{"id":206675,"date":"2025-07-29T12:42:06","date_gmt":"2025-07-29T16:42:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/uncategorized\/yes-they-do-care\/"},"modified":"2025-08-01T14:15:35","modified_gmt":"2025-08-01T14:15:35","slug":"yes-they-do-care","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/macro\/yes-they-do-care\/","title":{"rendered":"Yes, They Do Care"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>As investors prepare for a deluge of consequential data this week \u2013 in the next three days, really \u2013 some may be surprised by the relative complacency shown by volatility measures.&nbsp; Bearing in mind our standard disclaimer that \u201cVIX is not a fear gauge, it just plays one on TV\u201d, there is a reasonable rationale for the apparent ennui.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I am typing this with the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) displaying a reading below 15.&nbsp; Mind you, this is ahead of a three-day stretch that includes, among other items:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Tomorrow: 2Q GDP before the open; an FOMC rate decision and Powell press conference at 2pm EDT; earnings from Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META) after the close<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Thursday:&nbsp; Core PCE before the open; earnings from Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) after the close<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Friday: The July jobs report, including Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment, before the open; University of Michigan Sentiment at 10am EDT<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The current 14.97 is not exactly the lowest level for this calendar year \u2013 that would be the 14.58 level that was touched on January 24th \u2013 but we are awfully close.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-vix-1-year-daily-candles\"><strong><em>VIX, 1-Year, Daily Candles<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"619\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture4-2-1100x619.png\" alt=\"VIX, 1-Year, Daily Candles\" class=\"wp-image-206676 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/Picture4-2-1100x619.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/Picture4-2-700x394.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/Picture4-2-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/Picture4-2-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/Picture4-2.png 1330w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/619;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bearing in mind that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cboe.com\/tradable_products\/vix\/\">Cboe defines VIX as<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>\u2026a calculation designed to produce a measure of constant, 30-day expected volatility of the U.S. stock market, derived from real-time, mid-quote prices of S&amp;P 500<sup>\u00ae<\/sup>&nbsp;Index (SPX<sup>\u2120<\/sup>) call and put options&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>some still might wonder why market expectations for volatility over the coming 30 days might be so low.&nbsp; Some may also be curious about why the VIX9D index, which uses the same methodology as VIX while using options with an average 9 days until expiry, is also relatively low.&nbsp; Its current 13.17 reading is well above February 14<sup>th<\/sup>\u2019s 11.38, but it is still hardly pricing in much volatility over this busy period:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-vix9d-1-year-daily-candles\"><strong><em>VIX9D, 1-Year, Daily Candles<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1100\" height=\"626\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture3-7-1100x626.png\" alt=\"VIX9D, 1-Year, Daily Candles\" class=\"wp-image-206678 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/Picture3-7-1100x626.png 1100w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/Picture3-7-700x398.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/Picture3-7-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/Picture3-7-768x437.png 768w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/Picture3-7.png 1330w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1100px) 100vw, 1100px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1100px; aspect-ratio: 1100\/626;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is where it becomes important to look below the surface to try to understand the reasons why the options market might display such a blas\u00e9 attitude toward the heavy news flow to come.&nbsp; There are a few possible reasons:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>It is typical for options traders to use historical volatility as the starting point for their expectations for future volatility.&nbsp; We\u2019ve all heard that \u201cpast performance is no guarantee of future results\u201d, but it is nonetheless a convenient basis for forward assumptions.&nbsp; Quite frankly, S&amp;P 500 (SPX) historical volatility on both a 30-day and 10-day basis is quite low.&nbsp; Bear in mind that SPX has not had a &gt; +\/-1% close since it rose by 1.11% on June 24<sup>th<\/sup> \u2013 over a month ago.