{"id":207956,"date":"2025-09-22T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-22T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/weekly-market-recap-week-of-september-22-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-09-23T10:43:35","modified_gmt":"2025-09-23T10:43:35","slug":"weekly-market-recap-week-of-september-22-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/weekly-market-recap-week-of-september-22-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Weekly Market Recap: Week of September 22, 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-in-review\">The week in review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Core retail sales increased 0.7% m\/m vs. 0.4% exp.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Import price index rose 0.3% m\/m<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Initial claims fell to 231K<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-week-ahead\">The week ahead<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Building permits<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>PCE<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Consumer sentiment<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-thought-of-the-week\">Thought of the Week<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The last two weeks were big ones for monetary policy, with five major central banks announcing their interest rate decisions and signaling the direction of travel. The Fed and Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bps, while the European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan stayed on hold. For investors, these moves matter not just for their implications for the bond market but also for how diverging policy paths affect currencies, and, in turn, shape global portfolio returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Year-to-date, U.S. and European equities have posted nearly identical gains in local currency terms, but the picture looks wildly different when measured in dollar terms, with Europe up more than twice as much as the U.S., helped by a roughly 10% decline in the greenback. While several factors have weighed on the dollar index, its moves have closely followed shifts in the 2Y interest rate differential, as shown in this week\u2019s chart. In fact, over a third of the dollar\u2019s decline this year can be attributed to the narrowing in this spread. That makes sense because the 2Y tends to reflect where policy is headed, not just where it is today, in turn dictating the relative demand for the currency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Looking ahead, as the chart\u2019s dashed line shows, the swaps market suggests the 2Y differential will compress further, as the Fed is expected to continue easing while many peers have already reached close to their neutral. Moreover, with the U.S. administration\u2019s explicit preference for a weaker dollar, the outlook for further softness gains traction. For investors, this, along with improving fundamentals overseas, reinforces the already strong case for international diversification, particularly as portfolios remain heavily tilted toward the U.S.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1011\" height=\"403\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-22-095337.png\" alt=\"Dollar declines as rate differential narrows\" class=\"wp-image-207957 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-22-095337.png 1011w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-22-095337-700x279.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-22-095337-300x120.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/09\/Screenshot-2025-09-22-095337-768x306.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1011px) 100vw, 1011px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1011px; aspect-ratio: 1011\/403;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Chart of the Week: Source: BIS, Bloomberg, FactSet, J.P. Morgan<br>Asset Management. *Interest rate differential is the difference<br>between the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield and a basket of the 2-year<br>yields of each major trading partner (Australia, Canada, eurozone,<br>Japan, Sweden, Switzerland and UK). Weights in the basket are<br>calculated using the 2-year average of total government bonds<br>outstanding in each region. Data show history from Jan. 1, 2022 to<br>Sep. 19, 2025, with the forward path through Sep. 19, 2026 based on 1-<br>year-ahead, swap-implied 2Y sovereign yields.<br>Thought of the week: Source: BIS, Bloomberg, FactSet, J.P. Morgan<br>Asset Management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u2014<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted September 22, 2025 \u2013\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/am.jpmorgan.com\/us\/en\/asset-management\/adv\/insights\/market-insights\/market-updates\/weekly-market-recap\/\">Weekly Market Recap<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Past performance does not guarantee future results.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Diversification does not guarantee investment returns and does not eliminate the risk of loss.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Opinions and estimates offered constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice, as are statements of financial market trends, which are based on current market conditions. We believe the information provided here is reliable, but do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The views and strategies described may not be appropriate for all investors. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice. References to future returns are not promises or even estimates of actual returns a client portfolio may achieve. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Market Insights program provides comprehensive data and commentary on global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients understand the markets and support investment decision-making, the program explores the implications of current economic data and changing market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The J.P. Morgan Asset Management Market Insights and Portfolio Insights programs, as non-independent research, have not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, nor are they subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This document is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment product, strategy, plan feature<br>or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from J.P. Morgan Asset Management or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any of the transactions mentioned herein. Any examples used are generic, hypothetical and for illustration purposes only. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any securities or products. In addition, users should make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial professional, if any investment mentioned herein is believed to be appropriate to their personal goals. Investors should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Any forecasts, figures, opinions or investment techniques and strategies set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. All information presented herein is considered to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. It should be noted that investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation agreements and investors may not get back the full amount invested. Both past performance and yields are not reliable indicators of current and future results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the brand for the asset management business of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and its affiliates worldwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Telephone calls and electronic communications may be monitored and\/or recorded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Personal data will be collected, stored and processed by J.P. Morgan Asset Management in accordance with our privacy policies at https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/privacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This communication is issued in the United States, by J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc. or J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc., both regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you are a person with a disability and need additional support in viewing the material, please call us at 1-800-343-1113 for assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Copyright 2025 JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. All rights reserved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><sup>\u00a9<\/sup>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., August 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Unless otherwise stated, all data is as of September 22, 2025 or as of most recently available.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This week&#8217;s chart highlights how the narrowing 2-year rate differential has driven a sharp decline in the U.S. dollar this year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":186,"featured_media":207957,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[146,147,8,12,148,7],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[429],"class_list":["post-207956","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-j-p-morgan-asset-management"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v28.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Weekly Market Recap: Week of September 22, 2025<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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