{"id":207556,"date":"2025-08-29T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-08-29T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-hits-highest-since-february-threatens-powells-rate-cut-bet\/"},"modified":"2025-09-02T09:49:22","modified_gmt":"2025-09-02T09:49:22","slug":"feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-hits-highest-since-february-threatens-powells-rate-cut-bet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-hits-highest-since-february-threatens-powells-rate-cut-bet\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed&#8217;s Preferred Inflation Gauge Hits Highest Since February, Threatens Powell&#8217;s Rate Cut Bet"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-zinger-key-points\">Zinger Key Points<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Core PCE inflation rose to 2.9% in July, its highest since February, pressuring the Fed\u2019s 2% target.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Personal income grew $112.3 billion in July, while consumer spending surged $108.9 billion.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>An inflation reading closely tracked by the Federal Reserve climbed to its highest level since February, remaining stubbornly above the 2% target and raising new doubts around the timing of Jerome Powell&#8217;s&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/topic\/federal-reserve\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">anticipated interest rate cuts.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In July, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index\u2014the Fed&#8217;s broad measure of inflation\u2014increased 2.6% from a year earlier, right in line with Wall Street expectations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On a month-over-month basis, it climbed 0.2%, also matching forecasts, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the core PCE index, which excludes food and energy and is considered the Fed\u2019s preferred inflation gauge, increased to 2.9% year-over-year, up from 2.8% in June. This marked the highest reading since February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Monthly core PCE also stayed hot, rising 0.3%, the same pace as June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The numbers signal that inflation remains sticky, posing a challenge for the Federal Reserve, which has opened the door to rate cuts in the coming months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-consumer-income-and-spending-keep-rising\">Consumer Income And Spending Keep Rising<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal income rose $112.3 billion in July, or 0.4%, consistent with consensus forecasts. Disposable personal income, which subtracts taxes, also climbed 0.4%, a $93.9 billion increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Americans didn\u2019t hesitate to spend: personal consumption expenditures jumped $108.9 billion, or 0.5%, a touch higher than June&#8217;s revised 0.4%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Personal outlays, which include consumer spending, interest payments, and transfer payments, rose by $110.9 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Savings, however, edged lower: Americans saved $985.6 billion in July, down from previous months, bringing the personal saving rate to 4.4%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-where-did-consumers-spend-more\">Where Did Consumers Spend More?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Consumer spending saw gains across both goods and services in July. Here&#8217;s where the biggest increases occurred:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Motor vehicles and parts: +$34.9 billion<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Financial services and insurance: +$24.1 billion<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Housing and utilities: +$11 billion<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Health care: +$7.9 billion<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Food and beverages: +$9.7 billion<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Some categories, however, showed weakness. Spending on food services and accommodations dropped by $12.1 billion, while gasoline and energy goods declined $1.3 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-markets-set-to-open-lower\">Markets Set To Open Lower<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>U.S. stock futures moved modestly lower Friday morning as investors digested the latest inflation data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>By 8:40 a.m. ET, futures on the S&amp;P 500 were down 0.24%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.21%, and the Nasdaq 100 declined 0.35%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On Thursday, the S&amp;P 500 index closed 0.35% higher, hitting new record highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The U.S. dollar index edged up 0.1%, signaling some support from rising yields, while gold dipped 0.1% but stayed above the $3,400 per ounce mark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the bond market, Treasury yields rose slightly, with the benchmark 10-year yield increasing 3 basis points to 4.23%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Originally Posed August 29, 2025 &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.benzinga.com\/markets\/economic-data\/25\/08\/47411230\/pce-inflation-report-fed-favorite-gauge-july-2025-personal-income-spending\">Fed&#8217;s Preferred Inflation Gauge Hits Highest Since February, Threatens Powell&#8217;s Rate Cut Bet<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>An inflation reading closely tracked by the Federal Reserve climbed to its highest level since February, remaining stubbornly above the 2% target and raising new doubts around the timing of Jerome Powell&#8217;s anticipated interest rate cuts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1128,"featured_media":8335,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[146,147,8,12,148,7],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[407],"class_list":{"0":"post-207556","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-text-articles","12":"category-traders-insight","13":"contributors-categories-benzinga"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Fed&#8217;s Preferred Inflation Gauge Hits Highest Since February, Threatens Powell&#8217;s Rate Cut 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