{"id":207287,"date":"2025-08-22T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2025-08-22T14:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/the-case-for-luxury-stocks-while-theyre-still-on-sale\/"},"modified":"2025-08-27T12:13:31","modified_gmt":"2025-08-27T12:13:31","slug":"the-case-for-luxury-stocks-while-theyre-still-on-sale","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/the-case-for-luxury-stocks-while-theyre-still-on-sale\/","title":{"rendered":"The Case for Luxury Stocks While They\u2019re Still on Sale"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

If you\u2019ve been following the luxury sector, you\u2019ve probably seen your fair share of sobering news.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the surface, it may look like the era of high-end handbags and bespoke suits is coming to an end. But dig a little deeper, and a different story emerges\u2014one filled with possible opportunity for the patient, value-oriented investor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019ve studied markets for decades, and if there\u2019s one thing I know, it\u2019s that cyclical downturns have often presented the best entry points. I believe the current luxury slump is no exception. In fact, the data tells me we may be on the verge of a comeback.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Luxury\u2019s Slow Year May Be the Setup for Its Next Great Comeback<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Last year, global luxury sales posted their weakest performance since the 2008 financial crisis\u2014excluding the COVID years\u2014and 2025 isn\u2019t off to a roaring start, either. Bain & Company projects sales will shrink by another 2% to 5% this year. That\u2019s not what you\u2019d expect from an industry that\u2019s historically grown at twice the rate of global GDP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But here\u2019s the thing: This isn\u2019t the first time luxury has hit a soft patch, and in the past, it\u2019s come back stronger.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Take 2015, for example. Back then, consumers began to turn away from flashy logos, and major brands like Louis Vuitton were forced to rethink their design philosophy. The result? A pivot to more understated, timeless styles like the Capucines bag, now one of LV\u2019s bestsellers. Sales bounced back, and those who kept the faith were rewarded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Return of Chinese Tourists<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

No discussion of luxury is complete without China. Before the pandemic, Chinese travelers accounted for roughly two-thirds of their luxury spending outside of China. That changed when the pandemic hit, and many brands pivoted to local markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, with international travel picking up again, we may be on the cusp of a reversal. Chinese tourists are venturing back into Europe, where luxury goods often sell for 5% to 45% less than in China due to taxes and pricing strategies. That price gap could create an incentive to buy abroad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To be clear, sales in mainland China are still soft. Bain estimated a 20% drop last year, and some brands like Richemont reported a 23% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But we don\u2019t think the secular tailwind of rising wealth in China has gone away. In 2024 alone, over 141,000 new millionaires were minted in China\u2014more than 380 a day. Over time, that wealth could find its way into high-end purchases, whether from Western brands or increasingly popular domestic designers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

America\u2019s Quiet Wealth Boom<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Closer to home, the U.S. continues to lead the world in absolute wealth. According to the latest UBS Global Wealth Report, the country now boasts nearly 24 million millionaires\u2014more than the next seven countries combined. That\u2019s nearly 40% of the world\u2019s total.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

And that number is only expected to grow. UBS forecasts that 5.3 million Americans will join the millionaire club by 2029, a nearly 9% increase. This matters because luxury demand has tended to track wealth creation more than overall GDP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Good news, then, that financial markets are booming. The S&P 500 recently hit an all-time high, before Trump announced a new battery of tariffs. Bitcoin, often a leading indicator of risk appetite, touched $120,000. That tells me that investor confidence is healthy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When you pair that with a tax environment that favors high earners (thanks in part to the One Big Beautiful Bill), the case for luxury demand staying strong looks compelling, at least to me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mixed Financial Results<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Not all brands are hurting. Herm\u00e8s reported an 8% increase in revenue for the first half of 2025. Prada\u2019s total sales rose 9%, with its trendier Miu Miu line surging a whopping 49%. Even Richemont, which owns Cartier, saw group sales rise 6%, despite Chinese weakness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for the laggards, Gucci\u2019s sales fell 26% in the first half, dragging down Kering\u2019s overall numbers.  Some, like LVMH, are using this period to buy back shares. Bernard Arnault, the group\u2019s founder and CEO, has personally bought over $1 billion worth of LVMH stock this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As I often say, follow the money, especially when it\u2019s coming from insiders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally Posted August 11, 2025 – The Case for Luxury Stocks While They\u2019re Still on Sale<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Please consider carefully a fund\u2019s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. For this and other important information, obtain a fund prospectus by visiting\u00a0<\/em>www.usfunds.com<\/em><\/a>. Read it carefully before investing. <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mutual fund investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. Stock markets can be volatile and share prices can fluctuate in response to sector-related and other risks as described in the fund prospectus. Foreign and emerging market investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and less public disclosure, as well as economic and political risk. Companies in the consumer discretionary sector are subject to risks associated with fluctuations in the performance of domestic and international economies, interest rate changes, increased competition and consumer confidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fund portfolios are actively managed, and holdings may change daily. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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