{"id":210141,"date":"2025-12-16T09:16:36","date_gmt":"2025-12-16T09:16:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=210141"},"modified":"2025-12-19T00:02:39","modified_gmt":"2025-12-19T00:02:39","slug":"next-fed-chair-warsh-and-hasset-are-now-neck-and-neck-dec-15-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/next-fed-chair-warsh-and-hasset-are-now-neck-and-neck-dec-15-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Next Fed Chair: Warsh and Hasset Are Now Neck and Neck: Dec. 15, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">An eventful weekend on ForecastEx featured north of 28 million contracts traded on December 13 and 14. Some of the instruments with the most engagement were the daily high temperatures across major US cities, the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=796603920%7C20251218%7C1%7C\">Bank of Japan\u2019s<\/a> decision on Thursday\u2019s and rate verdicts from the <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=791099755%7C20260128%7C3%7CJanuary%202026\">Federal Reserve<\/a> in 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"81\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-51-1100x81.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - Will the highest temperature in NYC exceed 28F on December 15,2025?\" class=\"wp-image-210142 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-51-1100x81.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-51-700x52.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-51-300x22.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-51-768x57.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-51-1536x114.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-51-2048x151.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/81;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"86\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-52-1100x86.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - Will the Bank of Japan raise the rate at the December 19, 2025 meeting?\" class=\"wp-image-210143 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-52-1100x86.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-52-700x55.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-52-300x23.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-52-768x60.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-52-1536x120.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-52-2048x160.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/86;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"87\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-53-1100x87.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract -  Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in January 2026?\" class=\"wp-image-210144 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-53-1100x87.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-53-700x55.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-53-300x24.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-53-768x61.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-53-1536x121.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-53-2048x162.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/87;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Fed Chair Odds: Hassett at 43%, Warsh at 41%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Worries from Washington officials that National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is too close to President Trump and the contender\u2019s constant mentions of the need for an apolitical, independent central bank whose decisions aren\u2019t influenced by the White House have plunged his chances from 90% on Dec. 3 to 43% as of Monday. Meanwhile, the commander in chief mentioning that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is at the top spot has lifted his probability from 9% on Dec. 9 to a high of <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=802470036%7C20290121%7C1%7C&amp;detail=contract_details\">43%<\/a> on Friday. Approximately 41k contracts are open tied to the nomination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"975\" height=\"317\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-54.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract -  Will the President nominate Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?\" class=\"wp-image-210145 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-54.png 975w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-54-700x228.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-54-300x98.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-54-768x250.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 975px) 100vw, 975px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 975px; aspect-ratio: 975\/317;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Gasoline Prices Plunged Again Last Week<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gasoline futures prices plunged last week, indicating an abundant supply environment. But sometimes those decreases aren\u2019t immediately felt in retail costs, which are less volatile and respond in a slower way. The previous two weeks featured plunges from $3.061 to $2.985 and then to $2.94, and against that backdrop, I believe the \u201cYes\u201d contract at <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=751047545%7C20251216%7C2.9%7CDecember%2015,%202025&amp;detail=contract_details\">$2.90<\/a> is undervalued at $0.10 for this week\u2019s print. Indeed, I think the price should be closer to $0.25, in response to retailers looking to sustain pricing power following two consecutive weeks with sharp drops.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"86\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-55-1100x86.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - Will US Gasoline prices exceed $2.9 for the week ending December 15 2026?\" class=\"wp-image-210146 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-55-1100x86.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-55-700x55.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-55-300x23.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-55-768x60.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-55-1536x120.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-55-2048x160.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/86;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>New Residential Construction Expectations<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Expectations for November building permits and housing starts are near consensus estimates, with the former sporting odds of <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=712856699%7C20251216%7C1300000%7CNovember%202025\">59%<\/a> of a number north of 1.3 million amidst a 69% probability of a figure south of 1.351 million. Similarly, the latter prices a <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=658663557%7C20251216%7C1300000%7CNovember%202025\">53%<\/a> chance of a result exceeding 1.3 million as of Monday and an 82% likelihood that the print won\u2019t come in above 1.4 million. The market\u2019s projections are at 1.34 million and 1.32 million, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"581\" height=\"692\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-56.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - US Building Permits Initial \" class=\"wp-image-210147 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-56.png 581w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-56-300x357.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 581px) 100vw, 581px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 581px; aspect-ratio: 581\/692;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"567\" height=\"586\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-57.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - US Housing Starts\" class=\"wp-image-210148 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-57.png 567w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-57-300x310.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 567px) 100vw, 567px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 567px; aspect-ratio: 567\/586;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 15, 2025. Time to expiration is also as of morning of Dec. 15<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/en\/learn.php\">here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Disclaimer:<br>Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>An eventful weekend on ForecastEx featured north of 28 million contracts traded on December 13 and 14. Some of the instruments with the most engagement were the daily high temperatures across major US cities, the Bank of Japan\u2019s decision on Thursday\u2019s and rate verdicts from the Federal Reserve in 2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":210149,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3164,7],"tags":[3396,2162],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":["post-210141","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-traders-insight","tag-forecast-contracts","tag-forecast-trader","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Next Fed Chair: Warsh and Hasset Are Now Neck and Neck: Dec. 15, 2025<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/210141\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Next Fed Chair: Warsh and Hasset Are Now Neck and Neck: Dec. 15, 2025\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"An eventful weekend on ForecastEx featured north of 28 million contracts traded on December 13 and 14. 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