{"id":210179,"date":"2025-12-17T08:45:39","date_gmt":"2025-12-17T08:45:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=210179"},"modified":"2025-12-19T16:41:56","modified_gmt":"2025-12-19T16:41:56","slug":"warsh-takes-the-lead-in-fed-chair-contract-dec-16-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/warsh-takes-the-lead-in-fed-chair-contract-dec-16-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Warsh Takes the Lead in Fed Chair Contract: Dec. 16, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh captured the lead on Tuesday in the race to become the Fed chair nomination with the probabilities shown on <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=802470036%7C20290121%7C1%7C&amp;detail=contract_details\">ForecastEx<\/a> of him securing the slot hitting the highest of the candidates. Meanwhile, news that President Trump will hold a few more meetings with several candidates bolstered current Governor Christopher Waller\u2019s chances to 9% as on Tuesday, placing him in third place. The Kevins are still neck and neck, however, with one at 46% and the other at 41%. There are approximately 40k contracts connected to the commander in chief\u2019s decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"80\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-58-1100x80.png\" alt=\"Will President Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?\" class=\"wp-image-210181 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-58-1100x80.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-58-700x51.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-58-300x22.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-58-768x56.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-58-1536x112.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-58-2048x149.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/80;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"80\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-59-1100x80.png\" alt=\"Will President Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair?\" class=\"wp-image-210182 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-59-1100x80.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-59-700x51.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-59-300x22.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-59-768x56.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-59-1536x112.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-59-2048x149.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/80;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"80\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-60-1100x80.png\" alt=\"Will President Trump nominate Christopher Waller as Fed Chair?\" class=\"wp-image-210183 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-60-1100x80.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-60-700x51.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-60-300x22.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-60-768x56.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-60-1536x112.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-60-2048x149.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/80;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>ForecastEx Sees Broad Participation on Monday<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Monday\u2019s trading volume on ForecastEx totaled 2.69 million, which was dominated by the daily high temperatures across major US cities. But other themes with overall transactions of 10k or higher included the prices of <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=793085688%7C20251231%7C85000%7CDecember%2031,%202025&amp;detail=contract_details\">Bitcoin<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=793085673%7C20251231%7C145%7CDecember%2031,%202025&amp;detail=contract_details\">Solana<\/a> the US and Hong Kong dollar <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=796079999%7C20251219%7C7.779%7CDecember%2019,%202025&amp;detail=contract_details\">currency pair<\/a>.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"87\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-61-1100x87.png\" alt=\"Will the highest temperature in Miami exceed 75 F on December 16, 2025? \" class=\"wp-image-210184 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-61-1100x87.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-61-700x55.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-61-300x24.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-61-768x61.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-61-1536x121.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-61-2048x162.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/87;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"86\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-62-1100x86.png\" alt=\"Will Bitcoin's price exceed $85,000 on December 31\/2025 at 4 PM CT? \" class=\"wp-image-210185 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-62-1100x86.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-62-700x55.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-62-300x23.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-62-768x60.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-62-1536x120.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-62-2048x160.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/86;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"86\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-63-1100x86.png\" alt=\"Will Solana's price exceed $145 on December 31, 2025 at 4 PM CT? \" class=\"wp-image-210186 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-63-1100x86.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-63-700x55.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-63-300x23.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-63-768x60.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-63-1536x120.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-63.png 2040w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/86;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"97\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-64-1100x97.png\" alt=\"Will the USD\/HKD exchange rate exceed 7.779 on December 19, 2025? \" class=\"wp-image-210187 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-64-1100x97.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-64-700x62.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-64-300x27.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-64-768x68.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-64-1536x136.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-64.png 1839w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/97;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 16, 2025. Time to expiration is also as of Dec. 16.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/en\/learn.php\">here<\/a><em><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh captured the lead on Tuesday in the race to become the Fed chair nomination with the probabilities shown on ForecastEx of him securing the slot hitting the highest of the candidates. Meanwhile, news that President Trump will hold a few more meetings with several candidates bolstered current Governor Christopher Waller\u2019s chances to 9% as on Tuesday, placing him in third place. The Kevins are still neck and neck, however, with one at 46% and the other at 41%. There are approximately 40k contracts connected to the commander in chief\u2019s decision.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":210189,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3164,148,7,1],"tags":[3396,2162],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":{"0":"post-210179","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-text-articles","9":"category-traders-insight","10":"category-uncategorized","11":"tag-forecast-contracts","12":"tag-forecast-trader","13":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - 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hitting the highest of the candidates.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/warsh-takes-the-lead-in-fed-chair-contract-dec-16-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus EU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-12-17T08:45:39+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-12-19T16:41:56+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/fed_podium_featured-img-700x394-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"700\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"394\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jose Torres\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" 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