{"id":207694,"date":"2025-09-09T07:50:48","date_gmt":"2025-09-09T07:50:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=207694"},"modified":"2025-09-10T11:27:36","modified_gmt":"2025-09-10T11:27:36","slug":"while-corn-yield-expectations-trend-higher-weather-remains-a-key-factor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/commodities\/while-corn-yield-expectations-trend-higher-weather-remains-a-key-factor\/","title":{"rendered":"While Corn Yield Expectations Trend Higher, Weather Remains a Key Factor"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Originally Posted 02 September 2025 – While Corn Yield Expectations Trend Higher, Weather Remains a Key Factor<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At a Glance<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As of mid-August, almost a third of the U.S. corn crop is in dent stage<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Weather will play an important role in final crop development<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the August Crop Production report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) surprised many market participants by estimating a national average corn yield above trade expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the USDA\u2019s first survey-based report using both what farmers reported and its own drone-based surveys, the agency projected this year\u2019s corn crop could yield on average 188.8 bushels per acre (bpa), which would be at the high end of trade expectations. Prior to the report, the USDA had penciled in the trendline estimate of 181 bpa. If realized, 2025\u2019s yield would be a record and could result in a national corn crop of 16.7 billion bushels, up 1.8 billion from 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The USDA will fine-tune the national yield estimates each month until the final report comes out in January, but this first report gives market participants a sense of where the crop\u2019s size is trending. It\u2019s where the trading adage \u201cbig crops get bigger and small crops get smaller\u201d originates. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Considering that by early fall much of the corn crop is in its final development stage and nearing harvest, looking for a trend makes sense. For 2025, by mid-August, 28% of the U.S. corn crop was in dent stage \u2013 the last stage before final maturity \u2013 which is slightly ahead of the five-year average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since the USDA won\u2019t survey actual fields until the September crop report, the days between the August and September crop reports may see more active trading activity as weather changes could significantly affect actual harvest size.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ahead of these potentially market-moving reports, more market participants are turning to Ag Weekly options to manage short-term risk. A record 24k Monday-Thursday Weekly options were traded on June 30 when the Acreage Report was released, and the entire CME Group Weekly Ag options suite is up 36% from last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Ag<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Historical performance is not an indication of future performance.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Weather Is Key<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

With nearly a third of corn crop just reaching dent stage in late August, now is a critical time for development. Dent stage is where the kernels begin to dent at the top and take on their characteristic look as the crop starts to accumulate starch and dry matter. Research from Purdue<\/a> says at dent stage, dry matter content is only about 45% of the final weight and has about 30 more days before it is mature. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jim Roemer, publisher of WeatherWealth Newsletter, forecasts \u201cdecent\u201d harvest weather for the Corn Belt, with few scattered delays or wet weather. Harvest generally starts in September and continues through October. The potential for a very weak La Nina, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (the warmth or coolness of certain sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean) and weather patterns over Eurasia suggest drier-than-normal weather over 75% of the corn belt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This year was the second-wettest July on record, which helped crop growth during key development times. Roemer says historically, neutral El Nino or weak La Nina events, coupled with wet July corn belt weather, are often good for harvest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Seasonal<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most Recent in Agriculture<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crop Tours Showing Healthy Plants<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Ahead of the USDA\u2019s field surveys, private crop scouts<\/a> fan out in parts of the corn belt and two recent crop tours underscored what USDA\u2019s reports suggested: big healthy corn crops. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour 2025<\/a>, a four-day tour across key Corn Belt states during the third week of August, showed increases in 2025\u2019s estimated corn yields \u2013 estimates were higher than last year\u2019s figures for all seven states they visited, except Illinois, which was down 2.2% from 2024. Pro Farmer\u2019s average corn yield estimate is at 182.7 bpa, lower than USDA\u2019s 188.8 bpa figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AgResource conducts another closely watched tour of Illinois and Iowa, the country\u2019s two biggest producers. The firm\u2019s findings suggest that this year\u2019s crop could produce record yields. Dan Basse, founder of AgResource, says in a video<\/a> that the firm\u2019s scouts found several surprises, with the biggest one being a record number of ears in their survey plots. \u201cIt was really hard to find a blank stalk,\u201d he says, noting that kernels per ear were a record as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AgResource has ear counts dating back to 2015 and its research correlates well to USDA\u2019s data. Although the kernel depth is not as big as Basse would like, \u201cthere are so doggone many ears out there that it\u2019s still going to give us a very big yield, regardless of what some of the ears may weigh,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is some Southern Rust, a fungal disease impacting corn crops, in Iowa that could trim the state\u2019s yields slightly. When corn is in the dent stage, the disease may cut yields by 5% to 7%, but he doesn\u2019t think it will be a big deal. AgResource is estimating a corn yield in Illinois and Iowa of 244 bpa. \u201cThis is just a monster crop,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Do Big Crops Get Bigger?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The idea that big crops get bigger may be an old trading chestnut, but research from University of Illinois professors suggests that the facts are complicated, but overall, there is more lore than truth to the saying.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a farmdoc daily research report<\/a> from October 2024, \u201cRevisiting Big Corn and Soybean Crops Get Bigger,\u201d University of Illinois Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics professors Scott Irwin and Darrel Good looked at average yield forecasts in September and actual U.S. average yields as reported in USDA\u2019s final January crop data for the 54-year period from 1970 through 2023. They defined a big crop as one with an average yield (or yield forecast) above trend value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Their research shows that the variability of USDA yield estimates between September and January for market participants is too big to bank on the idea that big crops get bigger so early in the crop forecasting cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe evidence usually cited as justification for this marketing adage is actually backward-looking and biased because it is based on information \u2013 final January yield estimates \u2013 that is not available in real-time,\u201d Irwin and Good wrote. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That happened last year, when late summer and early fall Corn Belt weather turned detrimental and what was expected to be a record national corn yield of 183.1 bpa turned out to be only 179.3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, they say the trend between August and September is a more accurate barometer of crop size. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf the September yield forecast for corn is above the August forecast, there is about a 70 percent chance that the final January yield estimate will also be above the September forecast,\u201d the professors wrote.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As of mid-August, almost a third of the U.S. corn crop is in dent stage
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