{"id":208671,"date":"2025-10-10T13:07:30","date_gmt":"2025-10-10T17:07:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/tariff-rug-pull\/"},"modified":"2025-10-13T10:41:14","modified_gmt":"2025-10-13T10:41:14","slug":"tariff-rug-pull","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/tariff-rug-pull\/","title":{"rendered":"Tariff Rug Pull"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Things got ugly quickly this morning.&nbsp; I had just finished taping an IBKR podcast<a id=\"_ednref1\" href=\"#_edn1\">[i]<\/a> where our guest echoed my ongoing theme of \u201cdon\u2019t fight the tape, but insure against it,\u201d when a few minutes later the President issued a <a href=\"https:\/\/truthsocial.com\/@realDonaldTrump\/posts\/115350455734003647\">post on Truth Social<\/a> that contemplated \u201ca massive increase of Tariffs on Chinese products.\u201d&nbsp; That was clearly not something traders wanted to hear!&nbsp; Stocks and yields plunged, the VIX soared, and gold rebounded.&nbsp; The reactions may say as much about recent market complacency as they do about the policy ramifications.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) closes at the levels that are prevailing while I type this, it would be the first move of greater than 1% since August 22<sup>nd<\/sup> and the first down move beyond -1% since August 1<sup>st<\/sup>.&nbsp; We\u2019d become quite accustomed to relatively quiescent markets with an upward bias, so it was quite shocking to see stocks in a quick freefall.&nbsp; That is why we saw an immense reaction in VIX. &nbsp;Traders were clearly scrambling for protection during the downdraft that gave back more than two weeks of SPX gains and pushed the Cboe Volatility Index to levels not seen in over two months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-spx-2-weeks-10-minute-candles\"><strong><em>SPX, 2 Weeks, 10-Minute Candles<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"708\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/image-17-1100x708.png\" alt=\"SPX, 2 Weeks, 10-Minute Candles\" class=\"wp-image-208673 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/10\/image-17-1100x708.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/10\/image-17-700x451.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/10\/image-17-300x193.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/10\/image-17-768x495.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/10\/image-17.png 1534w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/708;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em> <strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-vix-3-months-daily-candles\"><strong><em>VIX, 3-Months, Daily Candles<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"698\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/10\/image-18-1100x698.png\" alt=\"VIX, 3-Months, Daily Candles\" class=\"wp-image-208674 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/10\/image-18-1100x698.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/10\/image-18-700x444.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/10\/image-18-300x190.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/10\/image-18-768x487.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/10\/image-18-1536x975.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/10\/image-18.png 1546w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/698;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em> &#8211; <strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Investors need periodic reminders that risk is always present, even when it is obscured by consistent returns.&nbsp; Today is one.&nbsp; I was asked this morning about why stocks were originally trading higher, and my flippant answer was, \u201cbecause it\u2019s a business day.\u201d&nbsp; As is now somewhat typical, I woke up to flattish pre-market futures that edged up throughout the morning before giving way to a larger advance once the opening bell rang.&nbsp; That\u2019s not a criticism of trader behavior \u2013 skilled traders are good at spotting patterns, and this was an obvious one.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That said, it does feel (so far) like a different mindset has crept into a piece of the market\u2019s psyche.&nbsp; I\u2019ve had several conversations with experienced institutional investors, and a not insignificant percentage of them have expressed increasing concerns about the sustainability of the current AI-driven rally.&nbsp; Professional considerations have kept them invested in the relatively small cadre of tech stocks that have driven market performance, but they don\u2019t seem as happy about it recently.&nbsp; They too have been raising questions about the latest onrush of capital intensive, often circular deals, that could imply overbuilding or capital misallocation.&nbsp; But few investors showed a willingness to risk the potential underperformance that could result from exiting these investments too quickly.&nbsp; Hence the abrupt reaction when a piece of difficult news reared its head.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We will need to see whether and how the markets rebound from today\u2019s shock.\u00a0We had a fleeting attempt at a bounce shortly after SPX sold off about -1.5%, but as I type this, it was unsuccessful.\u00a0 It is entirely possible that today\u2019s drop was a one day reset that would once again reward dip buyers.\u00a0 It is also possible that we get a longer reset.\u00a0 I have a nagging feeling that we are closer to the end of the game than the beginning.\u00a0 In baseball terms, it seems more like we are in the 8<sup>th<\/sup> or 9<sup>th<\/sup> inning, and hopefully not in extra innings with a runner on second base.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref1\" id=\"_edn1\">[i]<\/a> Scheduled for release Monday morning<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Things got ugly quickly this morning.\u00a0 I had just finished taping an IBKR podcast where our guest echoed my ongoing theme of \u201cdon\u2019t fight the tape, but insure against it,\u201d when a few minutes later the President issued a post on Truth Social that contemplated \u201ca massive increase of Tariffs on Chinese products.\u201d\u00a0 That was clearly not something traders wanted to hear!\u00a0 Stocks and yields plunged, the VIX soared, and gold rebounded.\u00a0 The reactions may say as much about recent market complacency as they do about the policy ramifications.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":208672,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[145,146,147,8,12,148,7],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[149],"class_list":{"0":"post-208671","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Tariff Rug Pull | Traders&#039; Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/208671\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Tariff Rug Pull\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Things got ugly quickly this morning.\u00a0 I had just finished taping an IBKR podcast where our guest echoed my ongoing theme of \u201cdon\u2019t fight the tape, but insure against it,\u201d when a few minutes later the President issued a post on Truth Social that contemplated \u201ca massive increase of Tariffs on Chinese products.\u201d\u00a0 That was clearly not something traders wanted to hear!\u00a0 Stocks and yields plunged, the VIX soared, and gold rebounded.\u00a0 The reactions may say as much about recent market complacency 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