{"id":209771,"date":"2025-11-25T10:15:01","date_gmt":"2025-11-25T15:15:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/ppi-producer-inflation-september-retail-sales-economic-data-today\/"},"modified":"2025-11-27T14:46:34","modified_gmt":"2025-11-27T14:46:34","slug":"ppi-producer-inflation-september-retail-sales-economic-data-today","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/ppi-producer-inflation-september-retail-sales-economic-data-today\/","title":{"rendered":"Producer Inflation Stays Hot, But Consumer Pullback Adds To Fed Cut Debate"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Producer inflation jumped back into positive territory in September due to a robust increase in energy prices, while U.S. consumers showed signs of spending fatigue as retail sales growth came in weaker than expected, bolstering expectations for a Fed interest-rate cut next month.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.3% month-over-month, matching economists’ expectations and reversing August’s 0.1% decline, according to a delayed release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Year-over-year, overall producer inflation held steady at 2.7%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Energy prices were the primary driver of the acceleration in producer costs, with gasoline prices soaring 11.8% month over month. Final demand goods surged 0.9%, the largest increase since February 2024. Food prices also jumped 1.1%, while goods excluding food and energy edged up just 0.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Core PPI, which strips out food, energy, and trade services, rose a tepid 0.1% on the month, missing expectations of 0.2%. On a yearly basis, it remained elevated at 2.9%, above the consensus of 2.7%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Services inflation, meanwhile, remained flat in September. A 4% jump in airline ticket prices and gains in transportation services were offset by a 3.5% drop in machinery and equipment wholesaling margins and declines in retail margins for autos, apparel and financial services.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Consumer Spending Shows Signs of Cooling<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the retail front, Americans pulled back more than expected. Retail sales rose 0.2% in September, down from August’s 0.6% and below the 0.4% expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Excluding autos, sales increased 0.3%, decelerating from August\u2019s 0.6% rise and below forecasts of 0.4%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The retail control group\u2014which feeds into GDP calculations\u2014declined by 0.1%, missing expectations of a 0.3% gain and marking its first contraction since April.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Categories showing the strongest gains included miscellaneous store retailers, up 2.9%, and gasoline stations, up 2.0%. Weakness came from clothing accessory stores and nonstore retailers, both down 0.7% on the month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the monthly slowdown, annual retail sales growth remained strong at 4.3%, though that’s a slowdown from August’s 5% pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market Reactions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Tuesday\u2019s economic data failed to shift interest-rate expectations meaningfully, with futures markets still pricing in an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s Dec. 10 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That probability has risen sharply in recent days, supported by increasingly dovish commentary from Fed officials.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the equities front, Monday delivered the strongest session for tech stocks in over six months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. index futures were flat in the premarket trading on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted on November 25. 2025 – Producer Inflation Stays Hot, But Consumer Pullback Adds To Fed Cut Debate<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Producer inflation jumped back into positive territory in September due to a robust increase in energy prices, while U.S. consumers showed signs of spending fatigue as retail sales growth came in weaker than expected, bolstering expectations for a Fed\u00a0interest-rate cut next 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