{"id":209788,"date":"2025-11-27T08:47:18","date_gmt":"2025-11-27T08:47:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=209788"},"modified":"2025-12-15T13:58:20","modified_gmt":"2025-12-15T13:58:20","slug":"above-the-noise-the-k-pop-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/above-the-noise-the-k-pop-economy\/","title":{"rendered":"Above the Noise: The K-pop economy"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Originally Posted 26 November 2025 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/k-economy-ai-selloff-tech.html\">Above the Noise: The K-pop economy<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/our-people\/brian-levitt.html\"><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/content\/dam\/invesco\/na\/en\/images\/insights\/ARTCL-HRO-k-economy-ai-selloff-tech.jpg\" alt=\"K-pop fan raise bomb light stick lamp at a K-pop concert.\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" class=\"lazyload\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-takeaways\">Key takeaways<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-k-pop\">K-pop?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>We\u2019re in a K-shaped economy, with higher-income and lower-income Americans on divergent paths.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-bubble-talk\">Bubble talk<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The comparison between the current market advance and the one ahead of the tech bubble is hyperbole, in my view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-santa-claus\">Santa Claus<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Will the market be naughty or nice between Thanksgiving and New Year\u2019s Eve? I\u2019m going with nice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Naming things is hard. I\u2019ve wrestled with naming my children and my year-ahead outlooks, for example. You can imagine my surprise when K-pop came to mind as the perfect name for Invesco\u2019s soon-to-come 2026 outlook.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Why? Because it\u2019s a K-shaped economy where the wealthiest Americans appear to be enjoying strong growth while lower-income households struggle. The pop could be a nod to the so-called AI bubble (which we\u2019ll discuss in more detail later in this column), though I saw it more as markets popping higher in 2026\u2019s K-shaped environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Of course, if you must explain it, you cannot use it. And as my marketing partners reminded me, it wasn\u2019t exactly a win for search engine optimization anyway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Still, I think it\u2019s too good not to use somewhere (if I say so myself). Plus, I\u2019m going to keep trying to appeal to the younger generation. The movie K-Pop Demon Hunters racked up 325 million views in 90 days.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/k-economy-ai-selloff-tech.html#1\">1<\/a><\/sup> Surely a few of those viewers read Above the Noise. And like the Demon Hunters, I\u2019ll keep working to protect investors from any dangers, albeit without singing. The people don\u2019t want to hear it, and the compliance department can\u2019t have me singing, \u201cwe\u2019re goin\u2019 up, up, up.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-charted-territory\">Charted territory<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>To assess the recent sell-off in the artificial intelligence (AI) trade, I\u2019m using Occam&#8217;s Razor, which suggests that the simplest explanation is usually the easiest one. The simplest explanation: Market volatility and downturns rarely emerge out of nowhere. They have tended to result from uncertainty about monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For insight, I charted the level of the Goldman Sachs Non-Profitable Tech Basket index, and a few observations stand out.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/k-economy-ai-selloff-tech.html#2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The basket soared in early 2020 after the Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered interest rates to zero.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It collapsed in late 2021 when it became clear that the Fed needed to raise rates significantly to combat inflation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It soared again following the April 2 \u201cLiberation Day\u201d as investors increased expectations for rate cuts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It peaked in mid-October when Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that there are \u201cstrongly differing views\u201d among Fed officials on how to move forward.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>For all the bubble talk, the rally in non-profitable tech since early April pales in comparison to the surge at the start of this decade.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Occam&#8217;s Razor would suggest that lower borrowing costs are essential for money-losing tech firms that need to finance operations and whose valuations depend on profits that may not materialize for years. In short, watch the Fed!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Interest rate actions \u2014 and expectations \u2014 have driven money-losing tech firms<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"759\" height=\"345\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/image-48.png\" alt=\"Interest rate actions \u2014 and expectations \u2014 have driven money-losing tech firms\" class=\"wp-image-209792 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/image-48.png 759w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/image-48-700x318.