{"id":210691,"date":"2026-01-13T14:24:01","date_gmt":"2026-01-13T14:24:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=210691"},"modified":"2026-01-14T10:55:15","modified_gmt":"2026-01-14T10:55:15","slug":"fed-independence-factor-weighs-on-warshs-odds-cpi-expectations-for-tomorrow-jan-12-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/fed-independence-factor-weighs-on-warshs-odds-cpi-expectations-for-tomorrow-jan-12-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed Independence Factor Weighs on Warsh\u2019s Odds, CPI Expectations for Tomorrow: Jan. 12, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">News that the DOJ is investigating Fed Chair Jerome Powell shifted the odds in our prediction market as to who President Trump will nominate to lead the central bank next. Since Kevin Warsh is a former governor of the monetary policy institution, his probability dropped from 44% to <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=802470036%7C20290121%7C1%7C&amp;detail=contract_details\">38%<\/a> over the weekend, as he\u2019s potentially seen as a fellow that may defend Fed independence and at times stand at conflict with the head of state. Participants may believe that the other Kevin, meanwhile, Hasset, who has never maintained a political appointment at the Fed and is more distant as Director of the National Economic Council, has a stronger <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=802470036%7C20290121%7C2%7CJanuary%2020,%202029&amp;detail=contract_details\">chance<\/a> of securing the spot in light of the perception that the commander in chief is looking to increasingly influence the organization\u2019s decisions and could choose someone with a higher likelihood of considering his suggestions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"480\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-22-1100x480.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - Will President Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?\" class=\"wp-image-210692 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-22-1100x480.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-22-700x305.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-22-300x131.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-22-768x335.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-22.png 1119w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/480;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"571\" height=\"638\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-23.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - Presidential Nomination for Fed Chair\" class=\"wp-image-210693 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-23.png 571w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-23-300x335.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 571px) 100vw, 571px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 571px; aspect-ratio: 571\/638;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>CPI Estimates Are All Over the Place<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report scheduled for Tuesday, Jan. 12, had potentially to come in significantly different than Wall Street\u2019s projections because of adverse impacts from the government shutdown ,which influenced how shelter was measured. The component is the heaviest weighting in the pivotal economic indicator at north of 40% and how it\u2019s handled in the Tuesday was a critical question that economists carefully pondered on Monday. It\u2019s absolutely that development that had estimates sitting all over the place, with the 41 professional forecasters surveyed in the monthly Reuters poll at a minimum of 2.5% and a maximum of 2.9%. This is rare for a gauge that is usually well telegraphed by prognosticators and has a narrower historical width amongst analysts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 12, 2026. Time to expiration was also as of the morning of Jan. 12, 2026. <\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/en\/learn.php\">here<\/a><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Disclaimer:<br>Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>News that the DOJ is investigating Fed Chair Jerome Powell shifted the odds in our prediction market as to who President Trump will nominate to lead the central bank next. Since Kevin Warsh is a former governor of the monetary policy institution, his probability dropped from 44% to 38% over the weekend, as he\u2019s potentially seen as a fellow that may defend Fed independence and at times stand at conflict with the head of state.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":210694,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3164,148,7],"tags":[3396,2162],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":["post-210691","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-forecast-contracts","tag-forecast-trader","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fed Independence Factor Weighs on Warsh\u2019s Odds, CPI Expectations for Tomorrow: Jan. 12, 2026<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/210691\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Fed Independence Factor Weighs on Warsh\u2019s Odds, CPI Expectations for Tomorrow: Jan. 12, 2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"News that the DOJ is investigating Fed Chair Jerome Powell shifted the odds in our prediction market as to who President Trump will nominate to lead the central bank next. 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