{"id":209627,"date":"2025-11-21T09:40:38","date_gmt":"2025-11-21T09:40:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=209627"},"modified":"2025-11-24T10:49:59","modified_gmt":"2025-11-24T10:49:59","slug":"forecast-september-jobs-report-marginally-raises-odds-of-a-december-cut-nov-20-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/forecast-september-jobs-report-marginally-raises-odds-of-a-december-cut-nov-20-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast: September Jobs Report Marginally Raises Odds of a December Cut: Nov. 20, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Odds of a December rate cut by the US Federal Reserve increased only marginally after Thursday\u2019s September Jobs Report included the highest unemployment figure in 47 months. Recently, hawkish voices at the Fed have outnumbered the dovish ones, as the central bank appears increasingly unlikely to ease next month in light of 3% inflation and a level of joblessness that is still subdued, although it is rising. Indeed, the 25-basis point reduction \u201cYes\u201d trade was priced as low as $0.25 after the report before increasing to $0.37 and then falling to $0.33 as of press time. Trading has been active, as approximately 95k contracts are open as it relates to the last monetary policy decision of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"487\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/image-33-1100x487.png\" alt=\"Forecast Contract - Will the Fed lower the rate 25bps in December 2025? \" class=\"wp-image-209628 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/image-33-1100x487.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/image-33-700x310.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/image-33-300x133.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/image-33-768x340.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/image-33.png 1476w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/487;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source for images: ForecastEx<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Nov. 20, 2025.<\/em>&nbsp;<em>Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight Yes\u201d and \u201cNo\u201d answers throughout different levels.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders\u2019 Academy video <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/en\/learn.php\">here<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Futures, event contracts and forecast contracts are not suitable for all investors. Before trading these products, please read the&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.ie\/Universal\/servlet\/Registration_v2.formSampleView?formdb=4744\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Forecast Contract Risk Disclosure<\/a>. Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers Group. Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Odds of a December rate cut by the US Federal Reserve increased only marginally after Thursday\u2019s September Jobs Report included the highest unemployment figure in 47 months. Recently, hawkish voices at the Fed have outnumbered the dovish ones, as the central bank appears increasingly unlikely to ease next month in light of 3% inflation<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":903,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3164,7],"tags":[3396,2162],"contributors-categories":[370],"class_list":["post-209627","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","category-prediction-market","category-traders-insight","tag-forecast-contracts","tag-forecast-trader","contributors-categories-ibkr-macroeconomics"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.0) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forecast: September Jobs Report Marginally Raises Odds of a December Cut: Nov. 20, 2025<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/209627\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Forecast: September Jobs Report Marginally Raises Odds of a December Cut: Nov. 20, 2025\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Odds of a December rate cut by the US Federal Reserve increased only marginally after Thursday\u2019s September Jobs Report included the highest unemployment figure in 47 months. 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