{"id":210048,"date":"2025-12-09T09:38:59","date_gmt":"2025-12-09T14:38:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/chart-advisor-focus-on-price-trend-and-momentum\/"},"modified":"2025-12-14T23:31:35","modified_gmt":"2025-12-14T23:31:35","slug":"chart-advisor-focus-on-price-trend-and-momentum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/chart-advisor-focus-on-price-trend-and-momentum\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Advisor: Focus On Price, Trend, and Momentum"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Adam Koos, CFP, CMT, CEPA<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Focus On Price, Trend, and Momentum<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter.  The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein do not represent the views of CMT Association or Investopedia. Please consult a financial advisor for investment recommendations and services.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Focus On Price, Trend, and Momentum<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

To kick off Day 2 of \u201cThe 5-days of Chartmas,\u201d I want to start with a \u201cpercentage swing\u201d chart, which allows me to pick any percentage, and when the investment in question moves up (or down), it creates a zig-zag plot and marks the total gain or loss from the previous high or low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Notice back in late-2022 and early-2023, we saw pullbacks of -7.3%, -7.8%, and then -10.3% in summer\/fall of \u201923, and another -5.5% pullback in spring of \u201924.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There wasn\u2019t a single drop of -5% or more between spring of \u201924 and spring of \u201925, which is when the market faced \u201cThe Tariff Crash\u201d \u2013 what we\u2019ll call a \u201csevere market correction\u201d to the tune of -18.9%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The reason I wanted to share this chart is to bring things into perspective. The fact that the market rose with relative ease off the summer \u201924 lows until the Tariff chaos created a sense of calm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We humans suffer from a serious case of recency bias, and we got used to the market going up without even a mild pullback, so when the market started to fall, coupled with a heavy dose of \u201cdoom & gloom\u201d from your favorite political news (i.e., \u201copinion\u201d) network, the level of \u201cfreak out\u201d was amplified by the difference in market smoothness and subsequent volatility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While it was \u201cjust a -5% pullback\u201d in November, the same can be said for how people felt last month. Call it \u201cThe A.I. Bubble\u201d or pick your cortisol-spiking headline du jour\u2026 if you watched the financial news, you\u2019d think we were in the beginning of another dot-com bubble. Meanwhile, some of the riskier, more offensive sectors and stocks are hitting all-time-highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My point? Focus on price, trend, and momentum\u2026 and turn off the news.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future returns.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If I showed most 5th graders the chart above and asked them \u201cis this an uptrend or a downtrend,\u201d only the engineers would zoom in on the most recent market action this past month and try to turn it into something that looks like a major market top. The vast majority of people would say that this market is in an uptrend, and the chart below reiterates this point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We invest our clients\u2019 retirement funds in models that use an intermediate timeframe, which is six-to-nine months. Said another way, it\u2019s not short-term in nature, and it\u2019s most certainly not \u201cweekly\u201d (which is what swing traders use for their trading timeframe).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So when I analyze the markets, I\u2019m focused on the 200-day moving average (200MA) \u2013 or 40-week moving average, which is mathematically the same thing (and you can see this in the blue, shaded area below), and more aggressively, I pay attention to the 50-day moving average (which is mathematically the same as the 10-week moving average) \u2013 the blue line, below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What I see is a healthy market, in an uptrend, moving higher above a rising 50 and 200-day moving average, and focused on price and trend alone\u2026 the only negative thing I could say about this chart is that there is a lot of \u201cdaylight\u201d between the 200MA and current price of the S&P500. Typically, the more \u201cdaylight\u201d you see between the moving average and price, the higher the probability of a correction \u2013 either in price (down) or time (sideways chop) as the moving average \u201ccatches up.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, not only is this market trading decisively above its long-term moving averages\u2026 but some of the strongest markets tend to hold above their 50-day moving average, which is exactly what we\u2019re seeing below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, unless something changes, \u201cThe trend is your friend, till the end, when it bends.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026but no sooner!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future returns.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some people don\u2019t like the chart below because it implies that people should stay invested all the time, but that\u2019s not the point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sure, some professionals regurgitate this chart (and others like it) because they\u2019ve been force-fed the lie that you must always stay invested, all the time, but the reason I\u2019m sharing it is to point out that, when the market is in an uptrend, we should be invested \u2013 but there are still a bunch of reasons to sell (or not invest the cash you have sitting on the sidelines), even when things are healthy and the trend is up. I recently wrote a controversial article on this very topic last month, by the way, which you can check out by clicking here, if you\u2019re interested.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But I get it \u2013 it\u2019s tough out there\u2026 with no shortage of opinions, analysis, timeframes, and even professionals who share a complete different thesis, it\u2019s tough to figure out what to do when we\u2019re all observing the exact same market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My recommendation is this\u2026 either you:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A. Decide on a single timeframe over which to invest your hard-earned retirement money, create a set of rules that make sense for that timeframe, and then stick to your strategy over time, avoiding all other news and analysis, or<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B. Hire a professional who utilizes a strategy that aligns with your personality, opinions, and thought processes to partner up with so that you can focus your time and mind space on your family, friends, work, and hobbies\u2026 not your life savings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future returns.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you have any questions at all, feel free to email me personally, below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Otherwise, stay tuned for day three of \u201cThe 5 Days of Chartmas\u201d in tomorrow\u2019s issue, and thanks, as always, for taking the time to read!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally posted 9th December 2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Adam Koos, CFP, CMT, CEPA Focus On Price, Trend, and Momentum Investopedia is partnering with CMT Association on this newsletter.  The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice. The guest authors, which may sell research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in 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