.4% was priced at $0.05. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Forecast<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Growth Expectations Are Strong<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 13-week moving average of the Dallas Fed\u2019s Economic Index has been running at 2.23% but ForecastTrader participants think there\u2019s a good chance that this year will feature a reacceleration in growth after last week\u2019s strong 2.43% reading. Indeed, for Thursday\u2019s result, investors on Wednesday had priced in 43%<\/a> odds of a number north of 2.4%, which would mark the second print in a row above that threshold, which is a pretty tall bar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Forecast<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Claims Have Been All Over the Place<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Initial US unemployment claims<\/a> have been all over the place lately, as is typical surrounding holiday months. Emblematic of the volatility were the last three months serving numbers as high as 237k for the week ended Dec. 6 or as low as 192k for the seven-day period culminating on Nov. 29.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Forecast<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Can Canada New Homes Come in Positive?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Canada\u2019s New Housing Price Index hasn\u2019t come in positive since February, but ForecastTrader investors see a path back to growth in December. Indeed, the \u201cYes\u201d at -0.1% signaled Wednesday afternoon  61%<\/a> odds of a figure landing at 0 or above.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Forecast<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 21, 2026. Contract time until market close is also as of Jan. 21, 2026.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em>here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Disclaimer:<\/strong>
Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On Wednesday, economists anticipated that the Thursday release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index for October would show a 2.7% increase. Of the various IBKR ForcastTrader contracts addressing this topic, the instrument with \u201cYes\u201d at 2.5% was priced at $0.89. The well-telegraphed print, in light of the indices for consumers and producers serving as inputs and being released much earlier in the month, has an incredibly narrow path to arrive at a figure that low.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":210862,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3164,148,7],"tags":[3396,2162],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":["post-210857","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-forecast-contracts","tag-forecast-trader","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nOpinions and Expectations for Econ Data Expiring Tomorrow: Jan. 21, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/210857\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Opinions and Expectations for Econ Data Expiring Tomorrow: Jan. 21, 2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"On Wednesday, economists anticipated that the Thursday release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index for October would show a 2.7% increase. 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