{"id":209693,"date":"2025-11-24T10:45:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-24T15:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/weekly-market-recap-week-of-november-24-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-11-27T09:20:42","modified_gmt":"2025-11-27T09:20:42","slug":"weekly-market-recap-week-of-november-24-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-week-of-november-24-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: Week of November 24, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>119k jobs were added in September<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Wages grew 0.2% m\/m (3.8% y\/y) in September<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Consumer confidence<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>3Q25 GDP (2nd estimate)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>PCE<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Last week marked the first full week since the government reopened, allowing for the release of old and new economic data. The latest figures underscored an important trend: Slack in the labor market is on the rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It is helpful to examine three key indicators of labor market slack\u2014the unemployment rate, jobs hard to get minus jobs plentiful and continuing claims\u2014as shown in this week\u2019s chart. In September, although we just received the data this past Thursday, the unemployment rate rose 12bps from 4.32% to 4.44%, a four-year high. Turning to the Conference Board\u2019s October Consumer Survey, while 18.4% of respondents saw jobs as \u201chard to get\u201d compared to 27.8% who saw them as \u201cplentiful,\u201d the gap was the second smallest since March 2021. Meanwhile, although initial unemployment claims remain relatively stable in the most recent week, continuing claims for unemployment benefits jumped to 1,974,000 for the week ending November 8\u2014a new cycle high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While FOMC member commentary had grown more hawkish in recent weeks, dovish comments from NY Fed President Williams caused market expectations for a December cut to jump back to 65%, helping equities bounce higher on Friday, following losses in recent weeks. However, history suggests that when the Fed cuts rates in response to economic weakness, it does little to help the economy or bolster the stock market. Therefore, investors should pay close attention to growing labor market slack as a potential threat to both the economic expansion and the very strong stock market gains of recent years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1026\" height=\"402\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-24-110506.png\" alt=\"Labor market slack has been building for quite some time\" class=\"wp-image-209694 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-24-110506.png 1026w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-24-110506-700x274.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-24-110506-300x118.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-24-110506-768x301.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1026px) 100vw, 1026px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1026px; aspect-ratio: 1026\/402;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Chart of the Week: BLS, Conference Board, U.S. Department of Labor,<br>J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *Indices show z-scores of the<br>following measures of labor market slack: Unemployment rate, jobs<br>hard to get minus jobs plentiful, and continuing unemployment<br>insurance claims.<br>Thought of the week: BLS, Conference Board, U.S. Department of<br>Labor, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posted November 24, 2025 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Copyright 2025 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., November 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of November 24, 2025 or as of most recently available.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week&#8217;s chart highlights rising labor market slack, with unemployment and continuing claims both hitting new highs.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":209694,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[146,147,8,12,148,7],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[429],"class_list":{"0":"post-209693","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly Market Recap: Week of November 24, 2025<\/title>\n<meta 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