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/image-48-300x136.png 300w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 759px) 100vw, 759px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 759px; aspect-ratio: 759\/345;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Past performance does not guarantee future results. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Goldman Sachs Non-Profitable Tech Basket Index<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sources: Goldman Sachs, Bloomberg L.P., Nov. 17, 2025. The Goldman Sachs Non-Profitable Tech Basket Index consists of non-profitable US-listed companies in innovative industries. Technology is defined quite broadly to include new economy companies across Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) industry groupings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-it-may-be-confirmation-bias-but\"><strong>It may be confirmation bias, but\u2026<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2026the comparison between the current market advance and the one ahead of the 1995 tech bubble is hyperbole. Investors can point to some parallels, including concerns about circular financing and overinvestment, but the magnitude of the advance in the Nasdaq-100 Index so far is nothing like the experience from 1995 to 2000. The Nasdaq-100 Index climbed 1,000% from 1994 to 1999. It has climbed 200% since ChatGPT launched on November 30, 2022.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/k-economy-ai-selloff-tech.html#3\">3<\/a><\/sup> While that&#8217;s a significant return, it&#8217;s not in the same vicinity yet of the late 1990&#8217;s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-it-was-said\"><strong>It was said<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cMy estimation of value in securities is not now, and has not been for some time, in sync with the markets.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2013 Michael Burry, founder, Scion Asset Management<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Michael Burry\u2019s recent comments on an AI bubble were shared in his letter announcing the closure of Scion Asset Management earlier this month. They underscore his belief that markets are detached from fundamentals. Given his prescient call on the US housing market in 2008, investors pay attention when he speaks. Or as Jonathan Levin at Bloomberg notes, \u201cwe\u2019re obsessed with contrarian investors that make concentrated hero bets on macro-outcomes,\u201d which amplifies the fear his remarks generate. Personally, I\u2019m old enough to remember Burry\u2019s warnings towards the end of the 2022 correction that the bottom hadn\u2019t been reached, as well as his 2023 call to sell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Burry\u2019s decision to close his fund and suggest that \u201cthe only winning move is not to play\u201d adds to the anxiety. Yet perspective is important. Valuations are elevated but roughly half of 1999 levels,<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/k-economy-ai-selloff-tech.html#4\">4<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;and tech sector capital expenditures as a share of free cash flow, currently 38%, are in line with the 35-year average.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/k-economy-ai-selloff-tech.html#5\">5<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;That\u2019s a stark contrast to the late 1990s, when many companies struggled to finance growth sustainably.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And while Burry may choose to sit out, many of us still need to play, because we believe disciplined participation, not avoidance, is how long-term goals are achieved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-since-you-asked-part-1\"><strong>Since you asked (part 1)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Q: Are you expecting a Santa Claus rally?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A: First, I\u2019ll admit I had to look up the actual definition of Santa Claus rally. It refers to the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January. Historically, the stock market has been positive more than 75% of the time during this period,<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/k-economy-ai-selloff-tech.html#6\">6<\/a>&nbsp;<\/sup>which doesn\u2019t sound all that remarkable, given markets tend to rise more often than they fall. What is notable, however, is that the average gain of about 1.3% over those seven days is meaningfully higher than the 0.2% average return over a typical seven-day stretch.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/k-economy-ai-selloff-tech.html#7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Candidly, I initially assumed that the question was about the period between Thanksgiving and year-end. Will the market be naughty or nice? I\u2019m going with nice. Why? As I\u2019ve been saying, yields are low,<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/k-economy-ai-selloff-tech.html#8\">8<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;oil prices are low,<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/k-economy-ai-selloff-tech.html#9\">9<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp;the economy appears resilient,<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/k-economy-ai-selloff-tech.html#10\">10<\/a><\/sup> inflation expectations are contained,<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/k-economy-ai-selloff-tech.html#11\">11<\/a><\/sup> and the Fed is in an easing cycle. All of that should be supportive of risk assets, regardless of what happens during the seven-day Santa Claus rally window.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-since-you-asked-part-2\"><strong>Since you asked (part 2)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Q: How are you able to assess the state of the economy during the shutdown without the US government data?