{"id":209396,"date":"2025-11-10T10:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-10T15:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/weekly-market-recap-week-of-november-10-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-11-11T17:26:49","modified_gmt":"2025-11-11T17:26:49","slug":"weekly-market-recap-week-of-november-10-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-week-of-november-10-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: Week of November 10, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>ADP private payrolls rose by 42k<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Consumer sentiment fell to 50.3 in November<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>ISM mfg.\/ svcs. PMIs came in at 48.7 and 52.4, respectively<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Initial and continuing jobless claims<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The federal government shutdown has now become the longest in history, resulting in a second consecutive missed jobs report from the BLS. In its absence, we can lean on alternative data sources to gauge the health of the labor market. This month, these sources have provided mixed signals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>ADP reported a 42k gain in private payroll jobs in October after a 32k decline the month prior. Both the ISM Services and Manufacturing employment indices improved, with the pace of contraction slowing in both sectors, while state level initial jobless claims for the month ending in the October survey week actually fell from September. Other indicators, however, suggest caution is warranted. Announced seasonal hiring plans, according to Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas, are tracking well below normal levels, while layoff announcements over the past two months have reached their highest levels, for September\/October combined, since 2008. New job openings, reported by Indeed, have continued to fall steadily while consumer perceptions of labor market conditions were at their second lowest level in over four years in October according to the Conference Board. All of this aligns with the increase in the real-time unemployment rate forecast from the Chicago Fed to 4.4% in October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Considering these and other indicators, our in-house model estimates that 52k jobs were added in September but that 35k jobs were lost in October. Notably, this forecast assumes a 120k decline in federal government employment in October as most of the 150k+ employees who took a buyout this spring fell off federal payrolls. While the Federal Reserve is also lacking official data on jobs, if their reading of labor market weakness aligns with ours, a further rate cut in December remains in the cards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1004\" height=\"400\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-10-102155.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-209398 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-10-102155.png 1004w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-10-102155-700x279.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-10-102155-300x120.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/11\/Screenshot-2025-11-10-102155-768x306.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1004px) 100vw, 1004px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1004px; aspect-ratio: 1004\/400;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Chart of the Week: Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, J.P. Morgan<br>Asset Management. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.<br>Thought of the week: Source: ADP, Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas,<br>Chicago Fed, Conference Board, Indeed, ISM, J.P. Morgan Asset<br>Management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Past performance is not indicative of future results. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week&#8217;s chart highlights mixed labor market signals, with job gains in September but losses and rising unemployment in October.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":209397,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[146,147,8,12,148,7],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[429],"class_list":{"0":"post-209396","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly Market Recap: Week of November 10, 2025<\/title>\n<meta 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