&nbsp; We can assert that VIX is actually pricing in a relatively high premium vis-\u00e0-vis recent history:<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-spx-faint-grey-with-implied-volatility-white-10-day-yellow-and-30-day-orange-historical-volatility\"><strong><em>SPX (faint grey) with Implied Volatility (white), 10-day (yellow), and 30-day (orange) Historical Volatility<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1064\" height=\"573\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture2-10.png\" alt=\"SPX (faint grey) with Implied Volatility (white), 10-day (yellow), and 30-day (orange) Historical Volatility\" class=\"wp-image-206679 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/Picture2-10.png 1064w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/Picture2-10-700x377.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/Picture2-10-300x162.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/Picture2-10-768x414.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1064px) 100vw, 1064px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1064px; aspect-ratio: 1064\/573;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Interactive Brokers<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Related to the prior point, we have frequently asserted that VIX represents <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/asymmetric-risks-and-vix\/?query=vix%20demand%20for%20hedging&amp;query_id=MIcPy-csRLKhXNcCHROkUQ&amp;index=engine-name-placeholder&amp;user_token=MIcPy-csRLKhXNcCHROkUQ\">the demand for hedging protection<\/a> by institutions\u00a0 Just as there is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/options\/vix-an-umbrella-in-a-drought-is-nvda-a-rain-cloud\/?query=umbrella&amp;query_id=YBdwZdbuQn2biPPvWQOGCg&amp;index=engine-name-placeholder&amp;user_token=YBdwZdbuQn2biPPvWQOGCg\">little demand for umbrellas during a drought<\/a>, there is little demand for hedging protection during a steadily rising market.\u00a0 We\u2019ll know later this week if that is prudent or complacent.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Correlations are quite low.\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.eu\/campus\/traders-insight\/securities\/stocks\/complacency-or-correlation\/?query=correlation&amp;query_id=Zn49NyrJQMKgWPjPrfe8XA&amp;index=engine-name-placeholder&amp;user_token=Zn49NyrJQMKgWPjPrfe8XA\">We have previously discussed<\/a> how the correlations between index components affect an index\u2019 volatility.\u00a0 An index with all its stocks moving together, even in modest amounts, can display higher volatility than one with volatile components moving in opposite directions.\u00a0 Thus, if the similarly sized AAPL and AMZN each move 5% after earnings, but in opposite directions, the net index effect would be roughly nil.\u00a0 That is similar to what occurred last week when Tesla (TSLA) fell but had a muted index effect because the larger Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) rose, but by less than TSLA\u2019s dip.\u00a0 The following chart, which we\u2019ve used before, shows how correlations, as measured by the Cboe\u2019s COR1M index, have been quite low.\u00a0 Perhaps there is a sign of concern that VIX is dropping more slowly than COR1M, something that presaged recent dips in SPX, but that is hardly conclusive.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-1-year-lines-vix-red-right-scale-cor1m-white-right-spx-green-left\"><strong><em>1-Year Lines, VIX (red, right scale), COR1M (white, right), SPX (green, left)<\/em><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1046\" height=\"547\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.interactivebrokers.com\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2025\/07\/Picture1-13.png\" alt=\"1-Year Lines, VIX (red, right scale), COR1M (white, right), SPX (green, left)\" class=\"wp-image-206680 lazyload\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/Picture1-13.png 1046w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/Picture1-13-700x366.png 700w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/Picture1-13-300x157.png 300w, https:\/\/ibkrcampus.eu\/campus\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/3\/2025\/07\/Picture1-13-768x402.png 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1046px) 100vw, 1046px\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1046px; aspect-ratio: 1046\/547;\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Source: Bloomberg<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Past performance is not indicative of future results<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As investors prepare for a deluge of consequential data this week \u2013 in the next three days, really \u2013 some may be surprised by the relative complacency shown by volatility measures.\u00a0 Bearing in mind our standard disclaimer that \u201cVIX is not a fear gauge, it just plays one on TV\u201d, there is a reasonable rationale for the apparent ennui.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":204245,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[146,147,8,12,153,148,7],"tags":[860,289,907,745,359],"contributors-categories":[149],"class_list":{"0":"post-206675","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-macro","8":"category-north-america","9":"category-region","10":"category-securities","11":"category-stocks","12":"category-text-articles","13":"category-traders-insight","14":"tag-earnings-season","15":"tag-economic-data","16":"tag-market-sentiment","17":"tag-vix","18":"tag-volatility","19":"contributors-categories-interactive-brokers"},"pp_statuses_selecting_workflow":false,"pp_workflow_action":"current","pp_status_selection":"publish","acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.9 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - 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