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A: It\u2019s akin to driving in fog. You\u2019ll likely reach your destination, but you need to adjust your line of vision and concentrate harder. To list a few: For the labor market, I\u2019ve relied on the ADP National Employment Report, which has slowed to a six-month average of just 52,000 monthly private-sector jobs.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/k-economy-ai-selloff-tech.html#12\">12<\/a><\/sup> For the consumer, I\u2019ve been tracking credit card spending data, which continued to show resilience in US household demand.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/k-economy-ai-selloff-tech.html#13\">13<\/a><\/sup>&nbsp; For inflation, I monitor bond market expectations, and those remain contained.<sup><a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/k-economy-ai-selloff-tech.html#14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That said, I\u2019m happy the government has reopened and, like any driver, I\u2019m looking forward to the fog lifting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-phone-a-friend\"><strong>Phone a friend<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m often asked what everyone will do for a living as AI reaches its full potential. When the tough questions emerge, I usually phone friends inside Invesco. This month, I had the opportunity to sit down with Zack Kass, a global AI advisor and former Head of Go-to-Market at OpenAI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Among my key takeaways from our discussion:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Kass maintains that AI will force us to rediscover what it means to be human. He says we\u2019re entering a future of what he calls \u201cunmetered intelligence,\u201d where AI becomes as ubiquitous and inexpensive as electricity, giving everyone access to PhD-level assistance on demand. That doesn\u2019t eliminate work; it changes it.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The roles that can potentially thrive will be those rooted in deeply human qualities, including creativity, empathy, humor, adaptability, and critical thinking, according to Kass. Machines can handle routine cognitive tasks, but they can\u2019t replicate judgment, emotional intelligence, or values. He believes education will prioritize these irreplaceable traits, and society will restructure around human-centric skills. In short, AI won\u2019t make us obsolete, but make being human more valuable than ever, according to Kass.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Our full conversation will soon be featured on a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.invesco.com\/us\/en\/insights\/topic\/market-and-economic-insights\/greater-possibilities-podcast.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Greater Possibilities podcast<\/a>. Subscribe to get this conversation and other episodes added to your podcast queue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-almost-famous\"><strong>Almost famous<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>I spent a few minutes with the restaurateur Stephen Starr in the CNBC green room and thoroughly enjoyed him goofing on me, saying the makeup artist hadn\u2019t managed to make me look any better. Guilty as charged. I asked him the secret to building a restaurant empire, and he said it\u2019s persistence and always striving to make things better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If that wasn\u2019t enough, I was later asked to appear on a financial webinar with Tim Tebow, the Heisman Trophy\u2013winning quarterback. Tebow spoke about the challenges of coming into a lot of money quickly and emphasized the importance of having a great team with a shared vision. He urged investors to not only focus on the return on investment but also to consider the return on the impact of it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any rumors that I asked Starr for a preferred table at Babbo or for Tebow to get a relative into the University of Florida are unfounded!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Originally Posted 26 November 2025 &#8211; Above the Noise: The K-pop economy Key takeaways K-pop? We\u2019re in a K-shaped economy, with higher-income and lower-income Americans on divergent paths. Bubble talk The comparison between the current market advance and the one ahead of the tech bubble is hyperbole, in my view. Santa Claus Will the market [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":177,"featured_media":209797,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[146,12,153,148,7],"tags":[362,291,314,316],"contributors-categories":[427],"class_list":{"0":"post-209788","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-securities","9":"category-stocks","10":"category-text-articles","11":"category-traders-insight","12":"tag-economic-outlook","13":"tag-macro","14":"tag-market-outlook","15":"tag-stocks","16":"contributors-categories-invesco-us"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Above the Noise: The K-pop economy | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"K-pop?We\u2019re in a K-shaped economy, with higher-income and lower-income Americans on divergent paths.Bubble talkThe comparison between the current...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/209788\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Above the Noise: The K-pop economy\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"K-pop?We\u2019re in a K-shaped economy, with higher-income and lower-income Americans on divergent paths.Bubble talkThe comparison between the current market advance and the one ahead of the tech bubble is hyperbole, in my view.Santa ClausWill the market be naughty or nice between Thanksgiving and New Year\u2019s Eve? 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