{"id":207303,"date":"2025-08-25T19:30:49","date_gmt":"2025-08-25T19:30:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/?p=207303"},"modified":"2025-08-25T19:30:51","modified_gmt":"2025-08-25T19:30:51","slug":"will-powells-speech-be-a-rally-killer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/podcasts\/will-powells-speech-be-a-rally-killer\/","title":{"rendered":"Will Powell\u2019s Speech Be a Rally Killer?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Join Andrew Wilkinson and Kevin Davitt of Nasdaq as they unpack tech earnings, Nvidia\u2019s AI gold rush, and what the Fed\u2019s next move could mean for investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-audio\"><audio controls src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/08\/midweekpod-20250821-davitt_EU_mixdown.mp3\"><\/audio><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-summary-ibkr-podcasts-ep-286\">Summary \u2013 IBKR Podcasts Ep. 286<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Welcome to this midweek podcast. My name\u2019s Andrew Wilkinson with Interactive Brokers, and joining me from Chicago is Kevin Davitt, Head of Index Options Content from Nasdaq. How are you, Kevin?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-davitt-nbsp\"><strong>Kevin Davitt<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I am very well, Andrew. Thank you for having me back. I have no complaints in the world.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-0\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The weather\u2019s cooled a little bit, and I think we could probably say the same of the market. Earnings have been very strong in general, but is there anything in the tech space that\u2019s been a standout for you\u2014or indeed, have there been any red flags?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-davitt-nbsp-0\"><strong>Kevin Davitt<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Interesting question. It\u2019s funny because it seems like now, and it has been a good few weeks since the primary drivers of the market over the past\u2014let\u2019s call it nearly three years\u2014have reported. In my mind, the past quarter standout would have been Meta.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It seems like there\u2019s a \u201crubber meets the road\u201d moment in the not-too-distant future, where investors are expecting these firms to figure out how to monetize their AI spending. Looking back on these Q2 reports, I recall Meta and its performance of late really being a standout. It became another one of the $4 trillion market cap names, rewarded for their compute spend of late.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And then I have to point out that next week we will get Nvidia. That sort of tail end of the earnings season\u2014that fulcrum, that focal point\u2014continues to be really interesting. I was having a conversation recently comparing the past few years\u2019 focus on AI to a gold rush. And the old saying is that during a gold rush, you want to be selling picks and shovels. Nvidia is really in that business. Every quarter it\u2019s fascinating to see what sort of spend the industry has had, and how much of that runs through Nvidia chips.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-1\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>There\u2019s a reason I asked that question at the outset, Kevin. It seems once again that it\u2019s the big tech names dragging the overall market down. What\u2019s your take?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-davitt-nbsp-1\"><strong>Kevin Davitt<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I don\u2019t disagree whatsoever, but I\u2019d put that in perspective. Since the April lows, breadth has improved. The market rally has broadened over the past couple of weeks. Now we\u2019re talking mid to late August, and over the past handful of days, there has been a rotation out of momentum names and some of the other leaders.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019m thinking of something like Palantir, which has been an all-star year-to-date, but over the past handful of days has been under some pressure. One of the most important things to consider when you\u2019re talking about investing versus trading is: what\u2019s my timeframe?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For those who look at this as a trading market, it has been potentially rewarding. Sure, some of the wind has come out of the sails of a handful of those names. Do I think it\u2019s time for concern? Probably not yet. But this point in the year\u2014historically, this back-to-school through September\/October period\u2014has seen a number of challenges. It\u2019s something I\u2019ll certainly keep an eye on, to see if there\u2019s another leg lower.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-2\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I recall last year, at the end of August, we got the Wyoming Summit of Central Banks\u2014and same again this year. It always seems to come with concern that Jerome Powell will say something investors don\u2019t like on Friday. He takes the platform again. I\u2019m not even sure what he\u2019s talking about this time, but are you expecting a negative reaction?&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-davitt-nbsp-2\"><strong>Kevin Davitt<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I think it\u2019s funny that two people who follow markets closely\u2014you and I\u2014can\u2019t say exactly what that speech will focus on. For the audience, this is an annual Federal Reserve Symposium in a really beautiful part of the country. Powell will talk about what central bankers always talk about: economic activity trends and the data that matters to them.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We get that information week after week. This year is arguably unique because there has been unusual attention paid to the administration\u2019s desire for the U.S. central bank to start cutting rates, which has already happened in other developed markets\u2014I\u2019m thinking about Europe right now.&nbsp;Do I think Powell\u2019s remarks will be a big deal? Generally, Fed events become a non-event after the fact, but there is concern going into it, and markets always look for potential catalysts. Do I think this will be a real inflection point? Probably not.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We have easy ways to track the probability of future rate cuts. The September Fed meeting is currently pricing in about an 85% chance of a 25-basis-point cut. Might we get some clarity, with that probability moving slightly one way or the other? Sure. But will we see some earth-shattering move? I genuinely doubt it.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-3\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>You used the expression \u201cnon-event,\u201d and that\u2019s exactly it. If it\u2019s a non-event, we can move forward. Whether that means up, I\u2019m not sure\u2014probably does. But if it is an event, that\u2019s the scary thing.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kevin Davitt from Nasdaq, thank you very much for joining me this week.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-kevin-davitt-nbsp-3\"><strong>Kevin Davitt<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Thanks for having me, Andrew.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-andrew-wilkinson-nbsp-4\"><strong>Andrew Wilkinson<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Alright, to the audience\u2014don\u2019t forget, subscribe if you like this podcast wherever you download your podcasts. Bye for now.&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Join Andrew Wilkinson and Kevin Davitt of Nasdaq as they unpack tech earnings, Nvidia\u2019s AI gold rush, and what the Fed\u2019s next move could mean for investors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":111,"featured_media":207304,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[57,59],"tags":[3767,2653,363,3733,674,3768,2919,3434,3769,3770],"contributors-categories":[149,342],"class_list":{"0":"post-207303","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ibkr-podcasts","8":"category-podcasts","9":"tag-ai-gold-rush","10":"tag-fed-rate-cuts","11":"tag-federal-reserve","12":"tag-interactive-brokers-podcast","13":"tag-interest-rates","14":"tag-jackson-hole-smposim","15":"tag-jerome-powell","16":"tag-market-rally","17":"tag-meta-earnings","18":"tag-nasdaw","19":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers","20":"contributors-categories-nasdaq"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Will Powell\u2019s Speech Be a Rally Killer? 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