{"id":206866,"date":"2025-08-05T09:45:00","date_gmt":"2025-08-05T13:45:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/mind-on-the-market-valuation-tension-in-resilient-credit\/"},"modified":"2025-08-06T16:48:43","modified_gmt":"2025-08-06T16:48:43","slug":"mind-on-the-market-valuation-tension-in-resilient-credit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/mind-on-the-market-valuation-tension-in-resilient-credit\/","title":{"rendered":"Mind on the Market: Valuation tension in resilient credit"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Structural changes in the lending landscape post-the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) significantly reshaped the high yield (HY) bond market, particularly influencing HY credit quality composition. The rise of leveraged loans and private credit introduced new avenues for debt financing as well as new competition, resulting in favorable terms for lower quality borrowers. This dynamic has contributed to elevated overall credit quality within the high yield index. The influx of fallen angels during the COVID crisis further reinforced this trend, as investment-grade (IG) bonds were downgraded into the high yield universe. Collectively, these developments contributed to structurally tighter spreads across credit markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"550\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/chart-of-the-week-1-1100x550.png\" alt=\"High Yield credit chart\" class=\"wp-image-206868 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/08\/chart-of-the-week-1-1100x550.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/08\/chart-of-the-week-1-700x350.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/08\/chart-of-the-week-1-300x150.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/08\/chart-of-the-week-1-768x384.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/08\/chart-of-the-week-1-1536x768.png 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/08\/chart-of-the-week-1.png 1800w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/550;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-weekly-highlights\">Weekly highlights<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Total Return YTD: Bloomberg US Treasury Index<\/strong> 3.34% <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Data as of July 30, 2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Total Return YTD: Bloomberg US IG Corporate Index<\/strong> 4.18%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Data as of July 30, 2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Total Return YTD: Bloomberg US HY Corporate Index<\/strong> 5.01%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Data as of July 30, 2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Where we stand on credit markets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">High yield and investment grade (IG) credit have outperformed Treasuries YTD as spreads tightened significantly after initially widening post liberation day. The Bloomberg US Corporate HY index option-adjusted spread (OAS) currently sits at 278bps while US Corporate IG spreads are 76bps. This is tighter than 96% and 99% of daily spreads, respectively, over the last 20 years. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From a fundamental perspective, corporate balance sheets and earnings overall remain healthy for both IG and HY issuers. However, we are starting to see some softening in this data. IG earnings growth has slowed, although notably it has avoided outright contraction, while margins and debt service capacity have showed some deterioration (figure 1).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"550\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/08\/figure-1-us-investment-g-1100x550.jpeg\" alt=\"US investment grade corporate fundamentals\" class=\"wp-image-206867 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/08\/figure-1-us-investment-g-1100x550.jpeg 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/08\/figure-1-us-investment-g-700x350.jpeg 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/08\/figure-1-us-investment-g-300x150.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/08\/figure-1-us-investment-g-768x384.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/08\/figure-1-us-investment-g-1536x768.jpeg 1536w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/08\/figure-1-us-investment-g.jpeg 1800w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/550;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">&#8212;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Originally Posted on August 1, 2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Credit markets remain supported by strong fundamentals and healthy demand, but tight spreads and rich valuations limit upside, prompting a cautious stance on credit exposure amid signs of softening in earnings and consumer health.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1515,"featured_media":206868,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[146,147,8,12,148,7],"tags":[],"contributors-categories":[462],"class_list":["post-206866","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-macro","category-north-america","category-region","category-securities","category-text-articles","category-traders-insight","contributors-categories-state-street-global-advisors"],"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Mind on the Market: Valuation tension in 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