{"id":207875,"date":"2025-09-17T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-17T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/fomc-dots-dissents-and-discussion\/"},"modified":"2025-09-22T08:18:49","modified_gmt":"2025-09-22T08:18:49","slug":"fomc-dots-dissents-and-discussion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/fomc-dots-dissents-and-discussion\/","title":{"rendered":"FOMC: Dots, Dissents, and Discussion"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>It\u2019s here!&nbsp; After weeks of discussion about the likelihood and magnitude of a rate cut at today\u2019s FOMC meeting, the day is upon us.&nbsp; It is difficult to expect anything other than a 25-basis point cut, even though the market is assigning a slight probability to a larger one.&nbsp; Instead, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/all-eyes-on-the-fomc\/\">as we discussed at length yesterday<\/a>, there is likely to be more drama surrounding the \u201cdot plot\u201d, dissents, and of course, Chair Powell\u2019s discussion afterwards.&nbsp; Do options traders seem at all concerned?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The short answer to that question seems to be, \u201cnot really.\u201d&nbsp; For starters, we see the market assigning peak probabilities for S&amp;P 500 (SPX) closes today and Friday above the current level of 6600.&nbsp; This has become typical during the past few months.&nbsp; Heck, if we seem to go up every day, why shouldn\u2019t options probabilities reflect that?&nbsp; Thus, the IBKR Probability Labs shows peak outcomes of 6605-6615 for today and 6620-6625 for Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ibkr-probability-lab-for-spx-options-expiring-september-17-2025\"><strong><em>IBKR Probability Lab for SPX Options Expiring September 17, 2025<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1078\" height=\"567\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture1-7.png\" alt=\"IBKR Probability Lab for SPX Options Expiring September 17, 2025\" class=\"wp-image-207879 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/09\/Picture1-7.png 1078w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/09\/Picture1-7-700x368.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/09\/Picture1-7-300x158.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/09\/Picture1-7-768x404.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1078px) 100vw, 1078px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1078px; aspect-ratio: 1078\/567;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/em> <em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ibkr-probability-lab-for-spx-options-expiring-september-19-2025\"><strong><em>IBKR Probability Lab for SPX Options Expiring September 19, 2025<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1065\" height=\"570\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture2-5.png\" alt=\"IBKR Probability Lab for SPX Options Expiring September 19, 2025\" class=\"wp-image-207878 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/09\/Picture2-5.png 1065w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/09\/Picture2-5-700x375.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/09\/Picture2-5-300x161.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/09\/Picture2-5-768x411.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1065px) 100vw, 1065px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1065px; aspect-ratio: 1065\/570;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/em> <em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even though the market is biased to expect an up move, there is nonetheless a fair amount of volatility priced into near-term options.&nbsp; We see a steep skew with a downside bias in options expiring today and something similar, though with less magnitude, for options expiring Friday.&nbsp; At-money options for today are implying a 2.5% intraday move, while those expiring Friday imply 1.2% daily moves between now and the end of the week.&nbsp; These compare with a 0.8% daily volatility priced into monthly options expiring in October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-skews-for-spx-options-expiring-september-17-th-top-september-19-th-middle-october-17-th-2025-bottom\"><strong><em>Skews for SPX Options Expiring September 17<sup>th<\/sup> (top), September 19<sup>th<\/sup> (middle), October 17<sup>th<\/sup>, 2025 (bottom)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1009\" height=\"534\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture3-2.png\" alt=\"Skews for SPX Options Expiring September 17th (top), September 19th (middle), October 17th, 2025 (bottom)\" class=\"wp-image-207877 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/09\/Picture3-2.png 1009w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/09\/Picture3-2-700x370.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/09\/Picture3-2-300x159.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/09\/Picture3-2-768x406.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1009px) 100vw, 1009px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1009px; aspect-ratio: 1009\/534;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Using recent history as a guide, it appears as though options expiring today have relatively high implied volatilities, but relatively low for the three-day period that follows the meeting.&nbsp; The table below shows the 1- and 3-day moves that followed FOMC meetings since December 2021.&nbsp; Bearing in mind that volatility recognizes moves in either direction, we see that the average move on FOMC day is 1.25% over that period.&nbsp; That of course is well below the 2.5% priced into today\u2019s expiration.&nbsp; However, we see an average move of 1.8% on a directional basis and a 3.33% move on a high\/low basis. over the rest of the week \u2013 well above the 1.2% priced into Friday\u2019s expiration.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We broke out the corresponding values for weeks when the FOMC decision coincided with a quarterly expiration \u2013 as is the case this week \u2013 and saw little difference between those averages and the broader averages.&nbsp; Interestingly, the average of directional moves on FOMC day is basically zero.&nbsp; It\u2019s been roughly a coin flip as to whether the post-Fed move is up or down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"886\" height=\"1085\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/09\/Picture4.png\" alt=\"1 and 3 day changes after previous FOMC Meetings\" class=\"wp-image-207876 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/09\/Picture4.png 886w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/09\/Picture4-700x857.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/09\/Picture4-300x367.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/09\/Picture4-768x940.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 886px) 100vw, 886px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 886px; aspect-ratio: 886\/1085;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/em> <em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It\u2019s here!\u00a0 After weeks of discussion about the likelihood and magnitude of a rate cut at today\u2019s FOMC meeting, the day is upon us.\u00a0 It is difficult to expect anything other than a 25-basis point cut, even though the market is assigning a slight probability to a larger one.\u00a0 Instead, as we discussed at length yesterday, there is likely to be more drama surrounding the \u201cdot plot\u201d, dissents, and of course, Chair Powell\u2019s discussion afterwards.\u00a0 Do options traders seem at all concerned?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":11364,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[145,146,147,18,8,12,148,7],"tags":[788,3214,3215,795,398],"contributors-categories":[149],"class_list":{"0":"post-207875","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-options","11":"category-region","12":"category-securities","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-fomc-meeting","16":"tag-options-volatility","17":"tag-probability-lab","18":"tag-rate-cut","19":"tag-spx","20":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast 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