{"id":210634,"date":"2026-01-08T09:45:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-08T14:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/cooling-off-despite-some-hot-economic-data\/"},"modified":"2026-01-12T10:00:35","modified_gmt":"2026-01-12T10:00:35","slug":"cooling-off-despite-some-hot-economic-data","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/cooling-off-despite-some-hot-economic-data\/","title":{"rendered":"Cooling off despite some hot economic data"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Briefing.com Summary:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*The stock market is seeing follow-through selling interest ahead of the open.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*This morning&#8217;s economic data was categorically good for growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*President Trump wants to see a $1.5 trillion defense budget for FY27 versus $1.0 trillion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We noted yesterday how the stock market had gotten off to a good start in 2026. Some of that goodness was minimized yesterday, though, by profit-taking interest in some of the leadership areas like small-cap stocks, semiconductors, Dow components, and high-beta issues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There is a continued move this morning to take some money off the table despite a slate of economic data that was better than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Currently, the S&amp;P 500 futures are down seven points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 35 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 183 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is a bit surprising that the futures didn&#8217;t turn higher after the data, which was categorically good for growth.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Q3 productivity increased 4.9% in the third quarter (Briefing.com consensus: 2.5%) following an upwardly revised 4.1% (from 3.3%) in the second quarter. Unit labor costs decreased 1.9% (Briefing.com consensus: 0.8%) following a downwardly revised 2.9% decline (from 1.0%) in the second quarter.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The key takeaway from the report is that it is the golden ticket for the economy (and the Fed, per chance), as it reflects strong growth without labor cost inflation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Initial jobless claims for the week ending January 3 increased by 8,000 to 208,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 217,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending December 27 increased by 56,000 to 1.914 million.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The key takeaway from the report is that initial claims are quite low to support a view that consumer spending should hold up; however, continuing claims remain high enough to support a view that the Fed will worry enough about a softening in the labor market (i.e., weak hiring activity) such that it remains inclined to pursue easier monetary policy.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The U.S. trade deficit in October narrowed sharply to $29.4 billion (Briefing.com consensus: -$61.3 billion) from an upwardly revised deficit of $48.1 billion (from -$59.6 billion) in September. The improvement resulted from exports being $7.8 billion more than September exports and imports being $11.0 billion less than September imports.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The key takeaway from the report is that the headline deficit number is the lowest since June 2009. A residual takeaway is that the improvement clearly has something to do with the introduction of higher tariff rates that have detracted from import demand.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Looking beyond the economic data, defense stocks are rallying on President Trump&#8217;s pronouncement that he would like to see a $1.5 trillion defense budget for FY27 versus $1.0 trillion. There are questions as to whether such a request would pass the sniff test of budget hawks in Congress, who are also taxed (no pun intended) with other narratives that include a desire to buy Greenland, efforts to extend ACA subsidies, running Venezuela for an extended period, and paying a tariff dividend to many Americans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As an aside, it is possible that the Supreme Court this Friday issues a ruling that invalidates the president&#8217;s IEEPA tariffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That may be why the Treasury market isn&#8217;t looking enamored with the otherwise encouraging Q3 productivity data. Unit labor costs are falling, but government costs don&#8217;t appear to be aligned on the same trajectory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The 2-yr note yield is up two basis points to 3.49%, and the 10-yr note yield is up four basis points to 4.18%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>*The stock market is seeing follow-through selling interest ahead of the open.<\/p>\n<p>*This morning&#8217;s economic data was categorically good for growth.<\/p>\n<p>*President Trump wants to see a $1.5 trillion defense budget for FY27 versus $1.0 trillion.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60,"featured_media":200329,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[146,147,8,12,148,7],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[412],"class_list":{"0":"post-210634","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"contributors-categories-briefing-com"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Cooling off despite some hot economic data<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"*The stock market is seeing follow-through selling interest ahead of the open.*This morning&#039;s economic data was categorically good for growth.*President...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/210634\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Cooling off despite some hot economic data\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"*The stock market is seeing follow-through selling interest ahead of the open.*This morning&#039;s economic data was categorically good for growth.*President Trump wants to see a $1.5 trillion defense budget for FY27 versus $1.0 trillion.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/cooling-off-despite-some-hot-economic-data\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus EU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-01-08T14:45:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-01-12T10:00:35+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/11\/economic-data-featured-img-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1000\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"563\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Patrick J. O\u2019Hare\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Patrick J. O\u2019Hare\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"Article\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/cooling-off-despite-some-hot-economic-data\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/securities\\\/macro\\\/cooling-off-despite-some-hot-economic-data\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Patrick J. 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