{"id":207846,"date":"2025-09-16T13:00:34","date_gmt":"2025-09-16T17:00:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/all-eyes-on-the-fomc\/"},"modified":"2025-09-17T09:43:03","modified_gmt":"2025-09-17T09:43:03","slug":"all-eyes-on-the-fomc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/all-eyes-on-the-fomc\/","title":{"rendered":"All Eyes on the FOMC"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>It\u2019s always tempting to think that the next upcoming market event is among the most consequential ever.&nbsp; We will try to resist the hyperbole ahead of tomorrow\u2019s FOMC announcement, but it is fair to say that there is quite a bit riding upon its outcome.&nbsp; The Federal Reserve last cut rates in December, and stock markets had quite a ride in the ensuing nine months.&nbsp; With another cut tomorrow seeming certain, the questions are more about what might come next.&nbsp; On that front, there is plenty of room for debate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As I write this late Tuesday morning, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\">CME Futures show<\/a> a 96.1% probability of a 25 basis point cut, with the additional 3.9% favoring a 50 bp cut tomorrow.&nbsp; The expectations for a larger cut peaked a week ago Friday at about 11% after the August jobs report and have been creeping lower in the ensuing days.&nbsp;The consensus seems pretty well baked in, and we have come to expect that the Fed has no interest in upsetting market consensus without a darn good reason for doing so.&nbsp; Political considerations aside, there does not appear to be a solid economic justification for either a larger move or a shocking \u201cno action\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Labor has clearly been stagnant at best, but a 4.3% Unemployment Rate is historically quite enviable. A cut could indeed spur some hiring, but it does not appear that the situation is dire enough to warrant aggressive measures.\u00a0 Meanwhile, considering the subtle but steady inflation pressures in recent reports \u2013 we have noted that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/todays-rally-is-based-on-a-whisker\/\">Core PCE and Core CPI have been inching higher<\/a> for each of the past four months \u2013 a larger cut could create concerns about laxity toward the Fed\u2019s \u201cstable prices\u201d goal.\u00a0 We\u2019ve frequently referred to Chair Powell as \u201cGoldilocks in a Suit\u201d, and 25 bp at this moment seems \u201cjust right\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The questions will then arise regarding the future path of rates.&nbsp; The FOMC will be releasing its Summary of Economic Projections, aka the SEP or \u201cDot Plot\u201d.&nbsp; The last release, in June, showed median projections of 3.875% for rates at the end of 2025 and 3.625% at the end of 2026. &nbsp;Those are well above the market\u2019s expectations of 3.625% for the end of this year and 2.875% for the end of 2026.&nbsp; The latter figure likely reflects expectations that the next Fed Chair will hew more towards the President\u2019s goal of sharply lower rates, but the earlier projection also implies that tomorrow will begin a steady stream of rate cuts.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That may be a bit over-enthusiastic.&nbsp; Even with the last-minute official appointment of Stephen Miran to the Governor seat recently vacated by Adriana Kugler, the failed attempt to remove Lisa Cook might sharpen some of the other members\u2019 resolve toward expressing independence.&nbsp; That could lead to an even wider than usual spread in the dot plot and more dissents \u2013 positive AND negative \u2013 than usual.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, let\u2019s hear what Chair Powell has to say at the press conference.&nbsp; Frankly, he doesn\u2019t have many left before his term expires in the spring.&nbsp; My gut thinks it\u2019s almost certain that he will stress the need for central bank independence, which could temper expectations for near-term cuts, but do little for longer term expectations.&nbsp; It is more difficult to predict how he will portray the balance between pressures on both prices and labor.&nbsp; The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy-2025.htm\">FOMC\u2019s Statement of Goals<\/a> asserts that stable prices are a prerequisite to maximum stable employment.&nbsp; If he leans upon that, then stocks might not respond kindly.&nbsp; But if we get another appearance from Goldilocks, the punch bowl remains in place.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It\u2019s always tempting to think that the next upcoming market event is among the most consequential ever.\u00a0 We will try to resist the hyperbole ahead of 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debate.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":193510,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[145,146,147,8,12,148,7],"tags":[3815,363,674,396,795],"contributors-categories":[149],"class_list":{"0":"post-207846","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-dot-plot","15":"tag-federal-reserve","16":"tag-interest-rates","17":"tag-powell","18":"tag-rate-cut","19":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO 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He has held numerous roles in the organization since joining Timber Hill, IBKR\u2019s predecessor, in 1995 as Equity Risk Manager and an options market maker. He developed and implemented automated trading strategies for stocks and options before moving into his current role. Steve has guest authored several columns in Barron\u2019s and made numerous live on Bloomberg TV and Radio, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Fox Business, and several other media outlets in North America, Asia, Australia, and the Middle East in addition to being quoted frequently in print and electronic media. Prior to joining Interactive Brokers, Sosnick held senior trading roles at Morgan Stanley, Lehman Brothers, and Salomon Brothers, where he completed the firm\u2019s famed training program.","sameAs":["https:\/\/ibkr.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/author\/steve-sosnick\/"}]}},"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2024\/05\/FOMC.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/207846","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=207846"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/207846\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/193510"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=207846"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=207846"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=207846"},{"taxonomy":"contributors-categories","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/contributors-categories?post=207846"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}