{"id":210611,"date":"2026-01-09T08:55:50","date_gmt":"2026-01-09T08:55:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=210611"},"modified":"2026-01-12T10:25:03","modified_gmt":"2026-01-12T10:25:03","slug":"just-a-23-chance-that-the-supreme-court-upholds-trump-tariffs-jan-8-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/just-a-23-chance-that-the-supreme-court-upholds-trump-tariffs-jan-8-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Just a 23% Chance That the Supreme Court Upholds Trump Tariffs: Jan. 8, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There\u2019s a heavy amount of pessimism concerning whether the US Supreme Court will uphold President Trump\u2019s tariffs. The chances were a coin-flip prior to the Justice\u2019s initial opinions, in which several conservative members questioned the commander in chief\u2019s authority to implement broad-based levies on a plethora of nations. Following those developments, trading has been quite volatile, as odds rose to 34% on the day after Christmas before falling to 21% on Jan. 3 and then reaching a high of <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=813325820%7C20260731%7C1%7C&amp;detail=contract_details\">31%<\/a> on Jan. 8. The stakes are elevated as the nation\u2019s highest court gears up for the decision, with the US collecting roughly $313 billion in duty revenues since the beginning of fiscal year 2025 through December. Indeed, a blockage would likely hamper onshoring ambitions, worsen the country&#8217;s budgetary health and send rates higher. Conversely, near-term corporate earnings would strengthen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"358\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-16-1100x358.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - Will the supreme Court uphold Trumps tariffs by July 31, 2026?\" class=\"wp-image-210612 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-16-1100x358.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-16-700x228.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-16-300x98.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-16-768x250.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-16-1536x500.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2026\/01\/image-16-2048x667.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/358;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Past Performance is not indicative of future results <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 8, 2026.<\/em> <em>Time to expiration is also as of Jan. 8.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/en\/learn.php\">here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Disclaimer:<br>Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There\u2019s a heavy amount of pessimism concerning whether the US Supreme Court will uphold President Trump\u2019s tariffs. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":210614,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3164,148,7],"tags":[3396,2162],"contributors-categories":[],"class_list":["post-210611","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-forecast-contracts","tag-forecast-trader"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.4) - 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