{"id":209866,"date":"2025-12-03T10:06:16","date_gmt":"2025-12-03T10:06:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=209866"},"modified":"2025-12-03T12:56:15","modified_gmt":"2025-12-03T12:56:15","slug":"forecast-boj-to-hike-fed-to-cut-at-december-meetings-dec-2-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-boj-to-hike-fed-to-cut-at-december-meetings-dec-2-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast: BoJ to Hike, Fed to Cut at December Meetings: Dec. 2, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Increasingly fragile labor conditions have raised the odds of the US Federal Reserve reducing its key interest rate next week, but persistent inflationary forces and elevated wage pressures have officials in Tokyo looking in the opposite direction in bifurcated fashion. Indeed, one is poised to continue cruising south while the other is geared to sail north. Emblematic of the distinct paths are chances of a Fed cut rising from just 26% on Nov. 20 to <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=791099755%7C20251210%7C4%7CDecember%202025\">87%<\/a> on Tuesday, Dec. 2; however, the probability of a hike from the Bank of Japan climbed from 46% on Nov. 27 to <a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/eventtrader\/#\/market-details?id=796603920%7C20251218%7C1%7CDecember%2019,%202025\">79%<\/a>. Open contracts tied to both meetings have been popular amongst participants, totaling 310k, with decisions scheduled on the 10th and 19th of this month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1001\" height=\"510\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-6.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - Will the Fed lower the rate 25bps in December 2025?\" class=\"wp-image-209867 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-6.png 1001w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-6-700x357.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-6-300x153.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-6-768x391.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1001px) 100vw, 1001px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1001px; aspect-ratio: 1001\/510;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"515\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-7.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - Will the bank of Japan raise the rates at December 19, 2025 meeting?\" class=\"wp-image-209868 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-7.png 1000w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-7-700x361.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-7-300x155.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/12\/image-7-768x396.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1000px; aspect-ratio: 1000\/515;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Fed Trading Was Especially Active Yesterday<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Monday\u2019s trading on ForecastEx featured two block trades of 10k contracts or more related to Fed decisions, with the top trade in volume terms throughout all instruments totaling 20.32k. Furthermore, across 140 Fed trades, the number of overall contracts transacted were 61.47k on Dec. 1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Wasn\u2019t Just Fed Funds Being Traded However<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Other themes being traded heavily included the daily high temperatures across major US cities and the performance of bitcoin. Total volumes throughout all of our offerings totaled 2.78 million on Dec. 1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 2, 2025. Expiration dates are also as of Dec. 2, 2025, New York time.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/en\/learn.php\">here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Disclaimer:<br>Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Increasingly fragile labor conditions have raised the odds of the US Federal Reserve reducing its key interest rate next week, but persistent inflationary forces and elevated wage pressures have officials in Tokyo looking in the opposite direction in bifurcated fashion. Indeed, one is poised to continue cruising south while the other is geared to sail north.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":209869,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3164,148,7],"tags":[3396,2162],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":{"0":"post-209866","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forecast-trader","8":"category-text-articles","9":"category-traders-insight","10":"tag-forecast-contracts","11":"tag-forecast-trader","12":"contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forecast: BoJ to Hike, Fed to Cut at December Meetings: Dec. 2, 2025<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/209866\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Forecast: BoJ to Hike, Fed to Cut at December Meetings: Dec. 2, 2025\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Increasingly fragile labor conditions have raised the odds of the US Federal Reserve reducing its key interest rate next week, but persistent inflationary forces and elevated wage pressures have officials in Tokyo looking in the opposite direction in bifurcated fashion. 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