{"id":210081,"date":"2025-12-11T09:59:05","date_gmt":"2025-12-11T09:59:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=210081"},"modified":"2025-12-15T13:54:04","modified_gmt":"2025-12-15T13:54:04","slug":"hassets-lead-narrows-as-president-trump-begins-interviews-with-warsh-dec-10-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/hassets-lead-narrows-as-president-trump-begins-interviews-with-warsh-dec-10-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Hasset\u2019s Lead Narrows as President Trump Begins Interviews with Warsh: Dec. 10, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">News that President Trump will begin final interviews with Fed Chair candidates this week moved forecast markets on Tuesday, as it was unclear to ForecastTrader participants if he has changed his opinion across potential candidates. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett was still the heavy favorite at <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=802470036%7C20290121%7C2%7C&amp;detail=contract_details\">72%<\/a> as of Wednesday, although his odds have been trending south. Emblematic of his narrowing lead are odds that were at 80% on Dec. 9 and 90% on Dec. 3. Part of the decrease can be attributed to Hassett stating that he wouldn\u2019t bow to pressure from the White House to reduce rates and would instead rely on his own judgement. But Hassett balanced that declaration by saying that there\u2019s plenty of room to cut, effectively serving dovish remarks signaling a preference for additional accommodation that President Trump would certainly support. Meanwhile, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh\u2019s likelihood jumped from 9% yesterday to <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=802470036%7C20290121%7C1%7C&amp;detail=contract_details\">16%<\/a> on Wednesday, since the commander in chief is beginning the talks with him. Prospects amongst the others were relatively flat since there wasn\u2019t a reason to believe that their chances have improved. Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman remain below 5%, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is at 6%. There are approximately 26k contracts open that are tied to the nomination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"486\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-39-1100x486.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - Will President Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair?\" class=\"wp-image-210082 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-39-1100x486.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-39-700x310.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-39-300x133.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-39-768x340.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-39.png 1280w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/486;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"481\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-40-1100x481.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - Will President Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?\" class=\"wp-image-210083 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-40-1100x481.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-40-700x306.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-40-300x131.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-40-768x336.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-40.png 1263w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/481;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"713\" height=\"806\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-41.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - Presidential Nomination for Fed Chair.\" class=\"wp-image-210084 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-41.png 713w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-41-700x791.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-41-300x339.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 713px) 100vw, 713px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 713px; aspect-ratio: 713\/806;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Claims Could Stay Volatile<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Last week\u2019s reported plunge in US initial unemployment claims led to the lowest reading in 38 months, or since September 2022. But although consensus expectations project a 220k in Thursday\u2019s print, this time of year typically offers volatility for this specific indicator. The trend in recent periods is that filings are increasingly subdued during the holidays. The IBKR ForecastTrade platform has <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/eventtrader\/?loginType=1&amp;forwardTo=100&amp;clt=0&amp;ip2loc=OFF#\/market-details?id=626425574%7C20251211%7C200000%7CDecember%206,%202025\">contracts<\/a> with initial unemployment claim thresholds ranging from above 190k to above 240k. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"99\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-42-1100x99.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract -Will US initial Jobless Claims exceed 200,000 for the week ending December 6,2025?\" class=\"wp-image-210085 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-42-1100x99.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-42-700x63.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-42-300x27.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-42-768x69.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-42-1536x138.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-42.png 1559w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/99;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"572\" height=\"501\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-43.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - US Initial Jobless Claims.\" class=\"wp-image-210086 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-43.png 572w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-43-300x263.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 572px) 100vw, 572px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 572px; aspect-ratio: 572\/501;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>US Weekly Economic Indicator Could Accelerate<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Dallas Fed\u2019s Weekly Economic Index hasn\u2019t exceeded 2.4% since the week of October 11, but on Wednesday there was a 20% chance according to our prediction market that it\u2019ll climb above that level in tomorrow&#8217;s print. If an acceleration were to occur, that would be great news for growth trends and corporate earnings prospects, especially on the heels of a projected rate cut in the prior day that is poised to add further fuel to the fire. The recent reopening of the government also offers a short-term cyclical tailwind that could motivate \u201cYes\u201d contract buying here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"81\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-44-1100x81.