{"id":207827,"date":"2025-09-15T13:01:35","date_gmt":"2025-09-15T17:01:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/major-themes-today\/"},"modified":"2025-09-17T10:51:24","modified_gmt":"2025-09-17T10:51:24","slug":"major-themes-today","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/major-themes-today\/","title":{"rendered":"Major Themes Today"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

On many days we have one major narrative driving the day\u2019s activity.  On some days we struggle to find any.  Today I\u2019ve been asked to discuss several major issues even beyond the ever-present considerations about Wednesday\u2019s FOMC meeting.  In rough order, the topics included the FOMC (of course), China\u2019s ruling that Nvidia (NVDA) violated monopoly rules<\/a> amidst high-level trade negotiations<\/a>, the revelation that Elon Musk bought $1 billion worth<\/a> of Tesla (TSLA) shares, and the President\u2019s musing about a move to semi-annual rather than quarterly<\/a> earnings reports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My first comments came in a media appearance very early today<\/a>.\u00a0 Foremost of course what the FOMC might do this week.\u00a0 We\u2019ve discussed our assertion that a \u201chawkish cut\u201d is the most likely scenario because prices — as measured by Core PCE and Core CPI — continue to creep higher at a faster pace than the Fed\u2019s desired target, and I reiterated that to the TV audience.\u00a0 As for the trade talks, the early reports were that progress was being made, but that at the same time we learned that a preliminary investigation by Chinese regulators found that NVDA\u2019s 2020 acquisition of Mellanox violated antitrust conditions.\u00a0 My initial reaction was that the timing seemed like a bit of a negotiating ploy to increase China\u2019s leverage on a key US export industry.\u00a0 That seems to be the prevailing mood as the morning wore on.\u00a0\u00a0 NVDA was only modestly lower in the pre-market; we now find it roughly unchanged at midday and the SOX semiconductor index about \u00bd% higher.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have since learned that an agreement regarding a TikTok divestiture may have been reached, and that Presidents Trump and Xi plan to discuss it on Friday.  That is not necessarily market moving, but it is encouraging to learn that two key world leaders will be having a discussion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shortly after, we learned about Elon Musk\u2019s purchase of $1 billion worth of shares on Friday.  My take to a reporter was \u201cwhat\u2019s a billion dollars if it can earn you a trillion?\u201d  From a trading standpoint, it was a well-timed purchase.  The stock was in a nascent uptrend before Friday, and it is probably fair to assume that Musk\u2019s buys were the impetus for the breakout above May\u2019s highs.  (It\u2019s probably not a coincidence that the stock is consolidating today\u2019s gains around the $420 level either.)  It\u2019s quite possible that Musk\u2019s holdings are already in the black by more than the $1 billion he just spent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

TSLA 6-Months, Daily Candles<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em>. Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The President\u2019s call for a shift to twice-annual rather than quarterly earnings reports from public companies seemed to come from out of the blue.  In fact, this is a topic that arose during his first term.  In a 2018 Twitter post, Trump asked the SEC<\/a> to study moving from a quarterly to a six-month reporting cycle.  It obviously was never implemented.  The original rationale was that the change would save companies money, and that was part of his rationale today.  The second part seemed a bit odd, though:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Did you ever hear the statement that, ‘China has a 50 to 100 year view on management of a company, whereas we run our companies on a quarterly basis???’ Not good!!!<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I can\u2019t imagine that making America\u2019s financial system more like China\u2019s was on most investors\u2019 bingo cards.  But it\u2019s not only China that has this more relaxed requirement \u2013 the UK and EU do as well. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

When asked how this might affect investors, my response was that it might add difficulty for institutional investors and analysts who prefer quarterly updates and guidance but matter little to smaller investors.  That said, it could increase single-stock volatility around earnings dates.  With fewer updates to corporate performance and guidance, it would be understandable if each of them brought more uncertainty.  That is at best a hypothesis at this point. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As of now, we can see that investors are taking all this in stride.  Stocks rose steadily in the pre-market, then again as the market opened, and have since been holding onto their solid gains.  Note however that VIX has risen along with the S&P 500 (SPX) upon which it is based.  Perhaps the idea of \u201cdon\u2019t fight the tape, but insure against it<\/a>\u201d is in a bit of vogue today ahead of the FOMC meeting. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On many days we have one major narrative driving the day\u2019s activity.\u00a0 On some days we struggle to find any.\u00a0 Today I\u2019ve been asked to discuss several major issues even beyond the ever-present considerations about Wednesday\u2019s FOMC meeting.\u00a0 In rough order, the topics included the FOMC (of course), China\u2019s ruling that Nvidia (NVDA) violated monopoly rules amidst high-level trade negotiations, the revelation that Elon Musk bought $1 billion worth of Tesla (TSLA) shares, and the President\u2019s musing about a move to semi-annual rather than quarterly earnings reports.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":207828,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[145,146,147,8,12,153,148,7],"tags":[2467,2819,793,380,936],"contributors-categories":[149],"class_list":{"0":"post-207827","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-market-insights","8":"category-macro","9":"category-north-america","10":"category-region","11":"category-securities","12":"category-stocks","13":"category-text-articles","14":"category-traders-insight","15":"tag-antitrust","16":"tag-earnings-reports","17":"tag-fomc","18":"tag-nvidia","19":"tag-tesla","20":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMajor Themes Today | Traders' Insight<\/title>\n<meta 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