{"id":210090,"date":"2025-12-11T13:03:13","date_gmt":"2025-12-11T18:03:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/goldilocks-final-stand-supplants-the-hawks\/"},"modified":"2025-12-14T22:23:50","modified_gmt":"2025-12-14T22:23:50","slug":"goldilocks-final-stand-supplants-the-hawks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/goldilocks-final-stand-supplants-the-hawks\/","title":{"rendered":"Goldilocks\u2019 Final Stand Supplants the Hawks"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By now, yesterday\u2019s FOMC meeting and subsequent press conference are in the rear-view mirror.  As I\u2019d hoped yesterday, we got it over with<\/a>.  After some back and forth activity as traders tried to determine exactly how to interpret the FOMC statement<\/a>, Chair Powell once again mollified them as he reverted to his familiar \u201cGoldilocks in a Suit<\/a>\u201d posture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To recap, the FOMC cut rates by an as-expected 25 basis points despite three dissents (two wanted no cut, the other wanted 50bp), issued a Summary of Economic Projections<\/a> (aka \u201cdot plot\u201d) that continued to show expectations for a single cut in 2026, and after judging that<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026reserve balances have declined to ample levels and will initiate purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities as needed to maintain an ample supply of reserves on an ongoing basis<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

the New York Fed announced<\/a> changes to its standing repurchase operations that allow it to start buying T-bills to add reserves to the financial system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I offered my initial reaction to a reporter about 15 minutes after the statement arrived, saying<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The dot plot for 2026 didn\u2019t change, and the door remains open for cuts or stasis at the upcoming meetings.  If nobody is fully happy or angry then they probably did their job.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

That \u201cnot too hot, not too cold\u201d was the first sign that Goldilocks might be entering the building.  I then wrote down these thoughts as I listened to the press conference<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNot raising\u201d is apparently the new cutting<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This was not a hawkish cut; it was a Goldilocks cut<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Should the markets have been so enthused yesterday afternoon?  I suppose so, given the traders\u2019 disposition toward taking any piece of news that can be reasonably interpreted as positive as a reason to rally.  And there were indeed some justifications even beyond the well anticipated rate move.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, traders are justifiably disposed toward taking any sign of monetary accommodation as a positive.  As noted above, the rate cut itself was essentially priced into the market, but the T-bill purchases were not.  On balance, that can be interpreted as a very slight bit of quantitative easing.  Any time the Fed buys securities in the open market, those dollars enter the financial system.  Considering that this move was likely in response to stress in the interbank funding market, it is not an unbridled positive, but it is nonetheless an accommodative step.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Second, the 10-year yield has moved from touching 4.20% pre-meeting yesterday to 4.11% now, meaning it\u2019s fair to say that bond investors are not overly concerned that the Fed is losing sight of inflationary pressures.  Although the spread between 2- and 10-year yields widened to over 60bp, that is still within the upper end of a trading range that has persisted for months.   If the bond folks aren\u2019t too worried, why should stock traders be?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet many of us woke up to sharply lower futures thanks to poorly received results from Oracle (ORCL) after the close.  The company\u2019s EPS beat estimates, but its third straight quarterly cash flow burn while forecasting higher capital expenditures was understandably unwelcome.  There is good reason why ORCL traded as much as -15% lower today.  We flagged these concerns as early as September 22nd<\/sup><\/a> and October 6th<\/sup><\/a>, and while investors might express similar worries about other companies expecting huge commitments from OpenAI and its peers, the market has certainly been expressing its unease with ORCL recently and today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Resolute as always, however, the S&P 500 (SPX) just eked into positive territory as I was about to wrap up this piece shortly after noon EST.  This morning\u2019s trading was a bit of a push\/pull between investors who are justifiably spooked by the aforementioned fears about AI spending alongside an active rotation into the financials, materials, and health care sectors \u2013 not to mention the ongoing momentum in the Russell 2000 (RTY).  Throw in traders\u2019 determination to see every dip as a buying opportunity, especially after those pesky overseas sellers call it a day, and once again we see a set of broad-based early losses morph into a tech-centered drop \u2013 at least for now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By now, yesterday\u2019s FOMC meeting and subsequent press conference are in the rear-view mirror.\u00a0 As I\u2019d hoped yesterday, we got it over with.\u00a0 After some back and forth activity as traders tried to determine exactly how to interpret the FOMC statement, Chair Powell once again mollified them as he reverted to his familiar \u201cGoldilocks in a Suit\u201d 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