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - Will Weekly Economic Index exceed 2.4 for the week of December 6, 2025?\" class=\"wp-image-210087 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-44-1100x81.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-44-700x52.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-44-300x22.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-44-768x57.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-44-1536x114.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-44-2048x152.png 2048w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/81;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 10, 2025, New York time. Time to expiration is also as of Dec. 10, 2025. .<\/em>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/en\/learn.php\">here<\/a><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Disclaimer:<br>Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>News that President Trump will begin final interviews with Fed Chair candidates this week moved forecast markets on Tuesday, as it was unclear to ForecastTrader participants if he has changed his opinion across potential candidates. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett was still the heavy favorite at 72% as of Wednesday, although his odds have been trending south.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":210088,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3164,148,7],"tags":[3396,2162],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":["post-210081","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-prediction-market","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","tag-forecast-contracts","tag-forecast-trader","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Hasset\u2019s Lead Narrows as President Trump Begins Interviews with Warsh: Dec. 10, 2025<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/210081\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Hasset\u2019s Lead Narrows as President Trump Begins Interviews with Warsh: Dec. 10, 2025\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"News that President Trump will begin final interviews with Fed Chair candidates this week moved forecast markets on Tuesday, as it was unclear to ForecastTrader participants if he has changed his opinion across potential candidates. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett was still the heavy favorite at 72% as of Wednesday, although his odds have been trending south.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/hassets-lead-narrows-as-president-trump-begins-interviews-with-warsh-dec-10-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"IBKR Campus EU\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-12-11T09:59:05+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-12-15T13:54:04+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/Federal-Reserve-Building-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1100\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"700\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jose Torres\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jose Torres\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\n\t    \"@context\": \"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\n\t    \"@graph\": [\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"Article\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/hassets-lead-narrows-as-president-trump-begins-interviews-with-warsh-dec-10-2025\\\/#article\",\n\t            \"isPartOf\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/hassets-lead-narrows-as-president-trump-begins-interviews-with-warsh-dec-10-2025\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"author\": {\n\t                \"name\": \"Jose Torres\",\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/92c2be3b6162d92fb996417221509b6e\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"headline\": \"Hasset\u2019s Lead Narrows as President Trump Begins Interviews with Warsh: Dec. 10, 2025\",\n\t            \"datePublished\": \"2025-12-11T09:59:05+00:00\",\n\t            \"dateModified\": \"2025-12-15T13:54:04+00:00\",\n\t            \"mainEntityOfPage\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/hassets-lead-narrows-as-president-trump-begins-interviews-with-warsh-dec-10-2025\\\/\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"wordCount\": 568,\n\t            \"commentCount\": 0,\n\t            \"image\": {\n\t                \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/hassets-lead-narrows-as-president-trump-begins-interviews-with-warsh-dec-10-2025\\\/#primaryimage\"\n\t            },\n\t            \"thumbnailUrl\": \"https:\\\/\\\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\\\/campus\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/3\\\/2025\\\/12\\\/Federal-Reserve-Building-1.jpg\",\n\t            \"keywords\": [\n\t                \"forecast contracts\",\n\t                \"Forecast Trader\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"articleSection\": [\n\t                \"IBKR Prediction Markets\",\n\t                \"Text Articles\",\n\t                \"Traders' Insight\"\n\t            ],\n\t            \"inLanguage\": \"en-US\",\n\t            \"potentialAction\": [\n\t                {\n\t                    \"@type\": \"CommentAction\",\n\t                    \"name\": \"Comment\",\n\t                    \"target\": [\n\t                        \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/hassets-lead-narrows-as-president-trump-begins-interviews-with-warsh-dec-10-2025\\\/#respond\"\n\t                    ]\n\t                }\n\t            ]\n\t        },\n\t        {\n\t            \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n\t            \"@id\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/hassets-lead-narrows-as-president-trump-begins-interviews-with-warsh-dec-10-2025\\\/\",\n\t            \"url\": \"https:\\\/\\\/ibkrcampus.eu\\\/campus\\\/traders-insight\\\/hassets-lead-narrows-as-president-trump-begins-interviews-with-warsh-dec-10-2025\\\/\",\n\t            \"name\": \"Hasset\u2019s Lead Narrows as President Trump Begins Interviews with Warsh: Dec. 10, 2025 - 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