{"id":207585,"date":"2025-09-02T10:15:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-02T14:15:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/truflations-inflation-spike-rockets-to-7-month-peak-casting-doubt-on-fed-rate-cut-cheerleaders-says-jim-bianco\/"},"modified":"2025-09-04T09:08:45","modified_gmt":"2025-09-04T09:08:45","slug":"truflations-inflation-spike-rockets-to-7-month-peak-casting-doubt-on-fed-rate-cut-cheerleaders-says-jim-bianco","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/truflations-inflation-spike-rockets-to-7-month-peak-casting-doubt-on-fed-rate-cut-cheerleaders-says-jim-bianco\/","title":{"rendered":"Truflation’s Inflation Spike Rockets To 7-Month Peak, Casting Doubt On Fed Rate-Cut Cheerleaders, Says Jim Bianco"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The President and founder of Bianco Research LLC.<\/strong>, Jim Bianco<\/strong>, is sounding the alarm on inflation, pointing to a recent surge in a real-time inflation metric as a challenge to hopes for Federal Reserve<\/strong> rate cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a series of posts on X, he argued that recent data, combined with larger structural changes in the economy, suggest the U.S. may be settling into a new normal where a 4% neutral interest rate is the standard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Truflation Inflation Index Flashes A Red Flag<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Bianco\u2019s immediate concern was sparked by the Truflation U.S. Inflation Index, an independent gauge that provides daily updates. On Aug. 31st, the index hit 2.31%, a seven-month high that he said was \u201cflashing a yellow to red flag on inflation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the index was revised down to 2.00% the following day\u2014a regular occurrence at the start of a month\u2014the initial spike highlighted the renewed upward pressure on prices. Bianco questioned whether the Fed could proceed with rate cuts if such trends continue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A New Normal With 4% Neutral Funds Rate?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Beyond the daily data, Bianco argued that the post-COVID economy represents a fundamental regime shift. He presented charts showing that inflation, real yields, and the real funds rate are now operating at a significantly higher and more volatile level than in the recovery periods following the 9\/11 attacks and the 2008 financial crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This structural change, he contends, marks \u201cthe end of the era of low inflation and zero to negative real interest rates.\u201d Based on this new landscape, Bianco suggested a major recalibration is needed, stating, \u201cThis would imply a neutral funds rate of at least 4% if the Fed could hit its 2% target.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Second Inflation Mountain To Follow?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Adding to the cautionary tone, other analysts are also warning of resurgent inflation. Apollo Chief Economist Torsten Slok<\/strong>, in a chart shared by Mike Zaccardi<\/strong>, drew a parallel between the current inflation pattern and that of the 1970s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Slok noted that after the first major inflation wave in the early \u201970s, a second, larger \u201cinflation mountain\u201d followed. The analysis raises concerns that the recent cooldown in price pressures might not be the end of the story, but merely a temporary lull before another significant surge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Price Action<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, experts still expect at least two rate cuts in 2025, bringing the interest rates below 4%<\/a>. But while markets celebrate the prospect of cheaper money, Creative Planning’s chief investment officer urged extreme caution, stating that when it comes to long-term predictions, Fed officials “don’t know any better than my seven-year-old.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The CME Group’s FedWatch tool<\/a>\u2018s projections show markets pricing a 91.8% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting the current interest rates for the Sept. 17 decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The tool also projects a 95.8% and 99.2% chance of easing in October and December meetings, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted September 2, 2025 – Truflation’s Inflation Spike Rockets To 7-Month Peak, Casting Doubt On Fed Rate-Cut Cheerleaders, Says Jim Bianco<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The President and founder of Bianco Research LLC., Jim Bianco, is sounding the alarm on inflation, pointing to a recent surge in a real-time inflation metric as a challenge to hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1578,"featured_media":202173,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[146,147,8,12,148,7],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[407],"class_list":{"0":"post-207585","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"contributors-categories-benzinga"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nTruflation’s Inflation Spike Rockets To 7-Month 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