{"id":209476,"date":"2025-11-17T09:12:06","date_gmt":"2025-11-17T09:12:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=209476"},"modified":"2025-11-18T15:31:36","modified_gmt":"2025-11-18T15:31:36","slug":"the-quiet-storm-in-uk-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/region\/europe-middle-east-africa\/the-quiet-storm-in-uk-markets\/","title":{"rendered":"The quiet storm in UK markets"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Originally Posted 14 November 2025 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ssga.com\/ie\/en_gb\/institutional\/insights\/monthly-cash-review-gbp\">The quiet storm in UK markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bank of England to hold rates on 6 November despite soft data; markets eye cuts in February or December. Yields flatten, QT tweaks, and repo uptake surge as UK budget looms.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By the time you read this, the Bank of England\u2019s 6 November meeting will be history\u2014and hopefully not the kind of history for all the wrong reasons. Leading up to the decision, markets went from \u201cno chance\u201d to \u201cmaybe, just maybe\u201d on a rate cut, jumping from 5% to 30% odds after a trifecta of soft data: inflation cooled to 3.8%, unemployment crept up to 4.8%, and wage growth lost its swagger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then came <strong>24 October\u2019s retail sales surprise<\/strong>. Market experts, ever the optimists, suggested the economy was muddling through Q4\u2014translation: not sinking, not soaring, just \u2026 muddling. Their view? A cut in February or December is more likely than November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>At the time of this writing<\/strong>, markets were pricing in two cuts by Q2 2026, up from one lonely cut two weeks ago. The rate floor slid to 3.38% from 3.62%, with some bold souls calling for 3% next year. Clearly, hope springs eternal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On yields, the sterling money market curve decided to flatten like a pancake\u2014losing 15 bp in the 6\u201312-month segment, now hovering near 4.05%. Our strategy\u2014risk-off ahead of the UK budget (because who doesn\u2019t love a \u00a330 billion hole to fill?).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The LVNAV strategies stayed short at 25\u201330 days, rebuilding liquidity after some outflows, while sovereign strategies clung to overnight reverse repo paying up to 4.05%, and beating bills by a modest 5\u201310 bp.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Headline drama had longer maturity gilt yields tumbling, thanks to softer data, lower US yields, and BoE\u2019s QT makeover\u2014less selling, shorter maturities, and a little love for reserves. Meanwhile, repo rates stretched higher with overnight at 4.05%, 8 bp above SONIA. The BoE\u2019s short-term repo facility saw \u00a384 billion uptake. Will quantitative easing calm the frenzy? Stay tuned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bank of England to hold rates on 6 November despite soft data; markets eye cuts in February or December. Yields flatten, QT tweaks, and repo uptake surge as UK budget looms.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[807,152,14,15,808,146,148,7],"tags":[310,718,1937,3761,291],"contributors-categories":[462],"class_list":{"0":"post-209476","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-corporate-bonds","7":"category-europe-middle-east-africa","8":"category-fixed-income","9":"category-forex","10":"category-government-bonds","11":"category-macro","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-bonds","15":"tag-fixed-income","16":"tag-forex","17":"tag-gbp","18":"tag-macro","19":"contributors-categories-state-street-global-advisors"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The quiet storm in UK markets | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bank of England to hold rates on 6 November despite soft data; markets eye cuts in February or December. Yields flatten, QT tweaks, and repo uptake...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/209476\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The quiet storm in UK markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bank of England to hold rates on 6 November despite soft data; markets eye cuts in February or December. 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