{"id":207371,"date":"2025-08-26T10:58:57","date_gmt":"2025-08-26T14:58:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/what-the-quant-data-says-about-nvda-before-earnings\/"},"modified":"2025-08-28T15:12:46","modified_gmt":"2025-08-28T15:12:46","slug":"what-the-quant-data-says-about-nvda-before-earnings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/ibkr-quant-news\/what-the-quant-data-says-about-nvda-before-earnings\/","title":{"rendered":"What the Quant Data Says About NVDA Before Earnings"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

I joined Frank Holland on CNBC Worldwide Exchange this morning (Aug 26) to talk about NVDA ahead of earnings.\u00a0More on NVDA in a moment.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, taking the news of the day \u2013 President Trump\u2019s decision to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook<\/em> \u2013 why isn\u2019t the market more reactive?\u00a0 If there\u2019s hand-wringing over \u201cFed independence,\u201d one would think stocks would tank.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You quantitative traders know that it\u2019s not the way global electronic markets work<\/strong> (for more on how markets work, join the next live EDGE Demo<\/a> Most volume runs on automated algorithms. If there are minimal Demand\/Supply imbalances and no particular directional bias in derivatives bets or hedges, the market doesn\u2019t move.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And the market isn\u2019t a monolith. There are different purposes and time-horizons behind price and volume.<\/strong> Price isn\u2019t a metric. It\u2019s a consequence of behaviors. The way we measure data at EDGE, in the S&P 500, which is 90% of US market cap give or take, about 10% of the volume is Active stock-picking. Roughly 28% at present is Passive flows like ETFs, around 42% is Fast Trading machines like Citadel, and 20% is derivatives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Passive flows and derivatives have crept steadily up over the past year.<\/em>\u00a0 Why?\u00a0 Follow the money.\u00a0 Morningstar tracks monthly flows.\u00a0 Blackrock, State Street, Fidelity and Vanguard had a combined $63 BILLION of inflows in July alone, while big Active managers MFS, T Rowe Price and American Funds (owned by Capital Group) had outflows of $15 billion.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stock-pickers are thus forced to sell things, while ETF managers are continuously looking to buy \u2013 and they mostly (90%) buy large caps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ETFs added $2 trillion of assets over the trailing 12 months in the US, and assets are $12 trillion now. That\u2019s money relentlessly directed at Target Date funds and other retirement and investment vehicles.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Put the picture together.<\/strong>\u00a0 Firms like Citadel set prices by \u201ccrossing the spread\u201d to buy from one party and sell to the other between the bid and offer, taking a tenth of a penny from each side (and it could be just other high-speed traders).\u00a0 Money flows to ETFs that use baskets of stocks as the pricing mechanism, a statistical sample.\u00a0 Adding derivatives, covered-call strategies assets of which have exploded by more than 200% in the past three years, sell derivatives against assets to generate yield.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What would you see?\u00a0 Narrow spreads, an upward bias to the market, and a lot of derivatives. Son of a gun.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Only ONE thing derails this market. <\/strong>\u00a0Falling prices. Go ahead and laugh! It\u2019s true.\u00a0 If prices fall, money stops flowing to equities and firms stop using covered-call strategies. Well, what causes prices to fall? \u00a0One thing. I don\u2019t know what that one thing is! But it only takes one thing.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Could it be NVDA?\u00a0 <\/strong>I told Frank on CNBC that NVDA Demand is the weakest since May and Supply is about 55%. That\u2019s a SHORT bias. Doesn\u2019t mean the stock will fall. I can make a huge BULL case for NVDA.\u00a0 But. It means there\u2019s a Demand\/Supply imbalance.\u00a0 Historically, when Demand falls below 5.0, NVDA stalls or declines.\u00a0 It last happened in May, though that was the end of an extended weak-Demand stretch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So.\u00a0 We\u2019ll see.\u00a0 It\u2019s hard to derail the upward bias of relentless ETF flows. But it only takes one thing.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

PS \u2013 Visit marketstructureedge.com<\/a> and sign up for our free daily Market Desk Note.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Passive flows and derivatives have crept steadily up over the past year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1157,"featured_media":207372,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[28,27,30],"tags":[1158],"contributors-categories":[636],"class_list":{"0":"post-207371","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-data-science","8":"category-ibkr-quant-news","9":"category-quant-development","10":"tag-fintech","11":"contributors-categories-market-structure-edge"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhat the Quant Data Says About NVDA Before Earnings<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Passive flows and derivatives have crept steadily up over the past year.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, 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